The global foreign exchange market is entering a crucial week! The US Dollar Index traded steadily near 99.74 during the Asian session on Monday (April 28), but this does little to mask its recent weakness—the US dollar has plunged by over 4% against the euro and the yen since April, potentially setting up for its worst monthly performance in two and a half years. Investors are bracing themselves for adense release of several heavy-hitting economic data this week, which may reveal for the first time the "self-inflicted" effects of Trump's trade war.

Trade Clouds Loom Over Dollar Outlook

Despite signs of easing tensions among major powers over the weekend, the signals of tariff adjustments released by the Trump administration and China's stance still show significant disagreements, with market uncertainty continuing to escalate. The US dollar oscillated narrowly near 143.77 against the yen, while the euro dipped slightly by 0.1% to around 1.1344 against the dollar. Chris Turner, head of global markets at ING, pointed out, "The key is to see whether these fluctuations will affect real-economy decision-making, especially the US job market."

‌Super Data Week Looms Large‌

The most noteworthy event this Friday is the US non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to show a significant slowdown in hiring. Additionally, the US first-quarter GDP, core PCE price index, as well as European GDP and inflation data will be released successively. Australia's inflation data on Wednesday is also crucial, although markets generally expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates next month. The Australian dollar is under pressure at the 0.64 level, while the New Zealand dollar is under pressure at the psychological 0.60 level.

‌Global Political and Economic Undercurrents‌

Canada holds general elections on Monday, with the ruling Liberal Party narrowly leading in polls. The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, and while maintaining the interest rate unchanged is almost a certainty, markets are more focused on its response to possible exchange rate issues involved in US-Japan trade negotiations. Japan's Finance Minister Jun Azumi urgently clarified media reports that the US Treasury Secretary welcomes a stronger yen, highlighting the sensitivity of exchange rate issues.

‌Summary‌

In this volatile super week, the release of each economic data point could serve as a trigger for market explosions. Can the dollar halt its decline? Will the "self-inflicted" effects of the trade war emerge? How will global central banks respond? Investors need to buckle up and prepare for possible market turbulence. Special reminder: Market volatility may significantly intensify around the release of Friday's non-farm payrolls data, and traders must prioritize risk management.