On Tuesday (November 26th Beijing time), spot gold traded around $2627.48 per ounce. Gold prices broke five consecutive trading days of gains on Monday, as Israel approached a ceasefire with Hezbollah and Trump nominated Besant as US Treasury Secretary, weakening the safe haven appeal of gold; US crude oil traded around $68.90 per barrel, and although there are still some issues, Israel is moving towards a ceasefire in its war with Hezbollah, significantly reducing geopolitical tensions and suppressing the rise in oil prices.

The S&P 500 index closed up 0.30% on Monday, closing at 5987.15 points; The Nasdaq index rose 0.27% to close at 19055.15 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.99% to 44735.53 points.

Key Focus for the Day: Speeches by European Central Bank Officials, Consumer Confidence Index from the US Conference Board in November, Annual Total Sales of New Houses after Quarterly Adjustment in October, and Revised Monthly Rate of Building Permits in October.

equity market

Major US stock indices closed higher on Monday, with the small cap Russell 2000 index hitting a record high. Prior to this, Besson was nominated to serve as the US Treasury Secretary, driving down bond yields. The market focus has also shifted towards the ceasefire agreement negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, which has driven down oil prices and dragged down the energy sector.

President elect Trump nominated his candidate late last Friday, putting an end to weeks of speculation. Some investment strategists say that even if he fulfills his campaign promises on finance and trade, Benson may take measures to limit further government borrowing. Bessent's nomination has eased some fiscal concerns about the possibility of new tariffs, which had previously driven up bond yields before the election. James Reilly, Senior Market Economist at Capital Economics, said, "This time, the focus is on tariff policies, especially now that choosing Besant as Treasury Secretary seems to alleviate major fiscal concerns

The yield on US Treasury bonds plummeted, led by the 30-year bond yield, and the small cap index hit a record high of 2466.49 points, breaking the previous record set three years ago.

Adam Sarhan, CEO of 50 Park Investments, said, "Areas that have lagged behind for most of this year are starting to outperform the market, such as small cap and mid cap stocks, not only because of Trump, but also because of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts

People expect Trump and the Republican Congress to fulfill their promises of business friendly policies, which is the latest positive factor for small cap stocks. Since the Federal Reserve began its monetary policy easing cycle in September, small cap stocks have been the focus of market attention.

The decline in yields has driven up the interest rate sensitive real estate sector, and the housing stock index has also surged by 4.5%. Barclays has raised its forecast for the S&P 500 index for the full year of 2025, while Deutsche Bank has set its target level for the end of 2025 at 7000 points.

However, concerns persist that inflationary pressures may surge and slow down the pace of the Federal Reserve's policy easing. Recently, investors have been wavering between the expectation of the Federal Reserve suspending action or further interest rate cuts at its December meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by another 25 basis points is 56.2%.

gold market

Gold prices plummeted by over 3% on Monday, breaking a five-day streak of gains that had previously reached a nearly three week high. According to reports, Israel is approaching a ceasefire with Hezbollah, and Trump's nomination of Besson as US Treasury Secretary has weakened the safe haven appeal of gold. Spot gold fell 3.4% to $2619.66 per ounce, marking the largest daily percentage decline since June 7th. US futures closed 3.5% lower, with a settlement price of $2618.50.

The gold price experienced a sell-off after a sharp rise last week due to a drying up of buying activity. Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities, stated that the appointment of Treasury Secretary at Besant has further weakened some of the risk premiums associated with the United States. Moreover, it has been reported that Israel and Lebanon have reached an agreement on the terms of an agreement to end the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, further driving down gold prices. "

UBS Group analyst Giovanni Staunovo said that some market participants believe that the negative impact of Besent is relatively small in terms of trade tensions. During the earlier Asian trading session, gold prices hit their highest level since November 6th. The gold price surged nearly 6% last week, the best weekly performance since March 2023, stimulated by the escalation of tension in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Traders are also preparing for a crucial week, anticipating that the minutes of the Federal Reserve's November meeting, the revised US GDP, and the core personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) will provide clues to the Fed's policy outlook.

Spot silver fell 3.3% to $30.28 per ounce; Platinum fell 2.6% to $938.57; Palladium fell 3.1% to $977.94.

