On Friday morning (August 16th) in the Asian market, international oil prices fluctuated narrowly, with the October US crude oil contract currently trading around $76.81 per barrel. Oil prices rose more than $1 on Thursday as US economic data eased concerns about the world's largest economy falling into recession, but concerns about slowing global demand limited the gains.

Brent crude oil futures closed up $1.28, or 1.6%, on Thursday at $81.04 per barrel. US crude oil futures for September rose $1.18, or 1.53%, to close at $78.16 per barrel on Thursday; The more active US crude oil October futures contract rose 1.25% on Thursday, closing at $76.92 per barrel.

Data shows that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States decreased by 7000 last week to 227000, hitting a new low in over a month. In addition, retail sales in July saw the largest increase in a year and a half, further demonstrating the resilience of the economy.

Bob Yawger, the head of energy futures at Mizuho in New York, said, "Optimistic economic data indicates that we are heading towards a soft landing

Adam Button, an analyst at Forexlive, a financial website, said that both the US retail sales report on Thursday and the comments of Wal Mart executives emphasized that US consumption was strong, and Wal Mart executives said that global consumer conditions were also good. If that's the case, gas station consumption may remain stable, thereby supporting gasoline demand. Technically speaking, oil prices are consolidating after testing $72 for the second time in the past three months. This test looks successful, but it needs to rebound above $84 to generate some real upward momentum. The most bullish indicator is position, with net long positions at or near record lows. Positive signs in inventory, demand, and even the Middle East conflict may lead to supply shortages.

The data released by the US Department of Labor on Wednesday showed that consumer prices in the United States only rose moderately in July. This has increased people's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next month. Cutting interest rates may promote economic activity and oil consumption.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is scheduled to deliver a speech on the economic outlook next Friday (August 23), the first full day of the Kansas City Fed's annual economic seminar held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This annual meeting of global central bank governors provides Powell with an opportunity to make the latest assessment of the US economic trajectory and monetary policy outlook between the Federal Reserve's July and September decision-making meetings.

Oil prices are also benefiting from concerns about how Iran will react to the killing of Hamas leaders last month.

On Thursday afternoon, a new round of Gaza ceasefire negotiations took place in the Qatari capital Doha. An official briefed on the meeting stated that the Israeli intelligence chief, along with his counterparts from the United States and Egypt, as well as the Qatari Prime Minister, attended the closed door meeting. The purpose of this meeting is to end the 10 month long fighting in the Palestinian enclave and bring home 115 Israeli and foreign hostages.

After Hamas leader Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran on July 31st, Iran seems to be retaliating against Israel. As US warships, submarines, and fighter jets are dispatched to the region to defend Israel and deter potential attackers, Washington hopes that the Gaza ceasefire agreement can mitigate the risk of a full-scale regional conflict. Hamas officials who accused Israel of delaying did not attend Thursday's talks. However, officials familiar with the talks stated that the mediator plans to hold consultations with the Hamas negotiating team based in Doha after the meeting.

On the 15th local time, Osama Hamdan, a senior official of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), stated that Hamas will not negotiate any new conditions for the Gaza ceasefire agreement. Hamdan said that Hamas believes there is no need for further negotiations or a new agreement, but rather to force Israel to accept a ceasefire plan previously proposed by the United States and agreed upon by Hamas. Hamdan accused the United States of not putting pressure on Israel to agree to a ceasefire agreement. He also accused Israel of obstructing the negotiation process.

The Israel Defense Forces stated on Thursday that they are highly prepared for both offense and defense, and "we will act according to political instructions. The Air Force, Northern Command, Intelligence, Operations, and Rear Command are all working day and night to defend and attack. At this stage, the defense policy of the Rear Command has not changed. If there are any changes, we will update immediately and we have been monitoring the latest developments

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has also worsened recently. General Sersky, the highest commander of Ukraine, stated on Thursday that Kiev has established a military commander's office in the occupied area of the Kursk region in Russia; He said that the Ukrainian army is still advancing, even though the Russian army has intensified its offensive in eastern Ukraine.

Sersky's words are a strong signal that the Ukrainian military plans to hold their ground after launching a lightning cross-border attack on Russia last week. Ukrainian President Zelensky previously hinted in a public speech that he needed to move on to the "next step" and once again hinted at the possibility of launching other attacks on Russian territory.

On Wednesday, both major indicators of crude oil fell more than 1%, after the United States announced an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories last week.

As of the week ending August 9th, US crude oil inventories increased by 1.4 million barrels, with an expected decrease of 2.2 million barrels, marking the first increase since the end of June.

The slowdown in factory output growth in Asia in July and the fourth consecutive month of decline in refinery output highlight the weak economic recovery of major Asian countries, limiting the upward potential of the crude oil market on Thursday.

Nomura Securities economist Yuki Takashima said that as the oil market oversold on Wednesday, we saw a rebound in trading on Thursday.

Analysts from Dutch International Group stated that "geopolitical risks continue to envelop the oil market. It is currently unclear how and if Iran will retaliate against Israel. This uncertainty has led to an increase in option trading activity, and market participants hope to protect themselves from the impact of a significant increase in oil prices.

However, ANZ analysts believe that the increase in oil inventories has raised concerns about weak demand.

From a technical perspective, US crude oil October futures are still being suppressed by the 55 day moving average, which is currently around 77.53. Before breaking through this resistance, it is still necessary to guard against further downward risks in oil prices. Please pay attention to the support around the 200 day moving average of 75.95 and the 10 day moving average of 75.51 below. If it falls below the 10 day moving average, it will increase the bearish signal for the future market. If the oil price breaks through the 55 day moving average strongly, it will increase the bullish signal for the future.

Daily chart of US crude oil futures for October