On Wednesday, international oil prices fluctuated narrowly, with Brent crude falling below $75 and WTI remaining above $71. The market generally reduced its exposure before Trump's tariff policy was announced, waiting for a final decision to be made.

The market has temporarily stepped on the brakes, and traders are reducing their risk exposure to cope with market volatility after policy announcements. "- Chris Weston, Research Director at Pepperstone Group

A White House spokesperson stated that Trump's tariff measures will be announced on Wednesday and will take immediate effect. At present, the government is considering various options, including setting fixed tax rates for different countries or adopting a more flexible 'equivalent' tariff system, but the final version is still uncertain.

The uncertainty in the market not only comes from tariff policies, but also from potential sanctions on Russian and Iranian supplies, as well as the impact of OPEC+production increases.

50 bipartisan senators in the US Congress have proposed a new round of sanctions bill, which would impose further sanctions on Russian crude oil buyers if Russian President Putin does not actively promote a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine or violates future agreements. As the world's third-largest oil producer, Russia's move may further tighten market supply.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration is still considering similar measures against Iran and threatening military action if Tehran does not make concessions on the nuclear issue.

However, at the same time, OPEC+has started to increase production this month, exacerbating market concerns about future oversupply. The organization has agreed to increase production by 135000 barrels per day in April and May respectively.

In addition to tariff policies, the market also needs to pay attention to the latest data on US crude oil inventories. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API) report, as of last week, US crude oil inventories increased by 6 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories also increased by 2.2 million barrels, marking the largest increase since January 2023. If official data confirms this trend, it may further suppress oil prices.

Editor's viewpoint:

The current market is in a game of multiple intertwined factors, and the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policies keeps traders cautious, while supply risks from Russia and Iran may provide some price support.

In addition, the increase in OPEC+production and unexpected growth in US crude oil inventories may exacerbate concerns about oversupply, and oil prices may remain volatile in the short term. In the coming days, the market will focus on the White House's final tariff plan, OPEC+'s follow-up decisions, and further changes in US energy inventories.