Oil market

Oil prices fell nearly 3% on Monday, after multiple reports citing unnamed senior US officials claimed that Israel and Lebanon had reached an agreement on the terms of an agreement to end the Israel Hezbollah conflict. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was $73.01 per barrel, down 2.87%. US crude oil futures closed at $68.94 per barrel, down 3.23%.

Israel stated on Monday that it is moving towards a ceasefire in its war with Hezbollah, but there are still some issues that need to be resolved. Lebanese officials expressed cautious optimism, but called Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu untrustworthy. Giovanni Staunovo from UBS Group said, "The news of the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon seems to be the driving force behind the decline in oil prices, although the conflict between the two countries has not caused any disruption to supply, and the risk premium of oil was already very low before the recent drop in oil prices

Phil Flynn, Senior Analyst at Price Futures Group, stated in a report on Monday that rising or falling concerns about supply disruptions have driven the ups and downs of the oil market. "

Flynn wrote in his energy report: 'There are reports that Netanyahu approved the Lebanon ceasefire agreement in principle, which may be a bearish catalyst, but we must see more details. Last week, Russia launched supersonic missiles into Ukraine, shocking the whole world.'“

Azerbaijani Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov stated that OPEC+may consider maintaining the current oil production reduction policy from January 1st at its next meeting on Sunday.

Azerbaijan is a member of OPEC+. The alliance will hold a meeting on December 1st.

foreign exchange market

The US dollar fell from a two-year high on Monday, with the US dollar index dropping 0.61% to 106.83, 1% lower than the two-year high set last Friday. The US Treasury market, on the other hand, is excited about Trump's selection of hedge fund manager Bessent as the US Treasury Secretary, believing that he will have more fiscal discipline than investors have always feared.

US treasury bond bonds rebounded, reacting to the news that President elect Trump announced the nomination of Besant as Treasury Secretary late last Friday, pushing the yield of 10-year bonds down by about 14 basis points, the largest one-day decline since the beginning of August. The yield on two-year government bonds has also declined, weakening the interest rate advantage of the US dollar.

The EUR/USD rose 0.83% to 1.0503, rebounding from last Friday's lowest price since November 30, 2022. USD/JPY fell 0.37% to 154.16. Traders consider Besant to be an old hand on Wall Street and a fiscal conservative. However, he has also publicly supported a strong US dollar and tariffs, indicating that any drop in the exchange rate could be short-lived.

Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York, said, "I think this is an exaggerated reaction. We still don't know how much power the White House has, and how much power the Cabinet has. I don't think we really know a lot of things that we didn't know last Friday. I think this is more about market positioning than the policies of the new government

Thursday is the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, and many market professionals are also on vacation on Friday, so market trading is light. The only important data for this week are the second reading of the US third quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data released on Wednesday and the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index for October.

The US dollar has risen for eight consecutive weeks, with many technical indicators showing signs of overbought as the market bets that Trump's policies will stimulate inflation and further support the US dollar. BNY senior macro strategist Geoff Yu said, "The pricing of various US assets has been pushed quite aggressively in one direction within three weeks, and the market may need to take a breath in terms of US dollar positions

Due to widespread weakness in the European Manufacturing Index (PMI) and unexpectedly high results in the US survey, the euro was hit last Friday. In contrast, European bond yields have sharply declined, widening the gap with US Treasury yields and benefiting the US dollar. The market has also priced the European Central Bank's more aggressive easing policies, with the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in December rising to about 40%.

Meanwhile, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has decreased from 75% a month ago to 54%. At present, the market expects the European Central Bank to implement a loose policy of about 150 basis points by the end of next year, while the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by about 75 basis points.

The minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve will be released this week, providing more clues about the thinking behind the Fed's policy measures so far. This week, inflation data for the United States and the European Union will also be released, which will further improve the interest rate outlook.

The pound rose 0.33% to $1.2572. Last Friday, it hit a six week low of $1.2484. In terms of other North American currencies, the Mexican peso rose 0.87% against the US dollar; USD/CAD fell by 0.01%.

international news 

OPEC+delegates: OPEC+changes December 1st oil policy meeting to an online conference

This organization, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has changed the originally scheduled meeting at its Vienna headquarters to an online conference for the third consecutive time. The attending representatives who declined to be named did not disclose the reason for the adjustment of the format of the meeting on December 1st.

