Last week (week 1125-1129), gold prices closed down 2.36% to $2650.26/ounce. Although they closed positive in four out of five days, the weak rebound still failed to offset their sharp drop on Monday. On November 25th, they plummeted nearly 4% and closed down 3.28%, marking the largest daily decline in nearly six months (since June 7th, when they closed down 3.48%). The direct triggering factor is Trump's nomination of renowned investor Scott Bessent as the US Treasury Secretary, who advocates for tax reform and deregulation, the possibility of severe tariffs may be reduced, and safe haven buying demand may decrease. A more perfect matching condition is that the rebound of gold prices from 2541 to 2723 has reached an important pressure level. The resonance between fundamentals and technology triggered a sharp decline.

Looking back, the gold price analysis chart before the opening of last Monday (1125) did not provide a predictive reminder for the sharp decline on November 25th. However, the article mentioned that if there is a head shape, it is necessary to be alert to the risk of a decline. The overseas media's survey of institutions and retail investors before the opening last week showed a unanimous bullish view, which seems ironic; And on Friday, November 22nd, it was almost bald and had a feeling of cheating. However, in large-scale volatile market conditions, such sudden and unexpected market trends are more likely to occur. As long as there is a resonance between the news and technical aspects (such as encountering negative news when the rebound is weak or positive news when the decline is not moving), panic and greed will repeatedly switch among short-term investors, while medium and long-term investors will establish positions based on the medium to long term perspective.

Looking at the daily chart, the bearish candlestick on November 25th saw one bearish candle swallowing the first three bullish candles, and the rebound of the last four bullish candles only reached half of the bearish candlestick, highlighting the weak rebound. Last Friday (November 29th), the highest point of gold prices clearly pierced the middle band of the daily chart's Bollinger Bands, but the closing price just closed slightly above the middle band's entry level. The main force of COMEX gold futures closed positive above the more obvious middle band of the daily chart's Bollinger Bands. Due to the fact that the main force of COMEX gold has switched to the February contract, and spot gold is more heavily bet on by the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates in December, the recent trend of spot gold prices may show some differentiation from the main force of COMEX futures in some details, but the overall trend should still be highly correlated.

From the perspective of price range and K-line pattern, the gold price is still in a volatile consolidation trend. The support resistance that I am focusing on is the triangular convergence pattern composed of two orange and bold lines in the following daily chart, paying attention to the direction of price breakthrough. Unless there is any major unexpected news, the gold price should not fall below the orange bold support line, at least the closing price should not fall below it. If there is a breakthrough above the orange bold resistance line, it is necessary to observe the effect after stepping back and see if it is a false breakthrough. If the price encounters resistance at the intersection of the red thin line and the orange thick line, then focus on the downside risk. Long and short positions may focus on the competition for the middle track of the daily Bollinger Bands. If they clearly stand on it and maintain stability, it is an important source of confidence for bulls. If the loss is confirmed, it may trigger another rapid sell-off.

Technical analysis of spot gold daily chart

Besides the two orange lines mentioned above, what are the supporting resistance prices based on the horizontal line? Pay attention to the resistance in the range of 2660-2666. 2684-2688, 2694, 2700, 2708. The area above 2721-2750 is expected to experience significant selling pressure. Pay attention to the support in the following order: 2644, 2637-2632 range, 2620, 2605-2600 range. If it falls below, pay attention to the support in the 2565-2560 range.

If there are obvious negative news of concern and gold does not fall, then focus on the possibility of a rebound risk. If there is good news that everyone is concerned about and gold does not rise, then pay attention to the risk of decline.

There will be a non farm payroll report released this Friday, and we will continue to pay attention to the impact of non farm and small non farm data on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, the geopolitical situation, Trump's cabinet personnel arrangements, and related remarks. In addition, starting from this week and entering December, based on the performance of gold in December over the past decade, the probability of an increase is 80%, and the average rise and fall over the past decade is about $40. Therefore, if there is a bullish trend or if there is a significant drop and stabilization, it is easy to trigger buying.

From a weekly perspective, since the historical high started a sharp decline, spot gold has tested the weekly chart's Bollinger Bands middle track twice in a row (21,2), while COMEX gold's main force has tested the middle track nearly three times (the third time was when the lowest spread last week touched the middle track), and has held steady each time. Moreover, last week's weekly chart was held above the waist of the previous bullish candlestick, which is a positive signal for the medium to long term.

Spot Gold Week Chart