Overnight, Brent crude oil futures rose 16 cents, or 0.2%, to close at $69.46 per barrel, while US crude oil futures rose 5 cents, or 0.1%, to close at $66.36.

Brent crude oil once fell to $68.33, the lowest since December 2021, mainly due to OPEC+'s decision to raise production quotas for the first time since 2022, and the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, putting pressure on oil prices.

Market analysts point out that current oil prices are influenced by multiple factors, including OPEC+supply policies, uncertainty in US tariff policies, and changes in geopolitical situations.

OPEC+'s decision to increase production, improved prospects for the Russia Ukraine peace agreement, and the fluctuation of US tariff policies have led to continued volatility in the crude oil market—— Dennis Kissler, Senior Vice President of Trading at BOK Financial

OPEC+decides to increase production, market focuses on supply side changes

OPEC+announced this week that it will increase crude oil production starting from April, marking the first time since 2022 that the organization has relaxed production restrictions.

This decision has raised concerns in the market about global supply growth, especially with the unexpected significant increase in US crude oil inventories, further curbing the potential for oil price increases.

At the same time, Russia has stated that it will not easily compromise on the achievements made in the conflict in Ukraine, but still seeks to reach a peace agreement that ensures its own security.

Market participants believe that if the situation between Russia and Ukraine tends to ease, it may reduce the risk of global supply chain disruptions, thereby affecting the trend of oil prices.

US adjusts tariff policy, short-term impact on oil market

US President Trump announced a one month exemption from tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, and the market is adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards it.

In addition, according to informed sources, the US may lift the 10% tariff imposed on Canadian crude oil and gasoline imports that comply with existing trade agreements. If this measure is implemented, it will ease the tension in North American energy trade and may provide some support for oil prices.

US strengthens sanctions on Iran, may affect global oil supply

US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the US plans to impose stricter economic sanctions on Iran to force a significant decline in its oil exports, while also putting pressure on the Iranian currency. Market insiders believe that if Iran's crude oil exports significantly decrease, it may have an impact on global crude oil supply and support the stabilization of oil prices.

Edit viewpoint

The current oil market is affected by multiple intertwined factors, including OPEC+production increases, changes in US tariff policies, and sanctions against Iran, all of which make it difficult for oil prices to have a clear direction in the short term. Although OPEC+has decided to increase production, it remains to be seen whether global supply will truly increase.

In addition, although the US tariff exemptions for Canada and Mexico can stabilize market sentiment in the short term, there is still uncertainty in policy. If the US ultimately lifts tariffs on Canadian crude oil, it will help alleviate supply pressure.