On Tuesday morning (August 13th), spot gold fluctuated at a high level in the Asian market, reaching a one week high of $2475.92 per ounce at one point; Gold prices rose over $40 on Monday, closing at $2471.89 per ounce, driven by safe haven inflows. Additionally, traders are waiting for this week's US inflation data, which may provide more information on the Federal Reserve's path to rate cuts.

Jim Wycoff, Senior Analyst at Kitco Metals, said, "What we see today in the gold and silver markets is some price support brought by bullish technical charts, with some technical buying triggered

Wycoff said, "There is also a need for safe haven due to the escalating tensions in the Middle East

On Monday, the Israeli military continued its operations near the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis, despite the international community pushing for an agreement to end the Gaza conflict and prevent it from escalating into a broader regional conflict with Iran and its proxies.

At the same time, the Ukrainian army rushed across the Russian border last Tuesday, sweeping through some areas of the Kursk region of Russia. This raid exposed the weaknesses of Russia's border defense in the region.

According to the FedWatch tool of Zhishang Institute, the market believes that there is a 49% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September.

US treasury bond bond yields fell on Monday, which also provided an opportunity for gold prices to rise. Investors will also pay attention to Tuesday's US producer price data and Wednesday's consumer price data to further understand the inflation situation. These data are crucial for Federal Reserve decision-makers to confirm whether it is necessary to adopt loose policies at the September meeting.

Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist of PGIM Fixed Income, said that treasury bond experienced a rebound of one and a half weeks, during which the fear of economic recession erupted, pushing the index yield to a 14 month low. Now investors are seeking to ensure the yield in order to prevent a possible economic recession.

Most investors don't have a deep impression of the soft landing in the 2000s, and they are considering: 'We need to buy now, lock in long end interest rates, even if a 200 basis point rate cut has been digested, because you know the situation will be worse than this,' "Tip said.

As the inflation rate approaches the Federal Reserve's 2% target and recent wage data shows that labor market tensions are easing, the pricing in the futures market is that at the next FOMC meeting in September, the Federal Reserve will lower the current 5.25% -5.50% federal funds rate by at least 25 basis points, with four 25 basis point rate cuts by the end of 2024, and a similar magnitude next year.

Due to the absence of a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee in August, market participants can only hope that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will express his intention at next week's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman slightly softened her usual hawkish tone on Saturday (August 10), pointing out that there have been some "welcome" further developments in inflation over the past few months, but she also stated that inflation remains "uncomfortably above" the central bank's 2% target and faces upward risks.

Guy LeBas, Chief Fixed Income Strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia, said, "The main catalyst for this week is Wednesday's CPI, which I describe as a 'check box' before a possible rate cut in September. As long as the CPI report is not tragic, I don't think the market will ultimately be greatly affected

The yield of the 10-year treasury bond bond closed at 3.904% on Monday, down 3.8 basis points. The yield rose by 15 basis points last week, the largest weekly increase since April. Last Monday, it was heavily sold off, falling to the lowest point since June 2023.

The yield of two-year treasury bond bonds, which usually changes in line with interest rate expectations, fell 4.4 basis points on Monday to 4.0089%. Last week, after falling to the lowest level since May 2023, it also recorded the largest weekly increase since March.

TD Securities stated in a report on Monday that due to the low breakeven yield, the actual yield looks very attractive. We expect the Federal Reserve to begin easing policy in September, thereby pushing down nominal and real interest rates. However, we expect interest rates to rise in the near future

Iranian senior military officer: Severe retaliation against Israeli regime 'imminent'

According to the Iranian English news television station "PressTV" on Monday, Khatam? Brigadier General Ali Shadmani, Deputy Coordinator of the Anbiya Central Command, stated in Russia on Sunday that Iran's severe retaliation against the Israeli regime for the assassination of Haniya is "rapidly unfolding".

He pointed out that "all aspects of this (retaliatory) measure are being considered and it will definitely happen." According to reports, the mission of the command is to plan and coordinate joint military operations within the Iranian armed forces.

White House officials: Ready for possible major attack by Iran this week

White House National Security Council spokesperson Kirby said on Monday that the United States is prepared to respond to a major attack that Iran or its Middle East proxies may launch this week.

Kirby said that after Iran and Hamas accused Israel of assassinating a Hamas leader in Tehran last month, the United States strengthened its military deployment in the region and shared Israel's concerns about possible attacks by Iran.

