The non farm payroll jobs in the United States are expected to increase by 160000 in February, and the unemployment rate remains stable at 4.0%, demonstrating the fundamental resilience of the labor market. However, factors such as trade policy uncertainty, federal government spending cuts, and extreme weather may put pressure on job growth in the coming months. Although the trend of economic expansion continues, the decline in business and consumer confidence, as well as the volatility of the stock market, have cast a shadow over the prospects of the labor market.

Trade Policy and Business Confidence

The Trump administration's trade policies are constantly changing, making it difficult for businesses to develop long-term plans, resulting in a significant decline in business confidence. Since January, the business and consumer confidence index has erased the gains after Trump's victory, and the stock market has also experienced a sell-off. WorkingNation senior policy advisor Jane Oates pointed out that uncertainty is the biggest concern for employers, and this unstable business atmosphere may lead to a weak job market in the spring.

Extreme weather and limited employment rebound

The winter storm and California wildfires in January led to lower than expected job growth, and in February, most parts of the United States experienced a blizzard, further limiting the scale of the employment rebound. Economists' forecasts for non farm employment growth in February range from 30000 to 300000, reflecting the uncertainty of the market's impact on extreme weather.

Potential drag on government employment

The federal government's recruitment freeze and layoffs measures may have a negative impact on the job market. Michael Pugliese, a senior economist at Wells Fargo, predicts that federal employment may decline slightly by 5000-10000 in February, while the March employment report may show a larger decline. Government employment, as an important pillar of employment growth in recent years, its slowdown may weaken the overall performance of the labor market.

Salary growth and economic expansion

Despite the challenges facing the job market, the average hourly wage is expected to increase by 0.3% month on month and 4.1% year-on-year, consistent with the trend of moderate economic expansion. The steady increase in wages provides support for consumer spending, but overall economic growth remains slow.

The policy space of the Federal Reserve

The stability of the labor market provides more time for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates unchanged, allowing it to continue monitoring the impact of trade tariffs and immigration policies on the economy. Boston College economics professor Brian Bethune pointed out that although the US economy has shown resilience after the pandemic, businesses are facing a dual impact of budget uncertainty and large-scale tariff proposals, which could pose a threat to future job growth.

Summary: Hidden concerns in resilience require vigilance against multiple risks in the future

Overall, the non farm payroll data for February in the United States showed the basic resilience of the labor market, with stable unemployment rates and moderate wage growth, providing support for economic expansion. However, the uncertainty of trade policies, the impact of extreme weather, and the potential decline in government employment have all brought uncertainty to employment growth in the coming months. The Federal Reserve needs to closely monitor the potential impact of external shocks on the economy while maintaining interest rates unchanged. Although the US economy has shown encouraging resilience after the pandemic, the challenges faced by businesses cannot be ignored, and the future job market may face more tests.

In the short term, gold prices may receive support due to economic uncertainty and inflation expectations, but if the job market remains stable and expectations of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates rise, it may put pressure on gold prices.