The US dollar is under dual pressure from trade policies and expectations of interest rate cuts

The US dollar against the Swiss franc continued its downward trend in early Thursday trading, currently trading below the 0.8300 level, with a decline of about 0.25%. The rebound in the previous two days did not continue, mainly due to market doubts about US President Trump's tariff policies and expectations that the Federal Reserve will accelerate its policy easing pace.

These two factors have led to a lack of sentiment towards the US dollar, causing the US dollar index (DXY) to remain at a low level in recent years, thereby suppressing the upward potential of the USD/CHF.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant stated on Wednesday that the current global trade uncertainty is difficult to resolve quickly in the short term, but is expected to ease in the medium to long term.

This statement has suppressed market expectations of a rapid improvement in the trade situation and indirectly increased bets on the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates to address the economic slowdown.

Slowing Swiss Franc Safe haven Demand Limits US Swiss Decline

Despite the weakening of the US dollar, the attractiveness of the Swiss franc as a traditional safe haven currency is also affected by the global stock market recovery. The market sentiment tends to be optimistic, reducing the safe haven demand for the Swiss franc, which to some extent limits the downward space of the USD/CHF.

Short term monitoring of US data and progress in trade negotiations

The market will closely monitor the upcoming release of initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, and existing home sales data in the United States. If these economic indicators show further weakness or strengthen market expectations of a Fed rate cut, it will put additional pressure on the US dollar. Meanwhile, the progress of the Trump administration's tariff policies towards Asian countries will continue to dominate the short-term trend of the US dollar.

Editor's viewpoint:

Against the backdrop of sustained pressure on the US dollar index and unclear policy prospects, the trend of the US dollar against the Swiss franc lacks sustained momentum. Although the rise in risk appetite weakens the attractiveness of the Swiss franc, the potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the risks of Trump's policies together constitute the main axis of market uncertainty.

If the US economic data continues to weaken, the US dollar may fall below the 0.8250 regional support level against the Swiss franc. Pay attention to the upcoming economic data and trade negotiation news, short-term fluctuations may intensify.