On Friday morning (August 16th), spot gold fluctuated narrowly in the Asian market, currently trading at $2456.60 per ounce. The gold price fluctuated on Thursday, reaching a high near the 2470 mark during trading. However, due to strong performance in initial request data and "terror data", US bond yields rose, and the gold price fell to around $2432 at one point. Later, it was supported by bargain hunting and safe haven buying, closing at $2456.35 per ounce.

EverBank's Global Markets President Chris Gaffney said, "The optimistic retail sales indicate a strong economy, which has somewhat caused a shift in the market. The US dollar is recovering and gold is losing some luster

The US Department of Commerce reported that retail sales in the US increased by 1.0% last month, while the June data was revised down to a decrease of 0.2%.

In addition, a report from the United States Department of Labor showed that 227000 Americans had applied for unemployment benefits in the week ending August 10, an estimated 235000.

After the US data was released, the US dollar rose by 0.4%, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, while the yield of treasury bond bonds also jumped, and the yield of two-year treasury bond rose, hitting the biggest one-day increase in about four months. The yield of 10-year treasury bond bonds rose the most in several weeks.

Meanwhile, two Federal Reserve officials expressed support on Thursday for the possibility of a rate cut at next month's policy meeting, reversing their previous skepticism about prematurely lowering borrowing costs.

According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, the market believes that there is a 100% chance of the United States cutting interest rates in September. However, strong data has ruled out the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut.

From a technical perspective, at the daily level, gold prices have gained support near the 10 day moving average, reducing the risk of short-term downturns. There is an increased possibility of resistance near the historical high of 2483 in the future market. However, due to the overbought signal from KDJ and the weak red bar of MACD, if gold prices cannot remain above the 2480 level, it is still necessary to guard against the possibility of fluctuating and building a peak after rising and falling. The 10 day moving average support is currently around 2433.69, and attention should be paid to the support near the 21 day moving average of 2420. If this position is lost, it will increase the risk of short-term peaking.

This trading day focuses on the initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in August, the initial value of the annual total number of construction permits in July, and the annual total number of new housing starts in July in the United States. Pay attention to the speeches made by officials of the Federal Reserve and news related to geographical situation.

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States has fallen to a one month low, and hopes of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September have been dashed

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell to a new low in over a month last week, indicating that the labor market is still slowing down in an orderly manner, and also dashed financial market hopes that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 50 basis points next month.

Other data on Thursday showed that retail sales in July saw the largest increase in a year and a half, further demonstrating the resilience of the economy. The previously released data showed that the unemployment rate jumped to a nearly three-year high of 4.3% in July, raising concerns among investors about the economy entering or approaching a recession, but most economists do not agree with these concerns.

The economy has not derailed, "said Christopher Rupkey, Chief Economist of FWDBONDS. The labor market is not brewing a storm that could demand a significant 50 basis point interest rate cut“

The US Department of Labor reported that as of the week ending August 10th, the number of initial jobless claims in states decreased by 7000, adjusted for seasonal factors, to 227000. Economists previously predicted 235000.

The consecutive decline in the number of initial jobless claims for the second week erased the increase recorded in late July, which had caused the number of initial jobless claims to reach an 11 month high. The growth in July was mainly attributed to temporary shutdowns at car factories and disruptions caused by Hurricane Berrier's impact on Texas.

Last week, the number of unadjusted initial jobless claims decreased by 4500 to 1995300 due to a significant drop in the number of applicants in California, Texas, and Massachusetts.

The number of layoffs is still at a historical low, and the main reason for the slowdown in the labor market is the reduction of recruitment scale by enterprises and the surge in labor supply caused by immigration. The Federal Reserve has cumulatively raised interest rates by 525 basis points in 2022 and 2023, which has suppressed demand.

According to the FedWatch tool from Zhishang Institute, financial markets believe that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points at its policy meeting on September 17-18 has decreased from 41.5% before the data was released to 26%. They believe that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 74%, higher than the previous 58.5%.

Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer of Independent Advisor Alliance, said, "If the economy continues to remain resilient, especially in the case of slowing inflation, then the Federal Reserve can start a cycle of interest rate cuts without the economy falling into recession. History has shown that this is an extremely favorable environment for the stock market

However, the reduction in recruitment by companies means that unemployed workers find it harder to find new jobs.

The report on the application for unemployment benefits shows that as of the week ending August 3rd, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits decreased by 7000, and after seasonal adjustment, it was 1.864 million.

Nevertheless, the labor market continues to support consumer spending through still high wage growth. Another report from the Bureau of Statistics of the US Department of Commerce shows that retail sales in July increased by 1.0% month on month, the largest growth rate since January 2023. The June data was revised down to a decrease of 0.2%, while the previous value was flat.