Azerbaijan says OPEC+may consider delaying production increase at December meeting

The Energy Minister of Azerbaijan stated that OPEC+may consider deciding at the next meeting to maintain the current oil production reduction policy starting from January 1st, as the organization has postponed its production recovery plan due to demand concerns. Due to the decline in oil prices, weak demand, and increased production outside of OPEC, the organization has postponed its plan to gradually increase production this year for several months. In addition, earlier this year, an advisor to the Azerbaijani President stated that the European Union and Ukraine had requested Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding natural gas transportation through Ukraine. The Azerbaijani Energy Minister refused to disclose details of the negotiations, but expressed doubts about the prospects of the talks. I really don't know what will happen

Iranian officials say OPEC+has little room to restore previous production cuts

The representative of Iran to OPEC+stated that the organization has almost no room to resume the previous production cuts. This strategy of supporting prices actually encourages countries outside the group to increase supply, especially the United States, "said Afshin Javan, Iran's OPEC director, in an article published on the official Shana news agency. This results in limited room for OPEC+to relax production restrictions. "This article is an unusual criticism of OPEC's production policy by Iran, a founding member of OPEC. In a few days, OPEC+will hold a meeting to discuss plans to resume production cuts. Javan also wrote that some smaller African member states, including Gabon and Congo, may withdraw from the organization because they are unable to pay their membership fees.

ECB Managing Director Mahlouf: The ECB will further cut interest rates, but the speed is not yet clear

ECB Managing Director Mahlouf stated that the ECB's key interest rate is in a downward trend, but the speed of the rate cut is still unclear due to the uncertain outlook for the eurozone economy and US policies. Due to the cooling of inflation, the European Central Bank has cut interest rates three times since June. It is expected that policymakers will further reduce borrowing costs at their next meeting in December, but investors are unsure of the magnitude of the rate cuts. During his speech in London on Monday, Mahruf expressed concerns about the "stickiness" of service price inflation, but there are signs that the job market is easing. Another uncertainty facing the eurozone economy is the timing and scale of the implementation of new tariffs advocated by President elect Trump during his campaign. Mahruf said, 'It is clear that policies are still restrictive, and aside from shocks, interest rates are in a downward trend.'. Given the volatility and enormous uncertainty of data, as well as the significant uncertainty of economic policies of trading partners, I am open to the speed of this downturn, "said Mahruf. Policy makers should pay more attention to the impact of key interest rate changes on innovation, as the eurozone has lagged behind the United States in innovation in recent decades. He cited a study stating that financing costs may affect the speed of development and promotion of new inventions.

US officials say Lebanon Israel ceasefire agreement is' close 'to being reached

On November 25th local time, it was learned that John Kirby, the Coordinator for Strategic Communications at the US National Security Council, stated that the US government's discussions on the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel were "constructive" and moving in the right direction towards reaching an agreement. Kirby stated that the development trajectory of the matter is "positive" and they are "close" to reaching an agreement. At present, Israel, Lebanon, and Hezbollah have not made any formal response to this.

Media reveals details of Lebanon ceasefire agreement: no buffer zone, US leadership monitoring team

Israel's Channel 12 reveals the core elements of the Israel Hezbollah ceasefire agreement mediated by the United States. The agreement stipulates a mutual ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah; The Israeli army can stay in Lebanon for up to 60 days and withdraw when the Lebanese army is deployed there; There is no border buffer zone in southern Lebanon, and residents of southern Lebanon can go home; The Lebanese government will supervise all weapons procurement and production in Lebanon; The United States will lead the international organization to monitor the implementation of the agreement, and France will also be a member of the group. The report added that a letter from the US side will clearly state that Israel has the right to take action when it sees a direct threat from Lebanon. In addition, the United States has stated in recent days that it would be advisable for Israel to take action on threats that can be resolved on Syrian territory (rather than Lebanese territory).

California plans to promote electric vehicle purchase subsidies, Tesla will be excluded

The governor of California plans to offer car purchase discounts to consumers, excluding Tesla's electric vehicles. The decision of the state legislators aims to promote competition, which may anger Elon Musk. California Governor Gavin Newson announced on Monday that if US President elect Donald Trump were to repeal a federal subsidy after taking office next year, California plans to provide incentives to electric vehicle buyers. Renowned Democrat Newson, who often criticizes Republican proposals, stated in a statement that a plan gradually phased out by California in 2023 may be restarted to ease the burden on car buyers and replace the $7500 tax credit policy that Trump intends to cancel. The governor's office stated that the current proposal covers market share restrictions that would exclude Tesla's best-selling electric vehicle models. The details will be discussed with the state legislature and there may be adjustments.

