On Wednesday (September 4th), in the morning session of the Asian market, US crude oil briefly fell below the 70 integer mark, hitting a new low since January 3rd at $69.98 per barrel. Oil prices fell nearly 5% on Tuesday, hitting their lowest level in nearly nine months, as there were signs that an agreement would be reached to resolve the dispute over Libyan crude oil production and export disruptions.

Brent crude oil futures closed down $3.77, or 4.9%, at $73.75 per barrel, the lowest level since December 12th. US crude oil futures fell $3.21, or 4.4%, to close at $70.34, the lowest level since December. Monday is the US Labor Day holiday and US crude oil has not been settled.

Brent crude oil closed down 0.3% last week, while US crude oil closed down 1.7%.

The statement signed by representatives of the Libyan legislative body on Tuesday shows that these institutions have agreed to appoint a new central bank governor within 30 days after the UN led talks.

Six engineers stated that oil exports from Libya's major ports were halted on Monday, as the standoff between the country's opposing political factions over the central bank and control of oil revenues continues.

The governor of the Libyan central bank said on Tuesday that he was ready to return from Türkiye to regain control of the Libyan central bank. The Governor of the Libyan Central Bank believes that an agreement will soon be reached to restore oil supply.

Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen stated that speculation about reaching an agreement has sparked selling.

Before news of more Libyan supply possibly returning to the market emerged, oil prices had already fallen and it was believed that weak economic growth in the world's largest crude oil importing country would lead to reduced demand.

On Monday, major Asian countries announced that new export orders for July had decreased for the first time in eight months, and the price increase for new homes in August was the smallest this year.

US gasoline futures plummeted nearly 6%, hitting their lowest level since December 2021, as the end of the summer driving season dragged down demand for automotive fuel.

In addition, the poor performance of the US manufacturing PMI data in August and the sharp decline in the US stock market have also dragged down oil prices. Goldman Sachs points out that artificial intelligence may drag down oil prices in the next decade by boosting oil supply.

It should be noted that due to the US holiday on Monday, the API crude oil inventory data originally scheduled to be released every Wednesday morning Beijing time will be delayed until early Thursday morning this week, and the US EIA crude oil inventory data originally scheduled to be released every Wednesday will be delayed until midnight on Friday this week.

On this trading day, job vacancies for July JOLTs in the United States, monthly factory order rates for July, the Federal Reserve's release of the economic status brown book, and the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision will be announced. Investors need to pay attention, and in addition, investors still need to pay attention to news related to the geopolitical situation.

The manufacturing industry in the United States remained in a contraction zone in August, and construction spending decreased in July

The contraction of the manufacturing industry in the United States slowed down in August. Although employment has improved, further reduction in new orders and increase in inventory indicate that factory activity may remain sluggish for some time.

The survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Tuesday also showed that US manufacturing input prices continued to rise in August, which did not change the expectation that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month to initiate the long-awaited easing cycle.

The input price pressure has slightly increased, reaching its highest level in three months, but according to our judgment, it is not yet high enough to threaten the sustained slow decline of inflation, "said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital." There is no obstacle to the September rate cut, but there is also a lack of reason to prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points

ISM reported that the manufacturing PMI rose to 47.2 in August, compared to 46.8 in July, which is the lowest since November. A PMI below 50 indicates a contraction in the manufacturing industry, which accounts for 10.3% of the total economy.

The PMI has been below the 50 boom bust line for the fifth consecutive month, but still above the level of 42.5. ISM stated that a sustained PMI above 42.5 for a period of time indicates overall economic expansion.

The forward-looking new orders sub index of ISM survey decreased from 47.4 in July to 44.6 last month.

Output further declined, with the production sub index dropping from 45.9 in July to 44.8, the lowest level since May 2020. ISM stated that the low output level has put additional pressure on profitability.

Despite weak demand, manufacturers still face the problem of rising input prices, which may reflect soaring shipping costs.

The survey shows that the input price index has risen from 52.9 in July to 54.0, reflecting the eighth consecutive month of rising raw material prices and reversing the trend of eight consecutive months of decline.

This indicates that the downward trend of commodity inflation may have ended, but it may not have a substantial impact on the inflation rate. After two consecutive months of decline, commodity prices remained unchanged in July.

The supplier delivery index decreased from 52.6 last month to 50.5. Exceeding 50 indicates a slowdown in delivery speed.

Factory employment is shrinking, but at a slower pace. The manufacturing employment index rose from 43.4 in July to 46.0. ISM stated that companies continue to reduce their workforce through layoffs, natural attrition, and hiring freezes.

The second report released by the US Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday showed that construction spending in July fell 0.3% month on month after remaining flat in June, as rising mortgage rates and increased supply dragged down single family home construction. Construction expenses increased by 6.7% year-on-year in July.

The construction of single family residential properties in July fell to the lowest level in 16 months, and inventory levels were close to the level at the beginning of 2008.