We share the same concerns and expectations with the Israeli side regarding the possible timing of (Iran's) attack, which could happen this week. We must be prepared for a series of major attacks that may occur. Of course, we do not want to see Israel being attacked like in April and having to defend itself. However, if they really encounter such a situation, we will continue to help them defend themselves

The military claims to be on high alert

On the evening of August 12th local time, Israeli military spokesperson Hagari issued a statement stating that the Israeli military is "closely monitoring regional developments, especially the movements of Hezbollah and Iran", and is currently "preparing at the highest level of offense and defense to respond to attacks".

Hagari stated that the Israeli Air Force has strengthened patrols over Lebanon to detect and intercept threatening targets. He also stated that as of now, there has been no change in the public safety instructions of the Israeli rear command center.

It is reported that Iran's preparations for an attack on Israel are similar to those in April

According to Axios Israeli journalist Barak Ravid citing senior US and Israeli officials on Monday, Iran has prepared missile and drone forces, similar to the measures taken before its unprecedented attack on Israel in April this year.

Ravid stated that officials emphasized that neither Israel nor the United States can predict the exact timing of Iran's retaliatory attacks.

Ravid also quoted a senior Israeli official as saying, "The Iranian side (on the ground) has publicly stated that they are determined to launch a major attack, and they have also publicly stated that this attack will exceed the one they launched in April. Iran's public statement does not reflect any concessions." Prior to this, on April 13-14, Iran launched about 300 missiles and drones at Israel, launching its first direct attack on Israel, most of which were shot down by Israel and its allies.

Foreign media: Iran and its proxies may attack Israel in the next 24 hours

According to Fox News, Western countries issued a joint statement on Monday warning Iran and its allies not to launch attacks that could further escalate tensions in the Middle East. The tense situation in the Middle East seems to be on the brink of collapse soon. Regional sources told reporters on Monday that they are concerned Iran and its proxies may attack Israel in the next 24 hours in retaliation for the killing of Hamas political leader Haniyeh in Tehran at the end of last month.

Putin claims that Ukraine's attack on Russia aims to enhance its position in ceasefire negotiations

Russian President Putin stated on Monday that Ukraine's largest attack on Russian territory since the outbreak of war is aimed at improving Kiev's negotiating position before possible peace talks and slowing down the pace of Russian military advances.

In his most detailed public speech on the invasion to date, Putin said that Ukraine is trying to improve its position "with the help of its Western masters" before possible negotiations.

He questioned what negotiations could be made with an enemy he accused of indiscriminately firing at Russian civilians and nuclear facilities.

Putin said, 'Of course, the main task of the Ministry of Defense is to drive the enemy out of our territory.' He added that the Russian military is accelerating along the rest of the 1000 kilometer main front.

He said, 'The enemy will definitely receive the response they deserve.' He expects Ukraine to further attempt to destabilize Russia's western border.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated that the war has now returned to Russia. He said that Ukraine's cross-border attacks are related to Ukraine's security, and Kiev has already occupied the area where Russia launched the attack.

His highest commander Oleksandr Syrskyi said that Ukraine controls 1000 square kilometers of Russian territory, far exceeding the number provided by Russian officials.

Alexei Smirnov, acting governor of Kursk, said that Ukraine controls 28 settlements in the region, with an invasion depth of about 12 kilometers and a width of about 40 kilometers.

In the Kursk region alone, 121000 people have already left or evacuated, and another 59000 people are in the process of evacuating. Thousands of civilians have also been evacuated from the Belgorod region of Russia adjacent to Kursk.

A Russian source familiar with official thoughts said that by attacking Russia, Ukraine is emboldening Russia's hardliners, who believe that any ceasefire negotiations are a waste of time and that Russia should further push towards Ukraine.

Russian officials say Ukraine is trying to show its Western supporters that it can still launch large-scale military operations, while Kiev and Moscow are facing increasing pressure to agree to negotiate a cessation of the war.

After more than two years of the most intense land war in Europe since World War II, both Moscow and Kiev have stated that they are considering possible negotiations, although there are still significant differences between the two sides in public regarding the form of a ceasefire.

Both sides are paying attention to the November US presidential election. Kiev is concerned that if Republican Trump wins, US support may weaken.

Trump has stated that he will end the war, and both Russia and Ukraine hope to gain the most advantageous negotiating position on the battlefield.

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