US media: The core agenda of US Treasury Secretary nominee Benson is "3/3/3"

AXIOS website analyzes the core economic agenda of US Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Besant's "3/3/3" policy direction, which aims to reduce the budget deficit to 3% of GDP, achieve an annual economic growth rate of 3%, and increase domestic oil production by 3 million barrels per day. At present, the deficit of the United States will remain between 6% and 7% of GDP in the coming years, forming a spiral upward trend, which may bring the risk of a significant increase in interest rates. Therefore, the first agenda will satisfy the "deficit hawks". In terms of the second agenda, the United States has achieved growth of around 3% for a long period of its history, but this goal may contradict Trump's policy of restricting immigration. In terms of the third agenda, the daily oil production in the United States is already around 13 million barrels, and the market is oversupplied. Energy executives have questioned the geological rationale for further significant increases in production.

Biden administration's surprise funding for Intel to receive $8 billion

As Trump's inauguration date approaches, the Biden administration is taking swift action to secure funding for many previously promised projects. In this context, according to an informed source, chip manufacturer Intel and the CHIPS Act Office (CPO) under the US Department of Commerce are about to finalize a deal that will grant Intel approximately $8 billion in funding. Intel has benefited from tax exemptions under the Chip and Science Act, but has not yet received cash grants. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger expressed dissatisfaction with this. Gelsinger told the media in October this year, "We are frustrated because the government has not acted faster" - referring to the delayed funding for the Chip and Science Act - "They have been too bureaucratic throughout the entire process. We are eager to see these funding projects completed

Domestic news in China

Golden Autumn October Good Scenery Futures Company's net profit increased by 227.5% year-on-year

In October, futures companies bid farewell to the 'good fortune'. Recently, the China Futures Industry Association released the overall operating situation of futures companies for October 2024. Overall, the trading volume and turnover of the futures market have increased significantly, and the operating income and net profit of futures companies for the month have also achieved significant growth, especially net profit, which increased by 227.5% year-on-year. Industry insiders have stated that the explosive performance of futures companies is mainly influenced by multiple factors such as the improvement of self operated investment returns, the inclusion of capital interest into the balance sheet, and active market trading. With the steady improvement of the scale and quality of the futures market, the participation of major asset management products in the futures market is also constantly increasing.

The data industry is expected to become a new growth point for China's economy

On November 25, 2021, the Shanghai Data Exchange was unveiled and established. In the past three years, Shanghai Stock Exchange has taken the lead in launching the data asset trading market nationwide, relying on the opportunity of national comprehensive reform pilot projects. It was learned from the 2024 Data Asset Management Summit held in Shanghai on the 25th that the Shanghai Stock Exchange expects the annual data transaction volume to exceed 4 billion yuan in 2024. By the end of 2024, the cumulative number of listed data products will exceed 4000, and the credit amount for enterprises to connect with financial services will exceed 500 million yuan. With the addition of 100 million yuan in 2022 and 1.1 billion yuan in 2023, the cumulative data transaction volume of the Shanghai Stock Exchange is expected to exceed 5 billion yuan in the three years since its establishment.

China will fully realize the large-scale application of 5G by the end of 2027

On November 25th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and twelve other departments issued the "5G Scale Application 'Sail' Action Upgrade Plan" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"). The Plan proposes to build a development pattern of "universal capability, universal application, and empowering universal" by the end of 2027, and fully realize the large-scale application of 5G.

The 'Grain Economy' has suddenly become popular! Securities firms are optimistic about the growth potential of the trillion yuan market size

The "millet economy" of Generation Z young people has recently become a new trend in the investment market. "Guzi" comes from the anime culture and refers to the products around IP, such as comics, animation, games, etc., such as badges, cards, pendants, etc. It is the transliteration of "Goods". Recently, the concept stocks of "guzi economy" have been hot in the market, and multiple individual stocks have experienced consecutive trading. Several securities firms have released research reports related to the "guzi economy", stating that the rise of the "guzi culture" has become an undeniable new consumer force that will support a market worth billions in the future. But investors also remind us to prevent the risk of short-term pullback of some individual stocks due to excessive gains. Recently, market hotspots have been rapidly rotating, and chasing high hotspots is easy to be trapped.