The latest monthly report released by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Wednesday shows that the organization maintains its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 unchanged, with an expected increase of 1.45 million barrels per day and 1.43 million barrels per day, respectively.

OPEC believes that despite the market volatility caused by new trade policies, the global economy still has the ability to adjust to cope with these changes.

OPEC stated in the report, "With the continuous introduction of trade policies, trade concerns are expected to intensify market volatility. However, the global economy will gradually adapt to the new situation

The latest data from OPEC+shows that the organization's crude oil production increased by 363000 barrels per day in February, reaching 41.01 million barrels per day, far exceeding market expectations. Among them, Kazakhstan's production growth was particularly significant, reaching 1.767 million barrels per day, far exceeding the 1.468 million barrels per day quota agreed upon with OPEC+.

Industry insiders told market research agencies, "Kazakhstan's overproduction poses greater challenges for OPEC+in its April production increase plan

According to OPEC data, in addition to Kazakhstan, countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Nigeria, and Gabon have also exceeded their crude oil production quotas, but the magnitude is relatively small.

This makes the decision of OPEC+to increase production by 138000 barrels per day starting from April more complex. The government of Kazakhstan has committed to reducing production between March and May to align with the overall goals of OPEC+.

Industry insiders have analyzed that due to Chevron's expansion of production in Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field, the country's crude oil supply continues to be at record levels, which could pose a challenge to OPEC+'s production management and put downward pressure on global oil prices.

At the same time, data released by the US government showed that crude oil inventories increased by 1.4 million barrels last week, lower than market expectations of 2 million barrels. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories decreased by 5.7 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations of 1.9 million barrels, indicating strong market demand.

This week's data suggests that demand is stronger than expected, which may support an increase in oil prices, "said Josh Young, Chief Investment Officer of Bison Interests

The uncertainty of global trade policies remains a focus of market attention. US President Trump officially implemented import tariffs on steel and aluminum on Wednesday, intensifying market concerns about global trade.

Market analysts believe that tariff policies may lead to increased costs for businesses, intensified inflationary pressures, and potentially affect consumer confidence, thereby dragging down global economic growth and ultimately impacting oil demand.

In addition, the US dollar index is hovering around a five month low, which provides some support for oil prices. The market is digesting the impact of changes in US European trade policies, while also paying attention to potential ceasefire developments between Russia and Ukraine.

OPEC reiterated its optimistic attitude towards the oil market in the report, stating that the global economy still has sufficient adaptability to respond to changes in trade policies, and expects air and road travel to continue supporting oil consumption.

OPEC stated in the report that "despite heightened trade concerns, the global economy is expected to gradually adjust to maintain oil demand growth

Editor's viewpoint:

The OPEC+production increase plan contrasts sharply with market concerns about global trade policies, reflecting the complexity of the current oil market. Although oil prices are supported by inventory data in the short term, uncertainty in trade policies may put pressure on oil demand in the long run.

At present, the technical level is still only a oversold rebound and has not changed the downward trend. We should be cautious in the short term to prevent further decline after the rebound.

In addition, Kazakhstan's excess production indicates that OPEC+still faces challenges in controlling supply, and production adjustments in the coming months will be a key factor affecting oil prices.