On Wednesday (August 28th) morning trading in the Asian market, international oil prices were narrow, with US crude oil currently trading around $75.90 per barrel. Oil prices fell about 2% on Tuesday due to market concerns that slowing economic growth in the United States and major Asian countries may reduce demand for energy. In addition, some bulls took profits near the 200 day moving average, especially after oil prices surged more than 7% in the first three days.

Brent crude oil October futures fell $1.88, or 2.3%, on Tuesday, closing at $79.55 per barrel; The main futures contract for US crude oil fell $1.89, or 2.4%, on Tuesday, closing at $75.53.

Analysts from energy consulting firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a statement, "Although the price correction on Tuesday was significant, it was still within the normal and expected range of correction. After three consecutive days of significant increases in oil prices, a barrel rose by $6

Technical traders pointed out that these two contracts experienced a pullback after failing to break through resistance levels near their 200 day moving averages on Monday.

Due to US gasoline futures still trading near a six-month low, the 321 split spread, which measures refining profit margins, remained near its lowest level since February 2021 for the second consecutive day.

Bob Yawger, head of energy futures at Mizuho Bank, said in a statement, "If refineries cannot make money on gasoline and distillate, they will reduce their purchases of crude oil to produce gasoline and distillate. The crude oil they do not purchase will be sent to warehouses.

In the United States, the consumer confidence index rose to a six-month high in August, but after the unemployment rate jumped to nearly a three-year high of 4.3% last month, Americans became more anxious about the labor market.

The rise in unemployment rate has fueled expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next month. Lowering interest rates can promote economic growth and oil demand.

Goldman Sachs has lowered its 2025 Brent oil price range and average expectation by $5 per barrel, citing slowing demand from major Asian countries. The bank lowered the Brent oil price range to $70-85 per barrel and lowered the average expectation for Brent oil prices in 2025 from $82 per barrel to $77 per barrel.

Investors need to pay close attention to the US EIA crude oil inventory series data and geopolitical news on this trading day.

US National Security Council spokesperson Kirby said on Monday that Iran is "prepared and may launch an attack on Israel at any time". If Iran launches an attack, the United States will defend Israel.

Survey: US crude oil and oil product inventories both decreased last week

A Reuters survey released on Tuesday showed that US crude oil and oil inventories may have both decreased last week.

Eight analysts surveyed by Reuters estimated on average that US crude oil inventories fell by about 2.3 million barrels in the week ending August 23.

According to analysts' estimates, gasoline inventories decreased by about 1.6 million barrels last week, while distillate inventories including diesel and heating oil are expected to decrease by about 1.1 million barrels.

The survey shows that the utilization rate of refinery capacity is estimated to have increased by 0.2 percentage points from 92.3% the previous week.

This survey was conducted before the release of inventory reports by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday.

The latest data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) shows that as of the week ending August 23, US crude oil inventories decreased by 3.407 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.863 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.405 million barrels.

According to EIA data, as of the week ending August 16th, US crude oil inventories decreased by 4.6 million barrels to 426 million barrels, with analysts expecting a decrease of 2.7 million barrels.

Russia warns the United States not to play with fire, World War III will not be limited to Europe only

Russia stated on Tuesday that the West's consideration of allowing Ukraine to use Western missiles to strike deep into Russia's territory is playing with fire, and warned the United States that World War III will not be limited to Europe.

On August 6th, Ukraine launched an attack on the Kursk region in western Russia and seized a small piece of territory, marking the largest foreign attack on Russia since World War II. Russian President Putin has stated that he will provide a reciprocal response to this attack.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that the West is trying to escalate the war in Ukraine and considering Ukraine's demands to relax restrictions on the use of foreign weapons is "asking for trouble". Lavrov has been serving as the Russian Foreign Minister for over 20 years.

Since invading Ukraine in 2022, Putin has repeatedly warned of the possibility of a broader war involving the world's nuclear powers, although he has stated that Russia does not want conflict with NATO led by the United States.

Lavrov told reporters in Moscow, "We now confirm once again that it is very dangerous for adult uncles and aunts responsible for managing nuclear weapons in Western countries to play with fire, just like children playing with matches

Lavrov said: "The Americans made it clear in their talks that the Third World War (God forbid) would only affect Europe." Lavrov added that Russia was "clarifying" its nuclear strategy.

Russia's 2020 nuclear strategy sets out when the president will consider using nuclear weapons: generally, as a response to attacks using nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction or conventional weapons when the survival of the country is threatened.

Washington stated that there is no understanding of Ukraine's plans until Ukraine suddenly invades Kursk. The United States also stated that it has nothing to do with this operation.

Russian Foreign Intelligence Chief Sergei Naryshkin said on Tuesday that Moscow does not believe Western claims that it has nothing to do with the Kursk attack. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov stated that the involvement of the United States is an "obvious fact".

Ukrainian President Zelensky will propose a plan to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict to Biden and the presidential candidates of both parties

Ukrainian President Zelensky stated on Tuesday that the war with Russia will ultimately end through dialogue, but Kiev must take the initiative and present a plan to US President Biden and his two potential successors.

Zelensky stated at a press conference that Kiev's three week invasion of Russia's Kursk region is part of the plan, but the plan also includes other measures in terms of economy and diplomacy.

The key point of this plan is to force Russia to end the war. I really hope this will be fair to Ukraine, "he told reporters in Kiev about the war.

He did not further elaborate on the next steps, but stated that he will also discuss this plan with the two nominees for the US presidential election - Democratic Vice President Harris and Republican Trump.

Zelensky said he hopes to attend the United Nations General Assembly in New York in September and is preparing to meet with Biden.

His speech indicated that he believes the main potential venue for the talks is the subsequent international peace summit, and Ukraine has expressed the hope that Russia will send representatives to attend the summit.

Zelensky insists that Russia wants to impose conditions on Ukraine in any war resolution, which Kiev considers unacceptable.

Zelensky said at a press conference, "There can be no compromise with Putin. Today's dialogue is hollow and meaningless in principle because he doesn't want to end the war through diplomatic means

He said that after launching an attack on the Kursk region, the number of governments in the world calling on Ukraine to compromise with Russia to end the war and give up large territories has decreased.

On the battlefield, Zelensky mocked Putin, stating that Putin prioritized the seizure of Ukrainian territory over defending Russian territory.

He refers to the Kursk region, where Ukraine claims to have occupied 100 settlements, while the Russian military continues to advance in the eastern part of Donetsk.

Zelensky also stated that Kiev continues to make progress in domestic weapons production and test fired the first domestically produced ballistic missile. (End)

Carlyle: Interest rate cuts are expected to drive arbitrage trading in the crude oil market, putting oil prices at risk of skyrocketing

Jeff Currie, Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle Group and Senior Commodity Analyst, stated that oil prices will face greater opportunities for a surge after the "arbitrage trade" transfers much-needed funds in the market.

Currie stated that high interest rates will stimulate hedge funds and physical crude oil companies to reduce futures positions and crude oil inventories by up to $100 billion and switch to the embrace of the US money market. But he said that as the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, crude oil becomes more attractive and attracts capital inflows. This reversal is like the yen "arbitrage trade" that disrupted the stock market this month closing out, and severe disruptions in crude oil supply may greatly amplify this trend.

Currie said in an interview, "As interest rates fall and the cost of holding these inventories decreases, we will see more inventories reinvested into the crude oil market, both physically and financially. We should see that the dynamics that put downward pressure on prices are reversing. All else being equal, oil prices should rise