The International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a warning on Thursday (March 6) that if the tariffs imposed by the United States on Mexico and Canada continue to be implemented, they will have a significant adverse impact on the economies of both countries. This statement reveals new turbulence in the global economic landscape, especially against the backdrop of a shift in US trade policy.

IMF's first substantive warning

IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack pointed out in a statement on Thursday that the tariffs imposed by the United States on Mexico and Canada, as well as the new tariff measures on China, are significant new developments in the global economy. She emphasized that Mexico and Canada are highly integrated with the US economy, and the continued implementation of tariffs will directly impact the economic stability of both countries.

The IMF plans to release a comprehensive assessment of the shift in US trade policy in April, with a focus on the countries most affected. This assessment will be conducted in sync with the latest economic outlook report released by the World Bank at its spring meeting in Washington.

The increasing uncertainty of the global economy

Kozack mentioned that the global economy is currently undergoing significant changes, including the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, changes in capital flow patterns, and a significant slowdown in global trade growth. At present, the global trade growth rate is only 3%, far below the average level from 2000 to 2019.

She pointed out that financial market volatility is increasing and global uncertainty indicators are also rising. In history, households and businesses often suppress consumption and investment decisions during periods of high uncertainty, which further exacerbates economic instability.

Further trade measures by the United States

US President Trump has vowed to take more trade measures, including reciprocal tariffs, to match the high tariffs of trading partners such as India and South Korea. This statement indicates that global trade tensions may further escalate.

Kozack also mentioned that the sustained decline in US Treasury yields since early 2025 may indicate that the market is reassessing its views on the outlook for monetary policy, further exacerbating global economic uncertainty.

conclusion

The IMF's warning not only reveals the direct impact of US tariff policies on Mexico and Canada, but also reflects the fragility of the global economy under trade tensions. With further adjustments to US trade policies, global economic uncertainty will continue to increase, and governments and businesses around the world need to reassess their economic strategies to address this new global challenge.

In the short term, the Canadian dollar may face depreciation pressure due to intensified trade frictions, slower economic growth, and capital outflows. The medium to long term trend depends on the Canadian government's policy response, changes in the global economic environment, and the ultimate solution to trade frictions. Investors need to closely monitor relevant developments, especially the direction of the Bank of Canada's monetary policy and the progress of trade negotiations.