The US stock market experienced its largest single day percentage decline since early August, affected by traditional stock market performance and data concerns in September

The US stock market started September with a sharp drop on Tuesday, which is often the worst month for stock market performance in history; The upcoming data may affect the magnitude of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.

The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all recorded their largest daily percentage declines since early August. Nine out of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 index fell, with the technology, energy, communication services, and materials sectors experiencing the largest decline.

The data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Tuesday showed that although the US manufacturing industry slightly improved from the eight month low in July in August, it still performed poorly and market sentiment weakened as a result.

According to Jason Browne, President of Alexis Investment Partners, September is widely considered one of the worst performing months for the stock market based on data since the 1950s.

Browne said, "The ISM report released this morning showed a weak performance, but we do believe that seasonality is an important factor, especially considering the robust stock market performance as of the end of last month. Everyone is saying how bad September was, and this often makes the situation worse

The so-called "seven giants" that led the stock market to rise this year have all experienced declines. Nvidia fell nearly 10%, with a market value shrinking by $279 billion and closing at $2.65 trillion.

Alphabet fell 3.6%, Apple fell 2.7%, and Microsoft fell 1.8%. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index fell 7.8%.

On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 626.15 points, or 1.51%, to 40936.93 points; The S&P 500 fell 119.47 points, or 2.12%, to 5528.93 points; The Nasdaq index fell 577.33 points, or 3.26%, to 17136.30 points.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a Wall Street panic index that measures market expectations of stock market volatility, surged 33.2% to 20.72, marking the largest single day percentage increase and highest closing level since early August.

Traders are waiting for several labor market reports, including the August non farm payroll report to be released on Friday.

The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve meeting on September 17-18, and recently Federal Reserve Chairman Powell expressed support for easing monetary policy.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market expects a 61% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 39% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut.

Boeing fell sharply by 7.3% after Wells Fargo downgraded the stock rating of the aircraft manufacturer from "performing in line with peers" to "underperforming peers".

Goldman Sachs claims that artificial intelligence may drag down oil prices in the next decade by boosting oil supply

Goldman Sachs stated on Tuesday that artificial intelligence may ultimately drag down oil prices by boosting oil supply in the next decade.

Goldman Sachs believes that artificial intelligence has the potential to reduce the cost of developing new shale oil wells by about 30%, which will drive marginal incentive prices down by about $5 per barrel. The bank also stated, "Assuming that under the catalysis of artificial intelligence, the current extremely low recovery rate of shale oil in the United States will jump by 10-20%, which will drive an increase of 8-20% in oil reserves (10-30 billion barrels)

We estimate that in the next 10 years, artificial intelligence may provide a slight boost of 700000 barrels per day to oil demand by increasing revenue, "Goldman Sachs said." Compared to the impact of artificial intelligence on electricity and natural gas demand, its impact on oil demand is relatively small“

Goldman Sachs also stated that "compared to the negative impact of the decline in electric vehicle and natural gas prices on oil demand over the next 10 years, it is expected that both will lead to a decrease of 8 million barrels per day and 2 million barrels per day in oil demand, respectively, with the impact of artificial intelligence being relatively small

Russian missile hits Ukrainian military academy, causing at least 50 deaths

Russia launched two ballistic missiles on Tuesday, hitting a military academy in the central Ukrainian town of Poltava, resulting in at least 50 deaths and 271 injuries. This is the deadliest attack in the Russia Ukraine conflict this year.

Photos posted on social media show the bodies of several young men on the ground, covered in dust and debris, with a severely damaged building behind them. Reuters cannot immediately verify the authenticity of these images.

Ukrainian President Zelensky said on the instant messaging app Telegram, "Russian scum is undoubtedly responsible for this attack." He ordered an immediate investigation and claimed that the attack damaged a building at the Military Communication Academy.

In the evening video speech, Zelensky stated that the death toll was 51. As is well known, there are still people under the ruins of destroyed buildings, "he said." We are making every effort to save as many lives as possible

The death toll given by the emergency rescue department is 50 people. Filip Pronin, the governor of Poltava region, said that there may still be 15 people buried under the ruins.

The Ukrainian army stated that military personnel have lost their lives. They did not specify how many of the victims were from the military, but this attack is a heavy blow to Kiev as they are trying to strengthen their army to resist stronger enemies.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the use of ballistic missiles means that after the air raid siren sounds, victims have almost no time to find cover. Ballistic missiles can hit targets hundreds of kilometers away within minutes of launch.

Defense Ministry spokesperson Dmytro Lazutkin told national television that the academy was in class at the time of the attack. He said, "A few minutes after the airborne alarm was sounded, there was an explosion

Zelensky once again called on the West to strengthen Ukraine's air defense capabilities and urged allies to allow it to use long-range weapons for deeper strikes on Russian territory.

US officials have stated that the US is close to reaching an agreement to provide Ukraine with long-range cruise missiles capable of penetrating deep into Russia, but Kiev may have to wait for several months as the US needs to address any technical issues before delivery.