英国央行可能接近2020年以来的首次降息fxcue.com

【fxcue】-随着通胀下降，英国央行可能会在周四朝着四年来的首次降息迈进一步，但可能会谨慎表态，不会马上采取行动。外界普遍预计，在5月份的货币政策讨论之后，英国央行将连续第六次将基准银行利率维持在5.25%不变，这是2008年以来的最高水平。对投资者来说，最大的问题是，英国央行是否暗示可能在6月份降息——届时欧洲央行已经表示将降低借贷成本——或者像美联储那样，坚持更长时间。“我们认为进一步的谨慎是合理的。”英国国家经济与社会研究所(National Institute of Economic and Social Research)的经济学家保拉·贝贾拉诺·卡波(Paula Bejarano Carbo)说。她指出，英国就业市场吃紧，工资增长依然强劲，中东冲突带来的不确定性也是原因之一。金融市场完全消化了英国央行8月才会首次降息25个基点，11月或12月再降息一次，届时英国央行利率将降至4.75%，2025年还会有更多降息。但最近几天，投资者越来越多地押注英国可能更早采取行动。利率期货市场周三显示，6月降息的可能性接近50%。法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)的英国经济学家马修·斯旺内尔(Matthew Swannell)表示，英国央行在过去几年中发现，利率变化对通胀的影响比过去要慢，现在它可能希望相对迅速地降息，因为整体通胀可能很快就会跌破2%的目标。但他表示，英国央行周四可能不愿就首次降息的时间发出明确信号。"我们预计会议纪要公布后，他们不会给出欧洲央行式的指引。" 斯旺内尔称。他预计，从今年6月开始，到2024年底，英国利率将下调三次，降至4.5%。英国首相里希·苏纳克(Rishi Sunak)若能及早采取行动，将受到欢迎。苏纳克曾对选民表示，英国经济正在好转，但由于反对党工党(Labour Party)预计将在今年举行大选，他在民意调查中仍难以控制领先优势。*给市场的信息*如果英国央行确实发出加速降息的信号，这可能会出现在周四的计票中。路透调查的多数分析师认为，英国央行货币政策委员会可能连续第二次以8票赞成、1票反对的投票结果决定维持利率不变。但一些人说，副行长戴夫·拉姆斯登(Dave Ramsden)可能会加入到斯瓦蒂·丁格拉(Swati Dingra)的行列。丁格拉迄今为止唯一投下了支持降息的一票。拉姆斯登表示，上月通胀可能弱于英国央行的预估，但央行首席经济学家休·皮尔（Huw Pill）警告称，降息仍有一段时间。尽管英国的经济增长更为缓慢，但工资增长和服务价格通胀仍保持在6%左右，高于美国和欧元区。英国央行的新通胀预测可能也传递了一个信息：如果它大幅下调2年和3年的通胀预测，投资者就会将其解读为一个信号，即他们对降息的预期过低。英国央行的通胀预测是基于货币政策委员会会议前的市场定价。

英国央行可能接近2020年以来的首次降息

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埃隆·马斯克希望伯克希尔哈撒韦公司认可特斯拉并购买其股票的梦想可能永远不会实现

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英国央行可能接近2020年以来的首次降息

前美国财长萨默斯表示：即使以日本的规模货币干预也会失败

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Trader

This week, there was a slight loss in gold trading. When it comes to stop loss, my mentality is very stable. No one is perfect, there will always be a pullback. Have a nice weekend, we'll trade next week.

The trading of EURUSD, GBPUSD, XAUUSD, and USDJPY ended in one week, resulting in a loss of over 7000 US dollars. When you engage in forex gold trading, whether it's profit or loss, don't lose your mind. Timely stop loss and take profit is the correct trading method.

This week's gold trading has an 80% win rate, with no rush or impatience, and stable profits.

To summarize, the gold market has been volatile and has been a bit tiring. Overall, there has been a slight loss this week. Even if the market situation is not as good as I wish, I will stick to my trading strategy and maintain my true goal of making money and profits.

