On Wednesday (April 30th) during the Asian session, gold prices fell into a fifth day of sideways volatility, with the slight strengthening of the US dollar failing to break through the upward support of the gold price. The market is holding its breath and waiting for tonight's US first quarter GDP data. This "economic examination" may determine whether gold can return to its skyrocketing mode!

GDP data becomes a 'nuclear bomb grade' catalyst, two major scenario simulations

The US first quarter GDP data released tonight will be a key turning point in the gold trend. The market generally expects a significant slowdown in economic growth to 0.4%, far lower than the previous quarter's 2.4%, and Goldman Sachs even predicts a possible negative growth of 0.2%. If the data confirms an economic contraction, market expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will quickly rise, the US dollar may experience a sell-off, and gold is expected to hit a historical high of $3500. On the contrary, if the economic performance is better than expected, the US dollar may strengthen in the short term, and gold prices may face downward pressure. However, considering the upcoming release of non farm payroll data on Friday, market trading may remain cautious, and the downward space for gold prices may be limited.

There are hidden mysteries in the technical aspect, and the key position attack and defense battle has begun

Since the beginning of this week, the gold price has remained at the support level of the three week upward channel and is currently testing the lower edge of the channel. On the 14th, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained above the median line, providing a downward buffer for gold prices.

To confirm the downward trend of the upward channel, the daily gold price needs to close below the support level of $3351 on the uptrend line. The next support level is at the integer level of $3300, and if it falls, it will test the demand area of $3260. If it continues to fall below this level, it may lower to the 21 day moving average of $3224, and then test the 50 day moving average of $3075.

On the contrary, if the bulls can maintain a stable position at $3351 (the original support turned resistance level), they are expected to restart the upward trend and challenge the static resistance level of $3370. The sustained rebound will target $3400 and is expected to reach a historical high of $3500 again.

Gold welcomes' super 48 hours', traders must pay attention to these two signals

Tonight's GDP data and core PCE price index are just the prelude to the market storm, Friday's non farm payroll data is the real highlight. In addition, the news of the Trump administration delaying car tariffs and the progress of the US Asia trade negotiations may also have a significant impact on market sentiment. Gold is currently in a calm state before a storm, with $3351 becoming the "lifeline" for long and short positions. For investors, a prudent strategy is to wait for clear breakthrough signals before following up, in order to avoid falling into passivity during intense volatility.