According to Luft, the key talks between the United States and Russia on the Black Sea ceasefire ended on Monday (March 24), and the two sides may issue a joint statement on Tuesday (March 25), releasing the first easing signal for the Russia-Ukraine conflict that has lasted for three years. This secret negotiation focused on a limited ceasefire is seen as a breakthrough for Washington to push for a larger peace process. Although the details have not been made public, the Trump administration's high-profile claim of "creative progress" has attracted high attention from the international community.

The undercurrents of diplomatic games are surging

In the closed door talks held in Saudi Arabia, the US sent an elite team consisting of White House National Security Council senior director Andrew Pick and State Department official Michael Anton, while the Russian side was led by former diplomat and current Federal Council Foreign Affairs Chairman Grigory Karasin. According to the International News Agency, the two sides discussed core issues including black sea aviation safety and energy facility protection in a "creative way". Although Kremlin spokesman Peskov previously denied the possibility of signing the document, Russian sources told Reuters that the draft joint statement has entered the final approval stage.

The ceasefire plan has broken through layer by layer

The focus of this negotiation revolves around Washington's proposal for a partial ceasefire in the Black Sea, aimed at restoring food and energy transportation channels. Although Russia rejected Trump's proposal for a 30 day comprehensive ceasefire last week, it has tacitly agreed to suspend attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. The White House emphasized that the core objective of the talks is to "safeguard freedom of navigation," while the Kremlin characterized it as "navigation safety negotiations," implying subtle differences in the outcome statements between the two sides. It is worth noting that Trump voluntarily disclosed sensitive issues such as territorial division and ownership of power facilities during the talks, demonstrating an unexpected breadth of negotiations.

The dawn of peace is beginning to emerge

With Trump praising Putin's positive attitude and expressing satisfaction with the progress, this meeting, which was seen as a "tentative contact" by the outside world, has opened a crack in the long-standing stalemate between Russia and Ukraine. Analysts point out that if the joint statement is released as scheduled on Tuesday, it may open a critical window for the transition from partial ceasefire to comprehensive peace talks. Despite fundamental differences between Moscow and Kiev, the first written consensus reached by high-level officials of the United States and Russia on the Black Sea crisis undoubtedly injects a shot in the arm into the turbulent global geopolitics.

Summary: Peaceful Opportunities in Cautious Optimism

Despite obvious differences, the United States and Russia have shown a willingness to resolve the conflict through diplomatic means. Trump expressed satisfaction with the progress of the negotiations and particularly appreciated Putin's attitude towards participation. If the joint statement is released as scheduled, it will mark a possible turning point in the three-year conflict in Ukraine. However, there is still a long way to go from a limited ceasefire to comprehensive peace, and subsequent negotiations will test the political wisdom and willingness to compromise of all parties. The international community is closely monitoring this diplomatic breakthrough that may rewrite the geopolitical landscape.

If the joint statement on Tuesday releases a positive signal, the market will be less worried about the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the attractiveness of gold as a traditional safe haven asset will decline, which may lead to short-term selling and a small fall in gold prices. If the ceasefire is limited to Black Sea shipping and land warfare continues, gold may still receive support due to uncertainty.