为什么美联储要为这次历史性的股市暴跌负责fxcue.com

越来越多的市场专家一致认为，美国股市自上周以来的历史性暴跌应归咎于美联储。自美联储上周在政策会议上决定将利率维持在目前的5.25%-5.50%区间不变以来，标准普尔500指数跌幅高达7%。同期，纳斯达克100指数跌幅高达10%。沃顿商学院教授杰里米·西格尔(Jeremy Siegel)对CNBC表示，美联储已经远远落后于形势，他认为美联储应该在未来两个月降息150个基点。"我呼吁紧急下调联邦基金利率75个基点，并暗示下个月在9月会议上再降息75个基点，这是最低限度。"西格尔称。西格尔认为联邦基金利率应该在3.50%-4%之间。西格尔长期以来一直批评美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在2021年和2022年通胀飙升期间加息太晚，现在他认为鲍威尔等待太久才降息是一个完全错误。“美联储什么时候开始了解经济状况了？”西格尔问道，“看看三年前发生的事情。市场比美联储知道得多，所以他们必须做出反应。”西格尔补充说:“如果他们在降息的过程中像在加息的过程中一样缓慢，顺便说一下，这是50年来的第一个政策错误，那么我们的经济就不会很好了。”当被问及股市下跌是否受到卡玛拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)赢得11月总统大选的可能性上升的推动时，西格尔重申，问题在于美联储，而不是即将到来的总统选举或地缘政治紧张局势，正如一些评论人士所暗示的那样。“我不认为这场竞赛，我不认为伊朗或日本是经济放缓的根源。我认为它就在华盛顿特区的美联储大楼里，这就是源头。”西格尔说。摩根大通(JPMorgan)策略师米斯拉夫·马泰伊卡（Mislav Matejka）在周一的一份报告中说，美联储今年上半年没有降息，将给下半年的经济增长带来压力，美联储未来的任何降息都可能是不够的。马泰伊卡说:“美联储将开始放松，但更多的是一种被动的方式，作为对经济增长疲软的回应，也就是说，它可能落后于曲线——这可能不足以推动经济反弹。”然而，尽管美联储可能“落后于形势”，但这可能是有意为之。这是因为鲍威尔想让市场相信，即使面对潜在的经济衰退，他仍决心遏制通胀，就像美联储前主席保罗·沃尔克(Paul Volcker)在上世纪80年代所做的那样。“到目前为止，鲍威尔的处境比沃尔克轻松得多，但他仍然需要传递同样的信息。这正在发生。似乎落后于曲线也有助于鲍威尔和联邦公开市场委员会推翻其最终降息将是出于政治动机的想法。”DataTrek联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯（Nicholas Colas）在周一的一份报告中表示。不管美联储等到9月份才降息的动机是什么，市场都在传递一个相当明确的信息。"越来越多的人认为，美联储在降息方面等待的时间太长，现在已经落后于形势。" Comerica Wealth Management首席投资官约翰·林奇（John Lynch）表示。

为什么美联储要为这次历史性的股市暴跌负责

在市场暴跌之前英伟达CEO黄仁勋在7月份卖出了创纪录的3.23亿美元股票

流行的“套息交易”正在平仓经济学家担心美联储降息可能会使情况变得更糟

为什么美联储要为这次历史性的股市暴跌负责

Australian Market Notably Higher

Swiss Market Ends Modestly Higher

日本央行在7月份讨论了进一步加息其中一位委员呼吁渐进加息至1%左右

Please sign in

Trader

Today's gold trading strategy: Short selling near 2630-2628, stop loss at 2636, target at 2620-2610. Suggest buying long at 2610-2612, stop loss at 2505, target at 2620-2625;

Gold first fell close to 2602 or 2594 and bought long, then rose close to 2624 or yesterday's high and sold short. Crude oil still tends to fluctuate mainly today, buying long below 68.8 or yesterday's low, and selling short above yesterday's high or 70.7.

Today, gold is mainly focused on rebound short selling, with a short-term focus on the resistance line of 2628-2633. If it does not break through, short selling can be done. The short-term focus below is on the first-line support of 2600-2595, and it is advisable to buy more lightly.

Short term focus on the resistance line of 70.5-71.0 above crude oil, and short-term focus on the support line of 68.4-67.9 below.

Spot gold is expected to rebound to 2620, short selling with a loss of 2627, short looking at 2606-00, target 2590-86; Short selling at 2631 with a loss of 2638, the target remains the same.

Buy more spot gold for profit and take profit

Spot gold operation strategy: 1. Gold rebounds 2638-2642, sell empty, stop loss 2651, target line 2588-2593; 2. Gold retraces to buy long at 2586-2593, stop loss at 2575, target at 2630-35 line;

Spot gold 2630 short, target 2618, stop loss 2635. Buy long at 2618-20, stop loss at 2612, target at 2630-40.

Tags

为什么美联储要为这次历史性的股市暴跌负责

﻿在市场暴跌之前 英伟达CEO黄仁勋在7月份卖出了创纪录的3.23亿美元股票

流行的“套息交易”正在平仓 经济学家担心美联储降息可能会使情况变得更糟﻿

为什么美联储要为这次历史性的股市暴跌负责

Australian Market Notably Higher

Swiss Market Ends Modestly Higher

日本央行在7月份讨论了进一步加息 其中一位委员呼吁渐进加息至1%左右

Please sign in

Trader

Today's gold trading strategy: Short selling near 2630-2628, stop loss at 2636, target at 2620-2610. Suggest buying long at 2610-2612, stop loss at 2505, target at 2620-2625;

Gold first fell close to 2602 or 2594 and bought long, then rose close to 2624 or yesterday's high and sold short. Crude oil still tends to fluctuate mainly today, buying long below 68.8 or yesterday's low, and selling short above yesterday's high or 70.7.

Today, gold is mainly focused on rebound short selling, with a short-term focus on the resistance line of 2628-2633. If it does not break through, short selling can be done. The short-term focus below is on the first-line support of 2600-2595, and it is advisable to buy more lightly.

Short term focus on the resistance line of 70.5-71.0 above crude oil, and short-term focus on the support line of 68.4-67.9 below.

Spot gold is expected to rebound to 2620, short selling with a loss of 2627, short looking at 2606-00, target 2590-86; Short selling at 2631 with a loss of 2638, the target remains the same.

Buy more spot gold for profit and take profit

Spot gold operation strategy: 1. Gold rebounds 2638-2642, sell empty, stop loss 2651, target line 2588-2593; 2. Gold retraces to buy long at 2586-2593, stop loss at 2575, target at 2630-35 line;

Spot gold 2630 short, target 2618, stop loss 2635. Buy long at 2618-20, stop loss at 2612, target at 2630-40.

Tags

关注我们的公众号

在市场暴跌之前英伟达CEO黄仁勋在7月份卖出了创纪录的3.23亿美元股票

流行的“套息交易”正在平仓经济学家担心美联储降息可能会使情况变得更糟

日本央行在7月份讨论了进一步加息其中一位委员呼吁渐进加息至1%左右