In the past two trading days, international oil prices have cumulatively fallen by 3%, with Brent crude trading below $73 per barrel and WTI crude approaching $69. The crude oil market is facing its largest monthly decline since September last year, reflecting concerns about the global economic outlook.

IG Asia Pte market strategist Ye Junrong said, "The prospect of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia remains a focus of market attention, and any agreement could lead to an influx of Russian oil supply into the market. In addition, weak US economic data and tariff uncertainty also put pressure on oil prices

Trump's tariff threat intensifies market uncertainty

Trump recently stated that tariff measures against Mexico and Canada will still be implemented, but did not specify the specific effective time. At the same time, he also plans to impose tariffs on EU goods, further exacerbating market concerns about global economic growth.

A commodity analyst pointed out, "If Trump ultimately implements these tariffs, it will have a chain reaction on the global supply chain, which in turn will affect crude oil demand

Despite the restrictions on Iranian oil due to sanctions, which the market had expected to support oil prices, the current market sentiment has been dominated by global trade concerns, making this positive factor temporarily ineffective in supporting oil prices.

Global supply side changes: Venezuela, Iraq, and Russia

In addition to trade policies, changes in the supply side are also important factors affecting oil prices. The Trump administration announced plans to revoke Chevron's operating license in Venezuela, which could affect the country's recovery process in crude oil production.

In addition, Iraq and Kurdistan have reached an agreement to resume suspended crude oil exports, but have not yet provided a specific implementation timetable.

Market analysts said, "If the agreement between Iraq and Kurdistan is implemented, it will increase supply in the Middle East, thereby putting further pressure on oil prices

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelensky plans to visit Washington this Friday and is expected to discuss potential solutions to the Ukraine Russia conflict with Trump. If the US advances the lifting of some sanctions on Russian energy exports, it may lead to the return of Russian crude oil supply to the market, further exacerbating the pressure of oversupply.

Editor's viewpoint:

The current oil market is being affected by multiple factors such as global economic prospects, trade policy uncertainty, and supply side changes. Although OPEC+may continue to limit some production, market concerns about slowing global demand have dominated trading sentiment.

In the short term, oil prices still face downward pressure, and investors need to closely monitor the situation in Ukraine, Trump's tariff policies, and OPEC+'s next steps to assess future trends.