At the beginning of the Asian market on Monday (August 21), international oil prices were hovering at low levels, and the October US crude oil futures contract is currently trading around $73.10 per barrel. Oil prices fell about 1% on Tuesday, hitting a new two-week low as Israel accepted a proposal to resolve disagreements that hindered the Gaza ceasefire agreement, easing concerns about Middle Eastern supply, while the economic weakness of Asian powers also dragged down fuel demand.

Brent futures for October delivery fell 46 cents, or 0.6%, on Tuesday to close at $77.20 per barrel. US crude oil for delivery in September fell 33 cents, or 0.4%, to close at $74.04. The more active October delivery of US crude oil futures will soon become a near month contract, falling about 49 cents to $73.17 per barrel.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Egypt to push forward the Gaza ceasefire and hostage release agreement. This week's talks still need to resolve significant differences.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made good offices in the Middle East on Tuesday, trying to work for the Gaza ceasefire and hostage release agreement while there are still major differences between Israel and Hamas in many aspects. This is part of Washington's latest diplomatic action.

Antony Blinken first met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi in the coastal town of Alamein. For several months, Egypt has been working with the United States and Qatar to help mediate the intermittent Gaza negotiations.

After the meeting, Sisi stated that it is time to end the 10 month long Gaza war and warned that the conflict will escalate in the region.

This is Antony Blinken's ninth visit to the region since the outbreak of the Israel Kazakhstan war last October. He then went to Doha and is expected to meet with Qatar's State Minister Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Al Khulaifi.

A senior US official said that Antony Blinken's plan to meet with the Emir (Head of State) of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad al Thani, had been cancelled because he was unwell.

Antony Blinken confirmed on Monday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has accepted the "bridging proposal" of the United States, which aims to narrow the differences between the two sides. Antony Blinken also called on Hamas to accept the proposal. The ceasefire talks were suspended last week without any breakthrough.

A senior official of the Biden administration told reporters accompanying Antony Blinken that the United States expected the ceasefire negotiations to continue this week.

Hamas did not explicitly reject the proposal, but stated that it overturned the previously reached agreement. However, Hamas did not elaborate and accused Israel and its US allies of maliciously sabotaging the negotiations.

Officials from the United States, Hamas, Israel, Egypt, or Qatar have not provided detailed information on the content of the proposal or how it differs from previous versions.

Bob Yawger, head of energy futures at Mizuho Bank, said in a report, "There may already be a geopolitical premium of about $4 to $8 in crude oil prices before the negotiations begin on Thursday

Data from Asia, the world's second-largest economy, shows that new house prices fell at the fastest pace in nine years in July, industrial output slowed, export and investment growth declined, and unemployment rates rose.

Concerns about fuel demand in the world's largest economy, the United States, have weighed on heating oil futures prices, causing them to fall to their lowest point since May 2023 for the second consecutive day. The heating oil cracking price difference, which measures refining profit margins, is approaching its lowest point since November 2021.

US gasoline futures prices have fallen to their lowest level since February 2024.

Goldman Sachs: Brent crude oil prices are expected to fall to $68 by the end of 2025 due to sluggish demand from major Asian countries

Goldman Sachs stated on Tuesday that if oil demand in major Asian countries remains stable by the end of next year, it is expected that Brent crude oil prices will fall to $68 per barrel by the end of 2025.

Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report, "The weak oil demand in major Asian countries and the downward risk to their gross domestic product (GDP) growth have strengthened our view that the risk to our current target range of $75-90 for Brent crude oil in 2025 is biased towards the downward trend

Last Thursday's data showed that the economies of major Asian countries lost growth momentum in July, with new house prices falling at the fastest pace in nine years, industrial output slowing down, and unemployment rising.

Last month, the crude oil processing volume of refineries in major Asian countries significantly decreased due to weak fuel demand.

Goldman Sachs said, 'Our conclusion is that the shift of road transportation fuel from oil to electricity (through electric vehicles) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) is the main reason for the slowdown in demand growth in major Asian countries.'.

Goldman Sachs predicts that the year-on-year growth of oil demand in major Asian countries will significantly slow down to 200000 barrels per day in the first half of 2024, and there will be a year-on-year decline this summer.

Last week, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its expectations for oil demand growth for this year and 2025, citing economic weakness in major Asian countries.

Survey: US crude oil and oil product inventories both decreased last week

Investors need to pay attention to the EIA crude oil inventory series data released at 22:30.

A Reuters survey released on Tuesday showed that US crude oil and oil inventories may have both decreased last week.

Ten interviewed analysts estimated that crude oil inventories decreased by an average of 2.7 million barrels in the week ending August 16th.

Analysts estimate that gasoline inventories decreased by about 900000 barrels last week, and distillate inventories including diesel and heating oil may decrease by 200000 barrels.

The survey shows that the utilization rate of refinery capacity is estimated to have increased by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous week's 91.5%.

Market sources cited API data on Tuesday, stating that crude oil inventories increased by 347000 barrels in the week ending August 16th. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.043 million barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 2.477 million barrels.

According to EIA data last Wednesday, crude oil inventories increased by 1.36 million barrels to 430.7 million barrels for the week ending August 9th, while analysts expected a decrease of 2.2 million barrels.

In addition, investors need to continue to pay attention to relevant news on the geopolitical situation.

According to Politico, two US officials and two Israeli officials said on Tuesday that the agreement to end the fighting in Gaza is on the brink of collapse, and there is currently no clear alternative agreement that can be proposed immediately.

Officials say this has raised concerns among US officials that the proposal will fail like previous ones, as Hamas and Israel have differences and no clear path to end the fighting or release hostages. Many people in the White House are now frustrated with the organization's public statements, unsure whether Hamas' rhetoric is just a bluff negotiation strategy or if they truly oppose the agreement.

Daily chart of major US crude oil contracts