On Tuesday (February 4th), US crude oil continued to decline during the Asian trading session, trading around $72.44. Fundamentally, Trump imposed comprehensive tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, and major Asian countries on Tuesday.

Concerns about global economic growth and reigniting inflation have resurfaced, according to Amarpreet Singh, an analyst at Barclays Bank, in a report

Imposing tariffs on imported energy from Canada may be more disruptive to the domestic energy market than imposing tariffs on imported energy from Mexico, and may even have a counterproductive effect on one of the President's main goals of reducing energy costs.

According to data from the US Department of Energy, Canada and Mexico together account for about a quarter of the oil supply processed by US refineries into fuels such as gasoline and heating oil.

The US manufacturing industry achieved its first growth in over two years in January, but the recovery may be short-lived due to Trump's tariff policies, which could further increase raw material prices and block supply chains.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Monday that the types of tariffs announced by the Trump administration could push up inflation, while noting that there is currently a lot of uncertainty and that there is no urgency for the Fed to change the direction of monetary policy.

OPEC+agreed on Monday to adhere to the policy of gradually increasing oil production starting from April and to remove the US Government Energy Information Administration (EIA) from its sources of information used to monitor production and compliance with supply agreements.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak announced on Monday that the OPEC+Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting of the major oil producing countries discussed US President Trump's call to increase oil production.

OPEC+had multiple conflicts with US President Trump during his first term from 2016 to 2020, when Trump demanded that OPEC+increase production to compensate for the decline in Iranian supply caused by US sanctions.

OPEC+stated in a statement: "After a comprehensive analysis by the OPEC Secretariat, the committee has replaced Rystad Energy and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) with Kpler, OilX, and ESAI.

As a secondary source of information used to evaluate crude oil production and compliance with production reduction agreements.

An OPEC+source stated that the exclusion of EIA data was due to the agency's failure to communicate the required information.

The current production reduction scale of OPEC+is 5.85 million barrels per day, equivalent to about 5.7% of global supply, which is accumulated through a series of production reduction agreements reached since 2022.

In December, OPEC+extended its latest production reduction plan to the first quarter of 2025 and postponed the plan to start increasing production until April.

Due to weak demand and increased supply from outside the group, OPEC+has repeatedly postponed production cuts, and this extension is the most recent.

Starting from April, the United Arab Emirates will end its 2.2 million barrels per day production reduction plan and begin increasing production, with a monthly increase of 138000 barrels per day.

The increase in production will continue until September 2026. According to OPEC+'s past practice, it is expected that the final decision on increasing production in April will be made in early March.

From a technical perspective, the daily trend of US crude oil has continued to decline after rising and falling, coupled with a decrease in market risk appetite, forming a resonance decline. Currently, it has not yet fallen below the support level of the $72 integer mark.

Observe whether it is effective. If it continues to break, there is a possibility that oil prices may return to the bearish range.