According to the latest research by energy consulting firm Rystad Energy, natural gas supply in the eastern region of Australia is rapidly decreasing, mainly due to:

Exhaustion of old gas fields:

The production of existing offshore gas fields is declining, putting the safety of natural gas supply in New South Wales, Victoria, and Tasmania at risk.

Ryustad Energy Vice President Kaushal Ramesh pointed out that this could repeat the energy crisis of 2022, as the supply buffer capacity in the southeastern region has been significantly weakened. If there are multiple shocks on both the supply and demand sides, natural gas prices may soar again.

Infrastructure bottleneck:

The northwest of Australia is a major production area for LNG, but lacks sufficient pipeline infrastructure to efficiently transport it to the southeastern consumption area thousands of kilometers away.

The storage and pipeline transportation capacity of southern states is limited, and even though Queensland still has sufficient natural gas resources, the southern region still struggles to obtain stable supply in emergency situations.

Importing LNG has become a trend:

Ramesh emphasized, "Even in the most optimistic scenario, it is almost inevitable for Australia to import LNG

Several companies have proposed plans to build LNG import terminals, including billionaire Andrew Forrest's Squadron Energy, Viva Energy Group, and Royal Vopak NV in the Netherlands.

The upcoming federal election (to be held no later than May) will push energy policy to the forefront, with clear policy differences between the two major parties:

The ruling party promises to achieve 82% of electricity from renewable energy sources by 2030, aiming to reduce dependence on natural gas while promoting energy transition.

Opposition: Propose building nuclear reactors as a long-term solution to energy shortages to reduce dependence on imported LNG.

In addition, the Victorian government will propose at the National Energy Ministers' Meeting on Friday that the National Energy Market Operator (AEMO) be the primary purchaser of LNG to ensure stable market supply.

Expert opinion: Australia's energy shortage exposes structural problems

Energy analyst Saul Kavonic criticized the possibility of Australia importing LNG, stating, "As one of the world's largest natural gas exporters, it is absurd for Australia to import natural gas

He pointed out that Queensland still has sufficient natural gas resources, but due to limited pipeline and storage capacity, the southern region may still face supply shortages in emergency situations.

In fact, Australia is not the first exporting country to face similar problems: countries such as Egypt and Indonesia have also had to turn to importing LNG in the past due to population growth and surging domestic demand.

But Australia's situation is even more unique, as its energy resources are unevenly distributed across regions and infrastructure construction lags behind, creating a strong contrast between its position as a global natural gas exporting power and domestic supply shortages.