According to Refinitiv, the Russian central bank recently issued a heavy warning to the Kremlin: the United States and OPEC may join forces to inject large amounts of oil into the market, triggering a long-term low oil price cycle similar to the 1980s, and even repeating the economic crisis of the collapse of the Soviet Union. This warning comes at a time when Russia and the United States are negotiating on the Ukraine issue, and the Trump administration is threatening to increase sanctions and push for global production, putting the Russian economy under severe test.

Russian central bank confidential report: history may repeat itself

In a confidential presentation submitted to Prime Minister Mishustin in February, the Russian central bank emphasized with three exclamation marks that "after the high oil prices of 1974-1985, there was an 18 year (!!!) cycle of low oil prices," directly pointing to the current risks.

Special warning in the report: OPEC's idle production capacity has reached 5.3 million barrels per day (close to Russia's export volume), Saudi Arabia can increase production to 12 million barrels per day within a few months, and non OPEC countries such as the United States and Guyana are also accelerating production expansion.

Dual strangulation of politics and economy: Trump's' oil weapon '

Trump said before the Russia Ukraine negotiations that if the agreement fails, he will escalate sanctions and push for a significant increase in production in the United States and Saudi Arabia, aiming to lower oil prices and hit Russia's energy revenue.

The Russian budget is based on an oil price of $69.7 per barrel. Although the current level of $70 is safe, the strengthening of the ruble and rising costs have put pressure on the finances. Experts warn that the 2025 budget target may be difficult to achieve.

Market undercurrents surging: Will OPEC 'reverse course'?

Although there is currently no indication that OPEC will change its production reduction policy, historical experience suggests that allies may shift in the oil price game. In 1986, Saudi Arabia's sudden increase in production led to a sharp drop in oil prices, which became the trigger for the collapse of the Soviet economy.

The Russian Ministry of Economy has issued a synchronized warning: risks such as investor withdrawal and a surge in bad debts are accumulating, and low oil prices may become the last straw that breaks the camel's back.

Summary:

This' oil war 'has surpassed the market scope and become a key bargaining chip in the great power game. If the United States and Saudi Arabia join forces to open the production capacity gate, Russia may fall into a vicious cycle of "oil price decline ruble depreciation fiscal deficit". Although the current oil prices are still within a comfortable range, the Kremlin must be vigilant: in the battle for energy hegemony, history never repeats itself gently, but only cruelly repeats itself.