On Friday morning (March 14th) in the Asian market, spot gold fluctuated at a high level and is currently trading around $2986.08 per ounce. Gold prices surged over $50 on Thursday, closing at $2988.64 per ounce. On Friday, they slightly broke a record high to $2989.72 per ounce, approaching the key milestone of $3000 per ounce, driven by rising tariff uncertainty and bets on the Federal Reserve relaxing monetary policy.

Gold is currently in a long-term bull market, "said Alex Ebkarian, Chief Operating Officer of Allegiance Gold." We predict that gold prices will fluctuate between $3000 and $3200 this year

The unpredictable trade policies of US President Trump have contributed to gold, an asset favored by investors in geopolitical and economic turmoil. US Secretary of Commerce Lutnik said that the economic recession was "worth it" in order to get Trump's economic policies in place.

US President Trump threatened on Thursday to impose a 200% tariff on imported wine, brandy, and other alcohol products from Europe, opening a new front in the global trade war. The trade war has disrupted financial markets and raised concerns about an economic recession.

Affected by this news, the stock market fell, continuously driving up the safe haven demand for gold. Investors are concerned that Trump will set stricter trade barriers around the world's largest consumer market.

Trump's threat is a response to the EU's plan to impose tariffs on American whiskey and other products next month - which in itself is a response to Trump's 25% steel and aluminum import tariffs that came into effect on Wednesday. The European Commission did not immediately comment on Trump's post.

Canada is the largest aluminum supplier to the United States, as well as a neighboring country and close ally. Canada has also announced its countermeasures against Trump's metal tariffs.

Alcohol is gradually becoming a key friction point in the trade war initiated by Trump since his return to the White House in January this year.

With the deterioration of bilateral relations and Trump's threat to annex Canada, some Canadian retailers have removed American bourbon whiskey from their shelves.

Many of the countermeasures proposed by the EU, with a total value of 26 billion euros (approximately 28.31 billion US dollars), will apply to products such as dental floss and bathrobes that have only symbolic value.

But the proposal to impose a 50% tariff on American bourbon will have a significant impact on the industry, as exports have been steadily growing since the US lifted tariffs imposed by Trump during his first term from 2017 to 2021.

According to the industry organization American Distilled Spirits Council, the EU will account for approximately 40% of all spirits exports in 2023. Similarly, according to data from the European Union Statistics Office, the United States accounts for 31% of the EU's wine and spirits exports.

Trump stated that his proposal to impose a 200% tax on European alcoholic beverages would benefit domestic producers, leading to an increase in stock prices for American beverage manufacturers.

But his series of threats has scared investors, businesses, and consumers. Due to Trump's actions threatening the international supply chain, manufacturers in industries such as jets, coffee, clothing, automobiles, and packaged food are eager to evaluate their businesses.

Some economists argue that this uncertainty threatens the health of the US economy and increases the risk of economic recession.

According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday, 70% of Americans expect Trump's tariff will lead to price increases.

Next Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) remained unchanged for the first time in seven months in February, and the number of initial jobless claims decreased last week, indicating economic stability, which should allow the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates unchanged next Wednesday.

However, the calm situation depicted in the report released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday may be overturned by significant government spending cuts. These actions have resulted in thousands of federal employees and contractors losing their jobs, while the trade war triggered by widespread import tariffs is constantly escalating.

The aggressive policies implemented by the Trump administration have led to a sharp decline in business and consumer confidence, and increased the likelihood of an economic recession. Several airlines in the United States have lowered their profit forecasts, pointing out that businesses and consumers are cutting back on spending due to increased economic uncertainty.

There is no factory inflation or worrying layoffs, so there is currently nothing to slow down the economic development, "said Christopher Rupkey, Chief Analyst at FWDBONDS.

However, in the coming months, the impact of Washington's significant cuts in spending and personnel may eventually spread to other areas of the private economy, which has brought enough uncertainty to corporate CEOs and may hinder economic progress starting in the second quarter

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that the final demand PPI for February remained unchanged for the first time since July last year, with a revised upward reading of 0.6% in January. Economists previously predicted that the month on month increase in PPI in February would slow down from 0.4% before January to 0.3%. PPI increased by 3.2% year-on-year in February, compared to a 3.7% increase in January.

Like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Wednesday, there are some unfavorable details in the components used to calculate the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index in PPI. PCE is the inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve.

In February, commodity prices rose by 0.3%, with wholesale egg prices skyrocketing by 53.6%, accounting for two-thirds of the overall increase. Commodity prices increased by 0.6% in January. The rampant avian influenza has led to an increase in egg prices.

Energy prices fell by 1.2%. Excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, commodity prices rose by 0.4% in February, the largest increase in two years. The price of this core commodity increased by 0.2% in January. Economists say that companies are likely to raise prices before tariffs take effect.

Economists estimate that there is a high possibility that the core PCE will increase by 0.3% month on month in February, rounded to 0.4%. The month on month increase in January was 0.3%. It is expected that the core PCE will increase by 2.7% year-on-year in February, compared to a growth of 2.6% in January.

Another report released by the Ministry of Labor shows that as of the week ending March 8th, the number of initial jobless claims decreased by 2000, to 220000 after seasonal adjustment.

However, the risks in the labor market tend to decline. The Department of Efficiency (DOGE) led by tech billionaire Elon Musk has laid off thousands of federal government workers, most of whom are on probation.

According to data from the Federal Employee Unemployment Benefit (UCFE) program, the number of applicants decreased by 54 to 1580. This number has a one week lag period.

It is currently unclear how many federal employees are no longer receiving their salaries amidst the various struggles between efficiency departments, institutional downsizing, and courts, "said Andrew Stettner, a senior researcher at the Century Foundation. What we know... is that Trump's brutal way of cutting government personnel makes it difficult for laid-off federal employees to receive subsidies

The unemployment benefit report shows that during the week of March 1st, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits decreased by 27000, and after seasonal adjustment, it was 1.87 million. This is an indicator to measure the recruitment situation. (End)

It is worth mentioning that according to the data of the People's Bank of China, China continued to buy gold for the fourth consecutive month in February. This boosts the morale of the bulls.

The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR, saw its holdings increase by 7.17 tons on Thursday to 905.81 tons, reaching a new high since February 27th.

The initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for March in the United States will be released this trading day, and investors need to pay attention. According to previous media reports, US President Trump will have a phone call with Russian President Putin on Friday, and investors need to pay close attention.

Russian President Putin stated on Thursday that Russia supports in principle the US proposal for a ceasefire in the Ukrainian conflict, but any ceasefire must address the root causes of the conflict and clarify many key details.

After US President Trump overturned Ukraine's foreign policy and imposed tariffs, causing tension between Trump and US allies for seven weeks, foreign ministers from major Western democratic countries gathered in Canada on Thursday for a G7 meeting to seek a unified stance. The meeting will end on Friday, and investors also need to pay attention.