On Tuesday (December 24th) morning trading in the Asian market, spot gold fluctuated narrowly and is currently trading around $2615.35 per ounce. The gold price fell in the depressed holiday season trading on Monday. The strong rebound of core durable goods orders in the United States helped the US dollar strengthen. The yield of the US 10-year treasury bond bond hit a new high for more than half a year, putting significant pressure on the gold price.

In November, there was a significant increase in new orders for key durable goods in the United States, with strong demand for machinery and a rebound in new home sales after being dragged down by hurricanes. These signs indicate that as this year comes to an end, the foundation of the US economy is solid.

However, people are concerned that President elect Trump's upcoming administration plans to impose tariffs on imported goods or significantly increase tariffs, which may slow down next year's economic growth momentum. Other data on Monday showed a decline in consumer confidence in December. However, consumers remain optimistic about the prospects of the labor market.

Last week, strong consumer spending data was released. These data highlight the resilience of the economy, prompting the Federal Reserve to anticipate reducing the number of interest rate cuts in 2025 last week.

This strong momentum is consistent with our view that the growth of enterprise equipment spending will moderately accelerate next year, "said Michael Pearce, Deputy Chief US Economist at Oxford Economics. The continuous development of artificial intelligence and the spillover effects of the new factory construction boom in the past few years will provide sustained impetus

The US Bureau of Statistics stated that non defense durable goods orders, excluding aircraft, rebounded 0.7% in November after a 0.1% decline in October. Economists previously predicted that the core durable goods order would increase by 0.1%. This is a closely monitored indicator for measuring a company's expenditure plan.

Other data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that new home sales increased by 5.9% in November, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664000 households. But mortgage interest rates, rising along with the yield of 10-year US treasury bond bonds, will pose a challenge next year.

The core durable goods orders in November increased by 0.4% year-on-year. After a 0.4% increase in October, the shipment volume of core durable goods increased by another 0.5% in November. Despite the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening of monetary policy in 2022 and 2023 to curb inflation, corporate investment has largely been maintained.

Consumers have begun to notice the potential negative impact of tariffs on the economy. A survey conducted by World Enterprise Research on Monday showed that 46% of surveyed consumers expect tariffs to increase their cost of living. This led to a sharp drop of 8.1 points in consumer confidence index to 104.7 in December, wiping out all the gains since Trump's election victory on November 5th.

Consumers remain optimistic about the labor market, which is the main driving force behind the economy through consumer spending.

The labor market gap in the survey rose from 18.4 in November to 22.2, reaching a seven month high. This indicator is based on respondents' views on whether job opportunities are abundant or difficult to find, and is related to the unemployment rate in the monthly employment report of the Ministry of Labor. The current unemployment rate in the United States is 4.2%.

After a 0.8% increase in October, orders for durable goods such as toasters and airplanes that can be used for three years or longer decreased by 1.1% in November. This decline mainly reflects the weakness of commercial aircraft orders.

The Atlanta Fed predicts that the US gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 3.1% in the fourth quarter. The economic growth rate in the third quarter was 3.1%.

The US dollar index rose 0.4% on Monday, hovering around a two-year high. The US dollar index rose for the fourth day in five trading days, and has accumulated a rise of 1.2% during this period, reducing the attractiveness of gold to holders of other currencies.

The market continues to digest the results of last week's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), "said Peter Grant, Vice President and Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals

Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, said, "The key to the US dollar currently lies in policy differences. (Federal Reserve Chairman) Powell went from being more concerned about unemployment rather than inflation, and then flipped back to the 'job market is fine, but we're more concerned about inflation,' which confused the market

Chandler predicts that the US dollar will not begin to weaken until the market becomes more dovish than the Federal Reserve again. He said that the release of a weak employment report in early January would be a start.

Traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 33 basis points next year, indicating that they believe the likelihood of a second 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed is less than 50%, lower than the two 25 basis point rate cuts predicted by the Fed last week. Federal Reserve policymakers last week lowered their expectations for a rate cut in 2025 from 100 basis points to 50 basis points and raised their inflation expectations.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected last week, but Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that further reduction in borrowing costs now depends on more progress in reducing price pressures.

The biggest surprise is the upward adjustment of next year's inflation forecast, "LPL Financial Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach and Chief Fixed Income Strategist Lawrence Gillum said in a report on Monday." Federal Reserve officials expect inflation to reach 2.5% by the end of 2025, higher than the September forecast of 2.1%, which is likely to reflect the uncertainty brought about by a potential trade war.

US President elect Trump has warned that he may impose more tariffs on trading partners, which analysts believe could lead to rising inflation.

The yield of 10-year treasury bond rose 7.3 basis points late Monday, hitting 4.599%, the highest since May 30, and closing at 4.597%.

It should be noted that the bond market, gold market, and most of the European and American markets will be closed early on Tuesday (Christmas Eve) and on Wednesday due to the Christmas holiday. This trading day also needs to pay attention to the news about the annual total number of new housing sales and geographical situation in the United States after the quarterly adjustment in November.

On the afternoon of the 23rd local time, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu revealed in a speech at the plenary session of the parliament that there has been "clear progress" in negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) regarding the release of detainees. Netanyahu emphasized that Israel will not turn a blind eye to Iran. He himself will also cooperate with the United States to continue promoting the formal establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and some Arab countries.

However, on the evening of December 23rd, the Israeli Defense Forces issued a statement stating that they had killed a senior member of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) during a joint military operation with Israeli intelligence agencies in Gaza City, northern Gaza Strip on the 22nd.

On December 23rd local time, it was learned that a Palestinian official familiar with the negotiation situation stated that the differences between Israel and the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) in the Gaza ceasefire negotiations have narrowed, but there are still key issues that have not been resolved.