Before the European market on Thursday (March 13th), the AUD/USD was under pressure, fluctuating around the 0.6300 line. The intensification of global trade tensions, unexpected US economic data, and the decline in inflation expectations in Australia have collectively affected the performance of the Australian dollar. Despite President Trump's tariff policies injecting uncertainty into the market and dragging down the US dollar, the Australian dollar has not been able to escape downward pressure.

Firstly, based on Australia's domestic economic data, consumer inflation expectations in March fell to 3.6%, a significant decrease from 4.6% in February, reflecting a weakened market expectation for future inflationary pressures. At the same time, Australian Prime Minister Albanese reiterated that Australia will not impose retaliatory tariffs on the United States, believing that such measures will only push up costs for Australian consumers and exacerbate domestic inflationary pressures.

In addition, the strong performance of the US CPI data in February exceeded expectations, providing some support for the US dollar. Data shows that the core CPI growth in the United States in February was only 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%. This cooling sign may exacerbate market expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Despite continuous signals from Federal Reserve officials that they are not in a hurry to adjust monetary policy, market concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth have become increasingly strong, leading to continued caution in the market.

Australia's recently released economic growth data has shown strong performance, with its domestic economy experiencing its first accelerated growth since last year. Therefore, although global trade uncertainty has put some pressure on the Australian dollar, Australia's economic recovery may still provide some support for the Australian dollar in the short term.

Technical analyst interpretation:

From a technical perspective, the current trend of AUD/USD is clearly being suppressed by the downward trend. According to the analysis of daily and hourly charts, the Australian dollar has broken through multiple support levels, especially in the range of 0.6290-0.6300, and the current price is oscillating and consolidating below these key support levels. This shows that market sentiment is still biased towards pessimism, especially under the influence of global trade tensions and US economic data, there is a high possibility of further depreciation of the Australian dollar.

The MACD indicator on the daily chart shows a sell signal, and the RSI is at a neutral level of 50, indicating significant market selling pressure. At the same time, the short-term moving average system presents a bearish arrangement, further strengthening downward pressure. Therefore, technically speaking, if the Australian dollar/US dollar continues to fluctuate at its current level, it may face greater downside risks in the future.

From the hourly chart, the AUD/USD continued to be under pressure after falling below the support of 0.6300, approaching the 0.6280 area. This region has become a key support point for the downward trend, and once this level is broken, it is expected that prices will further decline, with targets pointing towards around 0.6260 and 0.6250. On the daily chart, the 0.6330 line constitutes short-term rebound resistance. If the price cannot effectively break through this level, it may further verify the downward trend.

Overall, the Australian dollar is still under dual pressure from global trade uncertainty and differences in internal economic data performance, with both technical and fundamental factors pointing towards further decline in the short term. However, if the Australian dollar/US dollar can hold its current support and effectively rebound above 0.6300, there may be a chance for a corrective rebound.