On Friday morning (January 31st) in the Asian market, spot gold fluctuated narrowly at a high level, briefly hitting a historical high of $2799.46 per ounce, and currently trading around $2796.34 per ounce. Gold prices rose 1.25% on Thursday, hitting a new historical high and closing at $2794.24 per ounce, stimulated by safe haven demand triggered by the threat of US tariffs. In addition, the US GDP data for the fourth quarter performed poorly, and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell to a six-year low, providing upward momentum for gold prices. At present, the market is still paying attention to an important inflation report in search of clues to the Federal Reserve's policy path.

Jim Wyckoff, Senior Market Analyst at Kitco Metals, said, "We are seeing stronger uncertainty and anxiety brought about by the Trump administration's new policies on trade and foreign policy... New technical buying is pouring in as the prices of gold and silver are now trending upwards

Earlier this week, the White House announced that US President Trump plans to impose high tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Saturday, and is considering imposing tariffs on major Asian countries.

On Wednesday, as expected, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, and Chairman Powell said he would not rush to cut rates again.

Lou Brien, a strategist at DRW Trading, stated that Powell also emphasized some warning signals in the US labor market.

He said: "I believe that the Federal Reserve sends a signal that it is not in a hurry to continue to cut interest rates... and its continued concern about the labor market, which together become the reason to buy treasury bond bonds."

Data shows that the US economy slowed down in the fourth quarter, but analysts believe that strong domestic demand may keep the Federal Reserve on a slow path of interest rate cuts.

The report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce shows that the initial year-on-year growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the fourth quarter was 2.3%, and in the third quarter it was 3.1%. Economists surveyed by Reuters previously predicted a 2.6% GDP growth in the fourth quarter. Economists' estimates range from 1.7% to 3.2%.

The yield of US 10-year treasury bond bonds briefly hit its lowest level in six weeks on Thursday, following the trend of European bond yields after the European Central Bank cut interest rates. The yield of 10-year treasury bond fell 3.9 basis points to 4.5163% on Thursday, hitting 4.486% earlier, the lowest since December 20.

The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points and left room for further policy easing, with concerns about economic growth outweighing concerns about sustained inflation.

The data also shows that the inflation rate in the United States rebounded in the fourth quarter, with the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index excluding food and energy rising by 2.5%, compared to a 2.2% increase in the third quarter.

The US economy is expected to grow by 2.8% for the full year of 2024. Growth of 2.9% in 2023. This expansion rate is much higher than the 1.8% growth rate that Federal Reserve policymakers believe will not stimulate inflation.

Another report from the Department of Labor shows that as of the week ending January 25th, the number of first-time applicants for state unemployment benefits decreased by 16000, to 207000 after seasonal adjustment, further highlighting the vitality of the labor market.

Despite strong consumer spending, the decline in imports has led to a narrowing of the trade deficit. After dragging down GDP for three consecutive quarters, trade had a neutral impact in the fourth quarter. The decrease in accumulated inventory of enterprises indicates that consumers are purchasing goods in advance due to the expectation of increased tariffs.

Enterprise inventory increased by $4.4 billion in the fourth quarter and $57.9 billion in the third quarter. Inventory has caused a drag of 0.93 percentage points on GDP. Trade and inventory are the most volatile components of GDP.

From mid September to early November, Boeing workers went on strike, causing the factory to be paralyzed, interrupting aircraft production and delivery, and resulting in reduced equipment expenses. Equipment investment shrank by 7.8% in the fourth quarter, followed by double-digit growth in the third quarter.

The Federal Reserve must also assess the impact of the policies issued by the Trump administration on the US economy.

Federal funds rate futures traders believe that the next rate cut is most likely in June, and they also believe that there may be two rate cuts before the end of the year, each by 25 basis points.

The next important economic data will be the December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for the United States on Friday. Economists predict that the PCE price index will rise by 0.3% month on month, and the core PCE price index will rise by 0.2% month on month, with year-on-year increases of 2.6% and 2.8%, respectively.

In addition, Federal Reserve Governor Bauman will give a speech on the US economy and banking industry this trading day, and investors also need to pay attention.