At the recently concluded IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings, financial leaders from around the globe converged on Washington with the same urgent question: How to defuse the tariff offensive launched by the Trump administration? And where will this trade storm drag the global economy? However, after a week of intensive consultations, the answers remain shrouded in mystery.

Tariff Deadlock Shows No Breakthrough‌

Delegates from various countries have found that the demands made by the US government on countries affected by tariffs still contain fundamental contradictions. Although the Trump administration announced that it had received 18 written proposals, the Polish Finance Minister bluntly stated, "This is not negotiation at all; it is merely a discussion of economic issues." Although Japan and South Korea held the most substantive talks, they only received a vague evaluation of being "productive," and exchange rate policy has become a sword of Damocles hanging over their heads.

‌Recession Clouds Loom‌

While the IMF has maintained a "cautiously optimistic" tone, it has downgraded growth forecasts for many countries without predicting a recession. However, exclusive information obtained by Reuters reveals that private assessments by fiscal officials from multiple countries have put the probability of a recession at over 37%. World Bank Chief Economist Jim Yong Kim has warned that a "perfect storm" is forming, consisting of debt crises in emerging markets and a simultaneous decline in trade and investment.

‌Crisis of Trust Intensifies‌

Former IMF Advisor Lipsky pointed out that the selling-off of US Treasuries exposes a deep crisis: global trust in the dollar system is collapsing. Although US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has expressed support for international financial institutions, his advocacy for halting loans to China and other proposals has instead exacerbated concerns about the "America First" policy among all parties.

‌Warnings of Underlying Crises‌

Debt Risk: The nonprofit organization Jubilee USA has revealed that discussions on the debt crisis have been marginalized by tariff issues.Institutional Positioning: The IMF and the World Bank are facing questions about "mission drift," as climate and gender issues conflict with their core economic functions.Leadership Vacuum: The United States is unwilling to relinquish its dominance over the international financial order while continuing to pursue unilateralist policies.

‌Summary‌

As finance ministers leave Washington with more questions than answers, a harsh reality has become clear: the three pillars of the global economy—the trading system, debt sustainability, and the credibility of the US dollar—are simultaneously undergoing unprecedented stress tests. As experts at the meeting have said, "Everyone is worried that things will get worse." Perhaps the greatest legacy left by this meeting is that the world can hear the footsteps of the approaching crisis earlier.