The global trade war has taken a dramatic turn! US President Trump suddenly signed an executive order on Tuesday, announcing up to 15% tariff deductions for car manufacturers to alleviate the impact of his car tariff policy. Even more surprisingly, US Secretary of Commerce Lutnik revealed that a secret trade agreement had been reached with a certain country, which immediately triggered a strong market reaction. The S&P 500 index rose 0.6% in response, setting a record for the longest consecutive increase since November last year.

Policy Reversal: From Hardship to Compromise

The Trump administration unexpectedly adjusted its tough tariff stance, agreeing to provide automakers with a 15% tariff deduction on the total value of domestically assembled vehicles. This policy shift aims to buy time for car manufacturers to gradually shift their supply chains back to the United States. When Trump went to the automotive industry hub of Michigan, he said, "We just want to help them... if they can't get parts, we don't want to punish them." This statement is in stark contrast to his previous tough trade stance.

Industry reaction: breathed a sigh of relief but still worried

Although the new policies have brought some relief, the automotive industry still maintains a cautious attitude. Autos Drive America, representing 12 foreign car manufacturers including Toyota and Volkswagen, said that this "does alleviate some pressure, but more measures are needed". The industry's unease is particularly evident in General Motors - while announcing strong quarterly results, the company unusually lowered its annual financial forecast and postponed its analyst conference call, apparently waiting for further clarification of tariff details.

Secret Agreement: A Breakthrough in the Trade War?

What is even more noteworthy is that US Commerce Secretary Lutnik revealed to CNBC that a trade agreement with a certain country has been reached that could permanently alleviate "equivalent" tariffs. Although refusing to disclose specific countries on the grounds of "awaiting approval from the other country", this news undoubtedly brings a glimmer of hope to the ongoing tense global trade situation. Lutnik confidently stated, 'I have reached an agreement...' implying that this may just be the beginning of a series of trade agreements.

Corporate dilemma: The shadow of tariffs continues to cover

Despite signs of easing policies, the negative impact of tariffs continues to ferment. UPS announced that it will lay off 20000 employees to cope with cost pressures, and multinational companies such as Kraft Heinz and Electrolux have also mentioned the adverse effects of tariffs in their financial reports. Data shows that in the first two weeks of this earnings season, about 40 companies worldwide have withdrawn or lowered their financial forecasts. The exclamation of the CEO of Electrolux reflects the widespread anxiety in the business world: "Every prediction turns out to be wrong... I would be surprised if anyone claimed to have an opinion on the direction of tariffs

conclusion

Is the Trump administration's policy adjustment a strategic concession in the trade war or a tactical adjustment to buy time for bigger actions? With the gradual disclosure of details of secret trade agreements and further clarification on how car manufacturers can use tariff deduction policies, the global trade situation may usher in a new turning point. But what can be certain is that under Trump's unpredictable governing style, the business community may still have to endure the bumpy journey of this "policy roller coaster".

After signs of softening in Trump's tariff policies, gold, as a safe haven asset, immediately faced selling pressure. The rebound in market risk appetite has led to capital outflows from the gold market and a shift towards risky assets. This emotional shift is particularly evident against the backdrop of six consecutive gains in the US stock market and the strengthening of the US dollar, and gold prices may continue to face downward pressure in the short term. However, the uncertainty of Trump's trade policies, the actual extent of damage to businesses, and the inflationary pressure brought about by supply chain restructuring will continue to support the safe haven demand for gold in the medium term. The pullback in gold prices actually provides investors with better entry opportunities.