On Thursday, January 30th, before the European market opened, the Australian dollar/US dollar fell for the fourth consecutive trading day. However, after the release of the Australian Export Price Index, the AUD/USD has rebounded. According to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian export prices increased by 3.6% month on month in the fourth quarter of 2024, successfully reversing the 4.3% decline in the third quarter and marking the first increase since the fourth quarter of 2023.

At the same time, the Australian Import Price Index also rose by 0.2% month on month in the fourth quarter of 2024, showing a stronger rebound than market expectations. Previously, the market expected import prices to decrease by 1.5%. This increase is mainly affected by the rise in gold prices. Due to increased economic uncertainty, the market has turned to safe haven assets such as gold, driving gold prices to a historic high in October and thus pushing up Australia's import prices.

Several major Australian banks, including ANZ, CBA, Westpac, and NAB, expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in February. Previously, NAB had expected a rate cut to occur in May, but now it has advanced this prediction to the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting in February.

The easing of inflationary pressure at the end of 2024 has further prompted market speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia may consider cutting interest rates in February. Since November 2023, the Reserve Bank of Australia has kept the official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35% and has consistently emphasized that policy will not be relaxed until inflation "continues" to return to the target range of 2% -3%.

Technical analyst interpretation:

The AUD/USD exchange rate is currently maintained around 0.6220, below the upward channel of the daily chart, indicating that the market may be turning bearish. On the 14th, the relative strength index (RSI) remained below 50, further confirming the downward momentum.

The key support level for AUD/USD is in the 0.6131 range. This price level is the lowest since April 2020 and was recorded on January 13th.

From an upward perspective, the immediate resistance level of AUD/USD is around 0.6252, followed closely by the lower boundary of the uptrend channel at around 0.6280. If the exchange rate can remain above that level and re-enter an upward trend, it may shift market sentiment and push the Australian dollar/US dollar back towards a bullish direction. At that time, the exchange rate may once again challenge the upper boundary of the channel, around 0.6380.

summary

From a fundamental perspective, the Australian dollar/US dollar exchange rate is influenced by multiple factors, including the rebound in Australian export and import prices, economic uncertainty driving up gold prices, and market expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates.

From a technical perspective, the Australian dollar/US dollar exchange rate is currently facing strong technical support and resistance levels, and the market trend may be affected by these key technical levels. If the exchange rate falls below the support of 0.6131, it may further intensify downward pressure, while if it breaks through the resistance of 0.6252, it may turn back to an upward trend.

The market is closely monitoring the upcoming US GDP data and the policy decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which will have a significant impact on the trend of the Australian dollar/US dollar exchange rate.