As of 15:45 Beijing time on Monday (September 2), the international spot gold price was reported at $2497.27 per ounce, a decrease of 0.24% from the previous trading day. The New York gold continuous contract recorded a 0.4% increase to $2528.6. The performance of the gold market at the beginning of this week can be said to have been significantly affected by the strengthening of the US dollar. The US dollar index hit a nearly two-week high, reducing the attractiveness of gold denominated in US dollars to holders of other currencies, leading to downward pressure on gold prices.

This week, the market's focus is on the upcoming release of US non farm payroll data. This data will have a significant impact on the interest rate decision at the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on September 17-18. Currently, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate cut cycle at this meeting, with a 69% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 31% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut.

Renowned institutional analyst Yeap Jun Rong stated that due to the upcoming release of US non farm payroll data, gold prices may remain within the recent range of volatility this week. Investors are waiting for this crucial data to determine the magnitude of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. If the non farm employment data performs strongly, the market's expectation of a 50 basis point interest rate cut will further decrease, and gold prices may come under pressure. On the contrary, if the data falls short of expectations, the probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut will increase, which may provide support for gold prices.

At the same time, a series of important economic data will be released this week, including the ISM survey, JOLTS job vacancies, ADP employment data, and the Federal Reserve's brown book report, which will provide more clues for the market to judge the direction of the Federal Reserve's policies.

From a fundamental perspective, although the recent strong economic data in the United States, especially the steady growth of consumer spending in July, has weakened market expectations of a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, overall, the market remains cautiously optimistic about the future interest rate environment. A lower interest rate environment is usually favorable for non yielding gold, therefore, gold prices may still be supported in the near future.

Technically speaking, spot gold prices are currently approaching the key support level of 2483.40. Analysts pointed out that the price of gold clearly fell after opening today, showing signs of breaking below this support level. If it is confirmed to fall below this level within the day, the gold price may further drop to the 2440.00 area. The negative pressure formed by the 50 day moving average (EMA50) is further suppressing the rebound space of gold prices. However, if the gold price rebounds and breaks through 2506.00, it may temporarily halt the current downward trend and push prices back up.

Although the bottoming out rebound of the US dollar may increase the risk of a pullback in gold and silver in the short term, geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts remain the core logic for long-term optimism about gold.

Market Expectations and Prospects

Looking ahead to this week, the gold market will continue to be influenced by the trend of the US dollar and expectations of Federal Reserve policies. Although there have been significant fluctuations in gold prices recently, overall market sentiment remains cautious. Investors need to closely monitor the upcoming non farm payroll data, which will provide important decision-making basis for the Federal Reserve's September meeting.

According to the latest market expectations, the non farm employment data for August will increase by 165000 jobs, and the unemployment rate will drop to 4.2%. If the data meets or exceeds expectations, the market's expectation of a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve will cool down, and gold prices may continue to be under pressure. On the contrary, if the data falls short of expectations, especially if the unemployment rate rises to 4.4% or higher, the market will reassess the economic outlook and may push the Federal Reserve to take even greater interest rate cuts, which will support gold prices.

Overall, the gold market will face significant uncertainty this week. Investors should closely monitor market trends and adjust their positions reasonably to cope with potential price fluctuations. Especially in the current context of a strong US dollar, the short-term trend of gold prices may be more complex, and investors need to remain highly vigilant.