On Friday morning trading, Brent crude oil rose 5 cents to $66.60 per barrel, but still fell 2% for the week. WTI crude oil rose 6 cents to $62.85 per barrel, with a cumulative decline of 2.9% this week.

According to market research, representatives from several OPEC+member countries proposed this week that the alliance accelerate the recovery of crude oil production in June, marking the second consecutive month that this issue has been raised. This news has prompted the market to reassess the balance of crude oil supply and demand.

At the same time, the Russia-Ukraine conflict may usher in a turnaround. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated in an interview with US media that Russia and the United States are "moving in the right direction" in ending the conflict in Ukraine, but there are still key issues that need to be resolved.

Once the conflict stops and sanctions against Russia are lifted, more Russian crude oil will be released back into the international market.

If the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is accompanied by the easing of sanctions, Russia may resume exports of up to one million barrels per day, putting downward pressure on the global oil market. "- Rystad Energy analyst

The progress of Iran's nuclear negotiations has attracted attention, and it may return to the crude oil export market

On the other important variable in the supply side - Iran, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi said on Thursday that he is ready to go to Europe to restart nuclear negotiations with the United States. This has triggered market expectations for the restart of Iranian crude oil exports, which in turn has suppressed oil prices.

Iran is the third largest oil producing country in OPEC, and if an agreement is reached, its export capacity is expected to quickly recover to over 1.5 million barrels per day within a few months.

Continued trade concerns and weak demand outlook

The trade friction between the two major oil consuming countries in the world - Asian countries and the United States - has not yet eased, becoming a key factor suppressing the prospects of crude oil demand. American companies are continuously raising product prices to cope with tariff shocks, while reducing future profit expectations.

According to market research, multiple multinational companies have warned that their production activities will face challenges and investment decisions will tend to be cautious due to high costs and supply chain disruptions.

Trade concerns pose pressure on corporate spending and consumer confidence, and will gradually spread to global oil demand. "- Goldman Sachs Commodity Research Team

Editor's viewpoint:

The oil price is currently at a critical turning point of 'strong supply and weak demand'. one side, OPEC+、 The potential return of supply from Russia and Iran poses triple pressure, breaking the market's previous expectation of "limited supply supporting oil prices".

On the other hand, unresolved trade frictions and signals of slowing economic growth in the US and Europe are gradually increasing, putting pressure on crude oil demand. In the short term, oil prices may maintain a volatile and weak pattern, and we need to focus on the progress of the Iran nuclear negotiations and whether the OPEC+June meeting will formally propose a production increase plan.