International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Georgieva issued a stern warning on Thursday, stating that the escalating global trade tensions will force the IMF to significantly lower its economic growth forecast. This rare warning sets the tone for next week's IMF and World Bank spring meetings, when global financial leaders will gather in Washington to discuss how to respond to market turbulence caused by Trump's tariff policies.

Deterioration of growth prospects: but recession has not yet arrived

Georgieva made it clear that although the IMF will significantly lower its growth forecast, the latest assessment still does not point to a global economic recession. In January of this year, the IMF predicted a global economic growth rate of 3.3% for both 2025 and 2026, which is a relatively optimistic outlook that is clearly outdated. She emphasized that 'chaos brings costs', implying that Trump's tariff policies are casting a shadow over global economic growth.

Trade System Restructuring: Severe Fluctuations in Financial Markets

The head of the IMF pointed out that the recent imposition of tariffs by the United States and countermeasures by various countries have led to fundamental changes in the global trading system. This uncertainty is causing a chain reaction in the financial market, and the abnormal fluctuation of the yield curve of the US treasury bond bonds is regarded as an important warning signal. If the financial situation worsens, no one will be spared, "Georgieva's statement highlighted the seriousness of the problem.

Polarization of Inflation Prospects: The Dual Effect of Protectionism

The IMF expects that tariff measures may have a mutually offsetting effect: on the one hand, they may push up prices for consumers and producers, while on the other hand, they may suppress spending and reduce inflationary pressures. This complex situation will lead to significant divergence in inflation trends among countries, posing new challenges for monetary policy makers.

Small country crisis: testing of multilateral system

Georgieva specifically warned that trade tensions could have a disproportionate impact on smaller economies. In the long run, protectionism will weaken productivity, especially for smaller economies, "she pointed out, noting that policies that protect industries will ultimately harm innovation and entrepreneurship. For this reason, she strongly calls on major economies to reach trade agreements that remain open and prevent the world from moving towards economic fragmentation.

Outlook and Suggestions

At a critical moment when the global economy is facing a turning point, the IMF report sends a clear signal: trade protectionism is casting a shadow over growth prospects, but the worst can still be avoided through international cooperation. For investors, they need to focus on three major risk points: increased volatility in US Treasury yields, pressure from emerging market capital outflows, and inflation risks brought about by global supply chain restructuring.

When growth concerns encounter policy uncertainty and real interest rates have not yet been suppressed, gold prices are still expected to continue to rise. The detailed forecast in next week's IMF report may become the next catalyst for gold bulls.