大卫·罗奇警告称：熊市将在2025年到来但美联储将在熊市变得“严酷”之前介入fxcue.com

资深投资者大卫·罗奇（David Roche）预计，由于降息幅度小于预期、美国经济放缓和人工智能泡沫，2025年将出现熊市。“我认为(熊市)可能会到来，但可能是在2025年。我们现在知道是什么原因导致了它。”这位量子战略公司（Quantum Strategy）的策略师周一在CNBC节目中说。罗奇预计美联储不会将利率降至市场期望的3.50%。根据CME FedWatch工具的数据，美联储对2025年的预期中值为4.1%，而目前几乎所有市场参与者都认为，到2025年9月，利率将低于4.1%。“第二件事是利润(不会)达到预期，因为经济将会放缓。”罗奇警告说。罗奇预计，将导致熊市的第三个因素是人工智能行业。罗奇说，它已经“果断地进入了泡沫地带”，它将在未来六个月左右退出，并将成为经济增长放缓的驱动因素之一。他说:“我认为这三个因素足以导致2025年的熊市下降20%，可能从今年年底开始。”他补充说，这一预测没有考虑谁将赢得11月的美国总统大选。美联储在最近一次议息会议上维持利率不变的决定上周受到质疑，因逊于预期的就业报告引发对衰退的担忧，导致市场大幅抛售，而日本加息后套息交易平仓也加剧了这一局面。不过，市场大幅回升，标普500指数上周收盘跌幅不到0.1%。现在，罗奇预计美联储将继续降息25个基点，然而，这也将导致利润率下降，这将在2025年逐步发生。他说:“如果你想让美联储降低利率，那么经济就必须放慢利率，劳动力市场必须放缓，利润率将面临压力。”罗奇表示，如果这些因素引发熊市，考虑到美联储官员、消费者和政界人士的痛苦阈值非常低，美联储将有应对的空间。他说:“如果情况比预期更糟，美联储很可能有足够的降息空间，美联储已经多次这样说过。”他补充说，这是否能决定性地扭转熊市还不确定，但它将阻止它成为“破坏和摧毁世界经济”的东西。

大卫·罗奇警告称：熊市将在2025年到来但美联储将在熊市变得“严酷”之前介入

“特朗普交易”正在消退

前日本央行董事会成员排除了今年再次加息的可能性

航运巨头马士基CEO表示美国货运需求没有衰退的迹象

沃伦·巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司目前持有的短期美国国债比美联储还多

美国石油日产量达到1340万桶创下历史新高

高盛称：从历史上看标普500指数下跌5%是逢低买入的好机会

大卫·罗奇警告称：熊市将在2025年到来但美联储将在熊市变得“严酷”之前介入

杰里米·西格尔不再呼吁美联储紧急降息

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12/27 Gold Day Short term Strategy Reference:1. First fall back, first see around 2623. Short buy again, lose 2615, target at 2643-2655-2673! 2. Rush high for the first time. Short sell at any time around 2655-58, with a loss of 2660. Target at 2643-2633-2623!

Buy long for spot gold at 2628 or 24, and sell short when it first rises close to 2644 or 2654. Last night, buy long around 2621 and sell short around 2639. Crude oil prices have increased from over 70 to 70.7, but short selling around 71 has not been achieved.

Buy near gold 2622, protect 2612, target 2634-2642;

Today's spot gold is in the short-term range of 2640-2620; Low absorption and high selling within the range; If it stabilizes at 2640-2645, it is necessary to buy long in the short term with a bullish trend; 2640-2645 is the position of the strong weak boundary point;

Today's spot gold operation is considering a pullback layout, with buying long orders as the main strategy and short selling high as a supplement. The upper focus is on the resistance of $2640-2657, and the lower focus is on the support of $2622-2613.

Last Friday's long gold trading took profit, and today's two short selling transactions also took profit, perfect

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大卫·罗奇警告称：熊市将在2025年到来 但美联储将在熊市变得“严酷”之前介入

“特朗普交易”正在消退

前日本央行董事会成员排除了今年再次加息的可能性

航运巨头马士基CEO表示 美国货运需求没有衰退的迹象

沃伦·巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司目前持有的短期美国国债比美联储还多

美国石油日产量达到1340万桶 创下历史新高

高盛称：从历史上看 标普500指数下跌5%是逢低买入的好机会

大卫·罗奇警告称：熊市将在2025年到来 但美联储将在熊市变得“严酷”之前介入

杰里米·西格尔不再呼吁美联储紧急降息

Please sign in

Trader

12/27 Gold Day Short term Strategy Reference:1. First fall back, first see around 2623. Short buy again, lose 2615, target at 2643-2655-2673! 2. Rush high for the first time. Short sell at any time around 2655-58, with a loss of 2660. Target at 2643-2633-2623!

Buy long for spot gold at 2628 or 24, and sell short when it first rises close to 2644 or 2654. Last night, buy long around 2621 and sell short around 2639. Crude oil prices have increased from over 70 to 70.7, but short selling around 71 has not been achieved.

Buy near gold 2622, protect 2612, target 2634-2642;

Today's spot gold is in the short-term range of 2640-2620; Low absorption and high selling within the range; If it stabilizes at 2640-2645, it is necessary to buy long in the short term with a bullish trend; 2640-2645 is the position of the strong weak boundary point;

Today's spot gold operation is considering a pullback layout, with buying long orders as the main strategy and short selling high as a supplement. The upper focus is on the resistance of $2640-2657, and the lower focus is on the support of $2622-2613.

Last Friday's long gold trading took profit, and today's two short selling transactions also took profit, perfect

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大卫·罗奇警告称：熊市将在2025年到来但美联储将在熊市变得“严酷”之前介入

航运巨头马士基CEO表示美国货运需求没有衰退的迹象

美国石油日产量达到1340万桶创下历史新高

高盛称：从历史上看标普500指数下跌5%是逢低买入的好机会

大卫·罗奇警告称：熊市将在2025年到来但美联储将在熊市变得“严酷”之前介入