On Monday (December 30th), during the European trading session, spot silver prices fluctuated slightly amidst sluggish trading volume, approaching last Friday's low of $29.50. Silver is under overall pressure, mainly due to market expectations for the Federal Reserve's moderate policy easing path in 2025. The market expects that although the Federal Reserve may enter the interest rate reduction cycle in the future, the interest rate reduction will be limited, which will drive the yield of US treasury bond bonds to remain high and indirectly support the strengthening of the US dollar.

At present, the yield of 10-year US treasury bond bonds fell 0.5% to about 4.60% in European trading hours. Although the daily yield has fallen slightly, it has risen nearly 15% since the beginning of the year. In addition, the US dollar index has slightly declined, but still hovers around the 108.00 level. The overall strength of the US dollar is mainly due to the guidance on future policies in the latest dot matrix of the Federal Reserve.

The latest dot matrix from the Federal Reserve shows that policymakers expect the federal funds rate to fall to 3.9% by the end of 2025. This data is slightly lower than previously expected, but still indicates that the Federal Reserve remains cautious about the pace of interest rate cuts. Previously, the Federal Reserve's policy stance gradually shifted from "dovish" to "cautious", reflecting its optimistic expectations for US economic growth and concerns about slower than expected inflation. Federal Reserve officials pointed out that the downward trend of inflation has slowed down in recent months, which has prompted them to adopt a more conservative stance on next year's interest rate cut path.

In the short term, the market is paying attention to the upcoming economic data to be released by the United States this week, especially the December ISM Manufacturing PMI data on Friday (January 3). The market expects the data to be 48.3, slightly lower than the previous value of 48.4. If the data is lower than expected, it may further suppress market risk appetite and drive up demand for safe haven assets. However, the strength of the US dollar may exert some restraint on the rise of silver prices.

Overall, analysts believe that the fundamental trend of spot silver is influenced by multiple factors such as the strong US dollar, high US bond yields (overall), and market expectations for Federal Reserve policies. From the perspective of the global market, the adjustment path of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy will still be the core driving force that dominates silver prices. In addition, changes in US economic data may become a catalyst for influencing market risk sentiment.

In terms of technology, analyst Dua provided the following interpretation:

From a technical perspective, spot silver prices have been under pressure recently and have fallen below the key uptrend line (around $30.00). This trend line extends upwards from the low of $22.30 on February 29th and plays an important supporting role in the daily chart. After falling below this trend line, silver prices showed a certain degree of weakness. At present, the price of silver is fluctuating around the 200 day moving average, which reflects that there is still significant uncertainty in the market regarding long-term trends.

On the 14th, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showed that silver's current momentum is weak. The RSI indicator is currently in the range of 20.00-40.00. If it continues to remain within this range, it may trigger new bearish momentum and further intensify downward pressure on silver prices.

Support: The key support for silver prices is around the September low of $27.75. If the price falls below this support zone, it may open up further room for correction, and the downward target may point to a lower level.

Resistance: If silver wants to restart its upward trend, it needs to break through the resistance level of $30.90 at the 50 day moving average. In addition, if the price can effectively break through $30.90, it may push the price back to the previous upward channel and further challenge the level of $32.00 or even higher.

From the perspective of the moving average system, silver prices are suppressed by multiple moving averages in the short term, especially the intersection area of the 9-day, 20 day, and 50 day moving averages, which further strengthens the strong resistance band between $30.00 and $30.90. In addition, after the silver price fell below $30.00, the market's wait-and-see sentiment significantly increased, and the low trading volume also indicates that the long and short sides are temporarily in a stalemate.

In summary, silver prices are currently in a game of key technical points. In the short term, if the price cannot break through the resistance zone of $30.00 to $30.90, it may continue to test the support level of $27.75. From a trend perspective, the short-term trend of silver prices tends to be volatile consolidation.