During Tuesday's Asian morning trading, crude oil prices experienced a decline. Due to the continued escalation of global trade concerns, investors' expectations for the growth of global crude oil demand have been significantly lowered.

Brent crude oil futures fell 25 cents, or 0.4%, to $65.61 per barrel; The futures price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil in the United States fell 18 cents, or 0.3%, to $61.87 per barrel. It is worth noting that both major oil price benchmarks fell more than $1 on Monday.

According to market research, most economists believe that "the US President's policy of imposing tariffs on all imported goods greatly increases the risk of the global economy falling into recession this year

In this context, Asian countries have also taken countermeasures by imposing tariffs on US imports, leading to further deterioration of trade relations between the world's two major crude oil consuming countries. This situation has prompted multiple institutions to lower their expectations for crude oil demand growth and prices.

Among them, Barclays lowered its 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast by $4 to $70 per barrel on Monday, and pointed out that escalating trade tensions and OPEC+alliance adjustments to production strategies will result in a daily surplus of 1 million barrels of global crude oil supply this year.

At the same time, according to sources, multiple member countries of OPEC+plan to propose a proposal in June to accelerate production for the second consecutive month. Oil market analyst Philip Verleger pointed out in a report that "if exporting countries increase production, a significant decline in oil prices will become more likely

In addition, according to preliminary investigations, US crude oil inventories may increase by about 500000 barrels in the week ending April 15th. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release preliminary inventory data on Tuesday, while the official Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release final data on Wednesday.

From the daily trend, WTI crude oil has fallen from around $65 and has now fallen below the important support level of $62, indicating an overall bearish trend. In the short term, the 5-day and 10 day moving averages form a dead cross and continue to suppress the downward trend of oil prices. The 20 day moving average turns downwards, indicating a weak pattern in the medium term.

In terms of technical indicators, RSI (14) is around 40, in a weak area, but has not entered extreme oversold, indicating that there is still further downward space for oil prices; The MACD indicator's green bar momentum continues to amplify, and the dual line shows a downward divergence state, strengthening the bearish dominance situation.

At present, the important support level below WTI is looking towards the $60 level. If it falls below, it will further open up the downside space to around $58.5, while the preliminary pressure level above is at $62.5. Overall, WTI is running weakly in the short term, with limited rebound. Without significant positive stimuli, oil prices are likely to continue their volatile downward trend.

Editor's comment:

The global crude oil market is facing a double blow. On the one hand, trade concerns are suppressing demand growth, and on the other hand, the supply side is expected to accelerate its growth. The two-way pressure is causing significant pressure on oil prices in the short term. In conjunction with WTI's daily technical analysis, there is a risk that oil prices will continue to test support levels of $60 or even lower in the short term.

The future trend needs to focus on changes in US inventory and OPEC+actual production increases.