After experiencing a period of volatility in the Asian session on the previous trading day, we clearly pointed out the trend of gold breaking through and rising during the European session.

As expected, the market price broke through strongly after testing 2930, and the daily chart continued to rise, not only recovering the decline of the previous three trading days, but also steadily standing above 2930, breaking the previous correction range. This marks the official end of this round of correction and the recovery of bulls.

From the news perspective, the key CPI data showed a moderate performance, hitting the smallest inflation rate since April 1st, which is more favorable for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Combining previous ADP data GDP The impact of non farm payroll data and unemployment rate makes it urgent for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Currently, the probability of a rate cut in June has significantly increased, and there may even be a rate cut in May. This provides strong support for gold bulls, and the upward trend of gold is still worth looking forward to.

In terms of international politics, although the United States and Ukraine have signed a 30 day peace agreement, the final decision-making power of the Russia Ukraine peace talks lies in Russia's hands. From the current attitude and position of Russia, it is difficult for Ukraine to meet its demands for land and occupied territories, and the agreement is likely to fail. This will not only not weaken market risk aversion, but may even further exacerbate it, which is a potential positive factor for gold prices.

From a technical perspective, the downward trend of gold falling to the 2880 line this Monday is a typical double dip. In the upward trend, the rapid and significant decline from the high point of 2956 in the early stage requires the bulls to gradually accumulate energy for a rebound, and the second bottoming out is to better consolidate the bottom. Investors need to be clear that a pullback is just a correction to the market, unlike a turnaround. There are many pullbacks during the uptrend, but there is only one top. Do not easily conclude a pullback as a top.