Economists previously predicted that retail sales (mainly goods, unadjusted for inflation) in July would increase by 0.3% month on month.

Retail sales in July increased by 2.7% year-on-year. Factors such as falling inflation, bargain hunting, and consumers switching to lower priced alternatives have enabled consumption to be sustained.

Core retail sales, excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, increased by 0.3% in July after a 0.9% growth in June. Core retail sales are closest to the consumer expenditure portion of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The retail sales growth in July and the core retail sales growth in June have been confirmed, putting consumer spending on a higher growth track at the beginning of the third quarter.

Morgan Stanley economists have raised their forecast for the year-on-year growth rate of consumer spending in the third quarter from 2.1% to 2.8%. They raised their expected annual GDP growth rate for the same period from 2.1% to 2.3%. The year-on-year growth rate of consumer spending in the second quarter was 2.3%, contributing to the economic growth rate of 2.8% during the same period.

Although some economists point out that a decrease in savings indicates a weakening of consumer spending, data from the Bank of America Institute suggests otherwise.

It is worth noting that the decrease in savings and checking account balances is not entirely used for consumption, "the research institute said in a report.

Some households transfer funds to investment accounts with lower liquidity. Some households may also withdraw funds from their liquidity deposit accounts and invest them directly in stocks, bonds, and other financial assets.

The third report released by the Federal Reserve on Thursday showed that industrial production decreased by 0.3% month on month in July, and remained flat in June, which to some extent weakened the optimistic tone highlighted in previous reports.

However, due to the annual shutdown and maintenance period of the factory, coupled with the interference of Hurricane Berrier, automobile output has sharply declined, which is the main reason for the decline in industrial production. Excluding motor vehicle production, industrial production increased by 0.3% month on month.

Temporary disruptive factors should be reversed this month, "said Thomas Ryan, a North American economist at Capital Economics." Excluding these temporary factors This reinforces our view that an economic soft landing is the most likely outcome. "

US Treasury yields soar as data reshapes confidence in the economy

US treasury bond bond yields soared on Thursday as strong economic data almost dispelled fears of a hard landing and dampened expectations that the Federal Reserve would aggressively ease policy next month.

These data restore investor confidence that was hit by unexpectedly weak employment reports a few weeks ago, and strengthen the inflation improvement shown by the July Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) released this week.

This extinguished the hope of a 50 basis point rate cut in September. (I) still believe that a 25 basis point rate cut is reasonable because inflation continues to fall, and we have seen several good reports, with PPI and CPI reports adding icing on the cake, "said Steve Wyett, Chief Investment Strategist at Bok Financial in Tulsa, Oklahoma“

Scott Pike, Senior Portfolio Manager at Income Research&Management in Boston, said, "Although the daily increase is quite significant, given the recent decline in yields, this is only a small part of the lost ground that is reasonable for us

The yield of US 10-year treasury bond bonds rose 10.6 basis points to 3.928% on Thursday, the biggest increase in basis points in a week.

The yield of two-year treasury bond, which usually changes in line with interest rate expectations, hit the highest level since August 2 in the session. It rose 15.9 basis points to 4.1055% late Thursday, the largest increase since the 22.2 basis points rise on April 10.

Two Federal Reserve officials reversed their previous skepticism and expressed an open attitude towards the September interest rate cut

On Thursday, two more Federal Reserve officials were inclined to cut interest rates next month, as robust economic data prompted financial markets to further reduce their bets that the Fed would initiate a monetary easing cycle with a greater reduction in borrowing costs than usual.

St. Louis Fed President Musalem and Atlanta Fed President Bostic were more cautious than many of their peers about prematurely reducing borrowing costs.

Musa Lem stated at an event in Louisville, Kentucky that recent data has "boosted my confidence" that inflation is returning to the Federal Reserve's target level of 2%. Now it seems that the risk balance between inflation and unemployment has changed... The timing for adjusting to moderately restrictive policies may be approaching

However, Musalam quickly emphasized that the economy is still "performing very well" and pointed out that positive factors such as labor supply growth are partly responsible for the recent rebound of the unemployment rate to a post pandemic high of 4.3%.

Bostic stated in an interview with the Financial Times that he is "open" to a rate cut in September, which changes his previous expectation of reducing borrowing costs by 25 basis points in the fourth quarter of this year.

Now, inflation is entering the target range, and we must focus on another task. We have seen the unemployment rate rise significantly from its low point, "Bostic said." But this does make me think about the appropriate timing, so I am open to taking action before the fourth quarter

Bostic's speech was made before the latest weekly unemployment data was released. He added that if the pace of labor market weakness exceeds expectations, he will consider lowering interest rates by 50 basis points.

