The data released by the US Department of Commerce on Thursday showed that the unadjusted retail purchase value increased by 0.4% after an upward revised growth rate of 0.8% in November, lower than the estimated value of 0.6%. Excluding cars and gasoline, sales increased by 0.3%, lower than the estimated 0.4%. Retail data shows that the sales revenue of the control group increased by 0.7% in December, the largest increase in three months. This sales revenue is an indicator of commodity expenditure in the government's calculation of gross domestic product (GDP), which does not include food services, car dealerships, building material stores, and gas stations. The data released on Thursday showed that consumers performed well during the holiday shopping season, as wages rose faster than prices. Although the potential inflation eased last month, Americans are still struggling with the high cost of living. As it is expected that import tariffs will increase after President elect Trump takes office next week, some retailers are also considering raising prices.

In addition, on Thursday, the European Central Bank released the minutes of its December monetary policy meeting, stating that confidence in achieving inflation targets in the first half of this year is increasing, and if the trend meets expectations, further interest rate cuts may be possible. In addition, at the December interest rate decision, some members hoped for a more in-depth discussion on a 50 basis point rate cut to prevent further deterioration of the eurozone economy. The minutes of the meeting stated that although inflation indicators in the eurozone are still at a high level, there are signs of slowing down, and wage data also indicates that wage pressures are gradually easing. It is expected that wage growth will significantly slow down in 2025. Based on comprehensive data, the European Central Bank expects inflation to stabilize around its mid-term target of 2% by 2025, and the Governing Council's confidence in achieving its target for inflation in the first half of this year is increasing. For the next interest rate path, the European Central Bank stated that based on current economic forecasts and the adjustment path of policy rates, there may be further interest rate cuts in January, but the dependence on data rules out any established conclusions about the future interest rate path.

The data that needs to be monitored today include China's fourth quarter GDP annual rate, the UK's December quarter adjusted retail sales monthly rate, the Eurozone's December adjusted CPI annual rate, the initial monthly rate of construction permits in the US in December, the annualized monthly rate of new home starts in the US in December, and the monthly rate of industrial output in the US in December.

US dollar index

The US dollar index fluctuated downwards yesterday, falling below the 109.00 mark, and the current exchange rate is trading around 108.90. The retail sales data released by the United States during the period showed weak performance in the initial jobless claims data, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in March reignited, which is the main reason for the continued downward pressure on the US dollar index. In addition, dovish remarks made by Federal Reserve officials during the period also exerted some pressure on the exchange rate. Today, pay attention to the pressure situation around 109.50, with support below around 108.50.

EUR/USD

The euro fluctuated upward yesterday, with a slight daily increase and the current exchange rate trading around 1.0300. In addition to providing some support for the exchange rate through short covering, the sustained pullback of the US dollar index under the joint pressure of dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials and weak economic data is also an important factor supporting the rebound of the euro. However, the meeting minutes released by the European Central Bank during the period were biased towards dovish sentiment, which limited the rebound space of the exchange rate. Today, pay attention to the pressure situation around 1.0400, with support below around 1.0200.

GBP/USD

The pound fluctuated and consolidated yesterday, with a slight decline in daily trading. The current exchange rate is trading around 1.2230. In addition to profit taking exerting a certain pressure on the exchange rate, the overall weak performance of the economic data released by the UK during the period was also an important factor in pressuring the pound to weaken. In addition, concerns about the UK's finances and expectations of interest rate cuts from the Bank of England have also exerted some pressure on the exchange rate. Today, pay attention to the pressure situation around 1.2300, with support below around 1.2150