On Thursday (December 26th), spot gold fluctuated narrowly in the Asian market, currently trading around $2618.98 per ounce. Due to the Christmas holiday in Europe and America, market trading is relatively light. However, changes in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States will still be released this trading day, and investors need to pay attention. In addition, investors need to pay attention to news related to the geopolitical situation.

The US job market may still remain strong

According to data released by the US Department of Labor on December 19th, the number of initial state unemployment claims decreased by 22000 seasonally adjusted to 220000 during the week ending December 14th. Economists predict 230000 people. In the first two weeks, the number of initial jobless claims increased by 27000 people. The number of recipients has entered a period of fluctuation, and the data may fluctuate significantly.

The unemployment benefit report shows that as of the week ending December 7th, the number of people who renewed their unemployment benefits reflecting recruitment decreased by 5000, and after seasonal adjustment, it was 1.874 million.

At present, the market expects the number of initial jobless claims to be 224000 as of the week ending December 21, and the market also expects the number of renewed jobless claims to be 1.88 million as of the week ending December 14.

The geopolitical situation remains volatile and unstable

According to statistics from the Gaza Strip health department on the 25th local time, the Israeli military has launched multiple attacks on the Gaza Strip in the past 24 hours, resulting in at least 23 Palestinian deaths

David Barnea, the head of Mossad in Israel, urges the country's leaders to focus on attacking Iran to curb the attacks by the Houthis

Israel is considering launching attacks within Yemen, targeting Houthi armed leaders, hoping that the organization will carry out a truly significant strike, but the Israeli side has little hope that such attacks will truly prevent the increasingly frequent missile and drone attacks against Israel in recent days.

It is reported that Israeli officials have discussed the plan to escalate the strike with their American counterparts, and the United States has also agreed to this plan. Sources say that Israel can only escalate its attacks to the point where it can repel the Houthis after US President elect Donald Trump takes office on January 20th

According to reports, on December 25th, Russia launched a large-scale missile attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, prompting the country's power grid operator to restrict electricity supply during Christmas.

In addition, the Russian military is attempting to flank and break through to the strategic city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, and is attempting to surround the city with superior forces and three army groups

After condemning Russia's Christmas attacks on some cities and their energy systems in Ukraine, US President Biden stated on Wednesday that he is requesting the US Department of Defense to continue providing weapons to Ukraine.

Biden said in a statement, "The purpose of this attack is to cut off winter heating and electricity for the Ukrainian people, and to endanger their power grid security

Ukraine stated that Russia attacked Ukraine's energy system and some cities on Wednesday using cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones. Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Washington has promised to provide Ukraine with 175 billion dollars of assistance

Pay attention to the trend of US dollar and US bond yields

The US dollar remained strong in light holiday trading on Tuesday, closing at 108.11, not far from the two-year high of 108.54 set last Friday. In Sanya City, the US dollar index is currently trading around 108.11.

Since the end of September, the US dollar has risen by over 7%, partly due to increasing market expectations that the US economy will accelerate growth under President elect Trump's policies, while sustained inflation has suppressed market expectations of how the Federal Reserve will actively cut interest rates.

These expectations for the United States are in stark contrast to the growth forecasts and interest rate views of other economies and central banks around the world, leading to a widening interest rate gap.

The path of interest rate cut predicted by the Federal Reserve last week was more cautious than expected by the market, which again boosted the yield of US treasury bond bonds. The yield of 10-year treasury bond bonds reached a seven month high of 4.630% in the middle of Tuesday's session. Ten years ago, the yield on US Treasury bonds was generally considered a risk-free rate, which is the opportunity cost of holding gold. The increase in this yield would suppress the attractiveness of gold.

If the US dollar and US Treasury yields remain strong, it may further suppress the trend of gold prices.

It should be noted that although the US financial market will resume trading today, most European countries are still closed today, and it is expected that overall trading may be subject to some restrictions.