Ukraine sets up military office in Kursk occupied area, Russian military strengthens offensive in eastern Ukraine

Ukrainian Supreme Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi announced on Thursday that Kiev has established a military commander's office in the occupied area of the Kursk region in Russia; He said that the Ukrainian army is still advancing, even though the Russian army has intensified its offensive in eastern Ukraine.

Sersky's words are a strong signal that the Ukrainian military plans to hold their ground after launching a lightning cross-border attack on Russia last week. This has opened up a new front for the ongoing Russia Ukraine war that has lasted for two and a half years.

We are advancing in the Kursk region. A military commander's office has been established, which must ensure order and meet all the needs of local residents, "Sersky said in a written statement on his Telegram channel.

The Ukrainian army's intrusion into Russian territory caught Moscow off guard and took the lead from the Russian army. The Russian military has been slowly and steadily advancing in eastern Ukraine throughout the year. Currently, about 18% of Ukraine's territory is occupied by Russia.

In a video released by Ukrainian President Zelensky, Sersky told him that the Ukrainian army has advanced 35 kilometers (22 miles) in the Kursk region, occupying 82 villages and 1150 square kilometers (444 square miles) of land.

This number is much higher than the estimated 480 square kilometers by the acting governor of Kursk Oblast in Russia on Monday, but it is the largest attack on Russia since World War II and overturns people's view that Ukraine is retreating step by step.

Zelensky hinted in his public speech on Wednesday that he needed to move on to the "next step" and once again hinted at the possibility of launching other attacks on Russian territory.

We must make it clear at the legislative level that our soldiers, such as those who participated in the Kursk operation and will participate in all other operations on the territory of our aggressor countries in the future, will definitely receive all the rewards and benefits provided to frontline officers and soldiers, "he said in a speech on Telegram.

Russia has stated that the Ukrainian military is still attacking and will strengthen border defense, improve command and control, and deploy additional troops.

Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov said that the General Staff has prepared a series of measures to defend Russia's border areas of Kursk, Bryansk, and Belgorod, which are equivalent in size to Portugal.

Russian officials have warned that if Western weapons are used on Russian territory, Moscow will consider the situation to have escalated significantly. Russian President Putin has vowed to provide a response that matches the invasion.

Ukraine has stated that there is no indication that Russia's military pressure in eastern Ukraine is weakening, and has reported the most intense fighting in weeks near the logistics hub of Pokrovsk.

Gaza death toll exceeds 40000, Qatar leads new round of ceasefire negotiations

Officials stated that a new round of Gaza ceasefire negotiations is taking place in the Qatari capital Doha on Thursday, with Israeli, American, Egyptian intelligence chiefs and the Qatari Prime Minister attending the closed door meeting.

In addition, Gaza health officials reported that after more than 10 months of fighting, the death toll in Gaza has exceeded 40000.

An official familiar with the talks stated that negotiations in Doha continued until evening, and it is expected that all participants will continue their meetings on Friday.

The purpose of the negotiations is to end the bloody conflict in Gaza and allow 115 Israelis and foreigners to return home. After Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran on July 31, Iran seems to be preparing to retaliate against Israel.

Due to the deployment of warships, submarines, and fighter jets by the United States to defend Israel and deter potential attackers, Washington hopes that the Gaza ceasefire agreement can mitigate the risk of a wider regional war.

Hamas officials did not attend Thursday's talks, accusing Israel of delaying time. The official told Reuters that the mediator plans to consult with Hamas' negotiating team in Doha after the meeting.

Defense officials stated that the Israeli delegation includes intelligence chief David Barnea, head of domestic security Ronen Bar, and military hostage affairs chief Nitzan Alon.

CIA Director Bill Burns and US Middle East envoy Brett McGurk represented Washington at the meeting convened by Qatar Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, with Egyptian Intelligence Director Abbas Kamel also participating.

Israel and Hamas accuse each other of failing to reach an agreement, but neither side has ruled out the possibility of reaching an agreement.

A source from the Israeli negotiation team stated on Wednesday that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has allowed for some substantial disputes to have greater room for discussion.

The points of disagreement between the two sides include the presence of the Israeli military in Gaza, the sequence of hostage releases, and restrictions on the free movement of civilians from southern to northern Gaza.

White House National Security spokesman John Kirby told reporters that the negotiators' focus is on narrowing the gap and implementing the framework agreement, and he said that both sides have "generally accepted" the framework agreement.

He said, "The remaining obstacles can be overcome, and we must end this process. Today is a hopeful beginning

In the preparation phase of Thursday's talks, Hamas told the mediator that if Israel presents a "serious" proposal that is consistent with Hamas' previous proposal, Hamas will continue to participate in the negotiations.

Hamas senior official Sami Abu Zuhri stated on Thursday that the organization is committed to the negotiation process and urged mediators to ensure Israel's commitment to the proposal agreed upon by Hamas in early July.