According to preliminary data released by the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the overall retail industry in Germany achieved relatively positive growth in 2024. In 2024, the German retail industry grew by 1.1% in real (price adjusted) terms and 2.5% in nominal (unadjusted) terms. Compared to 2023, the actual and nominal sales of the German retail industry have achieved slight growth, indicating a rebound in shopping demand among German consumers in 2024.

It is worth noting that the growth of the retail industry in 2024 was affected by different performances in the first and second half of the year. In the first half of 2024, actual sales decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, but rebounded in the second half, with actual sales increasing by 2.6%. Compared to 2021, sales in 2024 have decreased, especially when compared to the relatively high sales level of the year. Actual sales in 2024 decreased by 2.9%, but nominal sales increased by 12.9%. This indicates that despite the increase in total sales, consumers' purchasing power and behavior still face certain challenges considering price increases.

Compared to the pre pandemic retail level in 2019, the retail sales performance in 2024 is more optimistic. The actual sales in 2024 are 2.3% higher than in 2019, while the nominal sales are 22.8% higher. This data reflects the strong recovery of the retail industry after the epidemic, especially in terms of nominal growth, and the increase in consumer spending may have had a positive driving effect on the retail industry.

From the perspective of specific retail product categories, the growth of food retail in 2024 is relatively moderate, with actual growth of 0.7% and nominal growth of 2.9%. Among them, food retail increased by 0.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, and performed even stronger in the second half, with an actual growth of 0.8%. This indicates that although consumer demand for food continues to exist, the overall growth rate is not very prominent.

Compared to food retail, non food retail has shown a more significant growth. The actual sales of non food retail increased by 1.4% in 2024, with a nominal growth of 2.2%. Although retail growth was relatively weak in the first half of the year, with actual sales decreasing by 1.0%, a strong rebound was achieved in the second half, with an increase of 3.7%.

In addition, online shopping and mail order retail continue to show strong growth momentum in 2024, with actual sales increasing by 5.0% year-on-year. However, in the first half of 2024, the actual sales of online retail experienced a 1.4% decline, but in the second half of the year, it resumed growth and reached 11.1%.

In terms of Christmas season sales performance in December 2024, the German retail industry has shown strong growth. According to preliminary data, retail sales in December 2024 increased by 1.8% in real terms (adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects) and 3.0% in nominal terms compared to December 2023. Specifically, the food retail industry experienced a decline in sales in December, with actual sales decreasing by 0.4% year-on-year and a nominal increase of 2.3%. Non food retail, on the other hand, achieved significant growth, with actual sales increasing by 3.4% and nominal growth of 4.0%.

However, compared to November 2024, retail sales in December have declined, with actual sales decreasing by 1.6% and nominal sales decreasing by 0.9%. Both food retail and non food retail have shown varying degrees of decline, especially in the food retail industry where sales have decreased significantly, with actual sales decreasing by 1.7%.

In summary, the German retail industry has shown an overall growth trend in 2024. Although there was a certain decline in the first half of the year, especially in the performance of food retail and non food retail, there was a strong rebound in the second half of the year. In the retail data for the Christmas season, despite short-term seasonal fluctuations, the overall performance is good, indicating a recovery in consumer demand. As 2024 comes to an end, the performance of the retail market provides important reference data for economic development in the coming years.

Analyst interpretation:

The volatility of the German retail market in 2024 is mainly reflected in two factors: the difference in sales between the first and second half of the year, and the significant impact of traditional holidays (such as Christmas) on retail performance.

In the second and third quarters of 2024, the recovery trend of retail sales is very obvious, especially in non food retail and online shopping retail. The data for the second half of the year shows signs of a rebound in consumer demand, especially with a significant increase in demand for non food goods, indicating that the recovery of consumer confidence and growth in spending may continue in the coming months.

Overall, the German retail industry is showing a gradual upward trend in 2024. In the second half of the year, especially during the Christmas season, sales data indicate a recovery in market demand, laying a solid foundation for the growth of the retail market in the coming years.