A survey of refining industry sources on Monday showed that deteriorating refining profit margins in Asia and a weakening of Dubai benchmark prices may prompt Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, to lower its Asian crude oil loading prices in October.

According to a survey of five refining sources, it is expected that Saudi Aramco, the world's largest crude oil exporter, will lower its official Asian selling prices (OSP) for all grades of crude oil in October. Three sources predict that the price of Saudi Arabia's flagship Arab light crude oil will be $0.50-0.70 per barrel lower than the September price. If the price is reduced by $0.70 per barrel, the cost for Asian refineries will be $2.00 per barrel higher than the average level in Oman/Dubai.

The average price of Oman/Dubai is the pricing benchmark for Middle Eastern crude oil exports to Asia.

Refiners surveyed stated that the expected decline in Arab light and heavier grade oil prices may follow the trend of Dubai's oil price softening in August.

However, other refiners expect that due to the strengthening of Dubai oil prices in the last week of the August trading window, Saudi crude oil prices in Asia will remain unchanged or change little in October.

Saudi Arabia usually releases its OSP for the following month around the 5th of each month, but does not comment on pricing.

Refiners surveyed have indicated that in addition to the benchmark trend in Dubai, Saudi Arabia's OSP next month may be affected by weak refining profit margins in Asia.

Overall, refineries expect slight changes in Saudi crude oil prices in Asia, but are expected to be lower than September prices.

Last month, Saudi Aramco raised the price of light crude oil for Asian customers for the first time in three months.

Considering OPEC+'s suggestion that partial production cuts may be relaxed starting in October, global supply from Saudi Arabia and the Middle East may be abundant in October.