Strictly control the frequency of gold trading this week, with 1 to 2 trades per day, and seize opportunities for trading. This week, I traded gold 7 times and made a profit of over $500. I only took one stop loss order, which was a perfect week.

This week's gold trading has suffered a slight loss, and I have caught a cold these past few days. My condition is not good, and I will trade at full capacity next week.

This week's gold trading sales made a profit of over $2000, and next week's gold sales will continue.

This week, trading US100, XAUSD, XTIUSD, GBPJPY, and USDJPY resulted in a total loss of $29259. A controllable trading drawdown is an important guarantee for profitability, and we will optimize our trading strategy next week.

One week (0902-0906) trading summary shows that USDJPY, XAUUSD, GBPCHF, and USOIL made a total profit of $22228 this week, mainly due to non farm data gains. Foreign exchange, gold, and crude oil trading will end this week and continue next week.

The non farm day ended perfectly with a profit of $13238 and a pleasant weekend.

Tags

英国央行可能接近2020年以来的首次降息

道琼斯指数上涨170多点 创下2024年第六个上涨日和最长连胜纪录

日元干预给了散户投资者买入美元的机会

﻿埃隆·马斯克希望伯克希尔哈撒韦公司认可特斯拉并购买其股票的梦想可能永远不会实现

由于中国、美国和欧洲电动汽车的增长 今年汽油需求增长将放缓

﻿随着油价下跌 拜登重启补充美国战略石油储备的计划

植田和男与岸田文雄的谈话促使投资者押注日本央行将迅速采取行动 推高收益率

英国央行可能接近2020年以来的首次降息

前美国财长萨默斯表示：即使以日本的规模 货币干预也会失败

Please sign in

Trader

This week, there was a slight loss in gold trading. When it comes to stop loss, my mentality is very stable. No one is perfect, there will always be a pullback. Have a nice weekend, we'll trade next week.

The trading of EURUSD, GBPUSD, XAUUSD, and USDJPY ended in one week, resulting in a loss of over 7000 US dollars. When you engage in forex gold trading, whether it's profit or loss, don't lose your mind. Timely stop loss and take profit is the correct trading method.

This week's gold trading has an 80% win rate, with no rush or impatience, and stable profits.

To summarize, the gold market has been volatile and has been a bit tiring. Overall, there has been a slight loss this week. Even if the market situation is not as good as I wish, I will stick to my trading strategy and maintain my true goal of making money and profits.

Strictly control the frequency of gold trading this week, with 1 to 2 trades per day, and seize opportunities for trading. This week, I traded gold 7 times and made a profit of over $500. I only took one stop loss order, which was a perfect week.

This week's gold trading has suffered a slight loss, and I have caught a cold these past few days. My condition is not good, and I will trade at full capacity next week.

This week's gold trading sales made a profit of over $2000, and next week's gold sales will continue.

This week, trading US100, XAUSD, XTIUSD, GBPJPY, and USDJPY resulted in a total loss of $29259. A controllable trading drawdown is an important guarantee for profitability, and we will optimize our trading strategy next week.

One week (0902-0906) trading summary shows that USDJPY, XAUUSD, GBPCHF, and USOIL made a total profit of $22228 this week, mainly due to non farm data gains. Foreign exchange, gold, and crude oil trading will end this week and continue next week.

The non farm day ended perfectly with a profit of $13238 and a pleasant weekend.

Tags

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道琼斯指数上涨170多点创下2024年第六个上涨日和最长连胜纪录

埃隆·马斯克希望伯克希尔哈撒韦公司认可特斯拉并购买其股票的梦想可能永远不会实现

由于中国、美国和欧洲电动汽车的增长今年汽油需求增长将放缓

随着油价下跌拜登重启补充美国战略石油储备的计划

植田和男与岸田文雄的谈话促使投资者押注日本央行将迅速采取行动推高收益率

前美国财长萨默斯表示：即使以日本的规模货币干预也会失败