On Wednesday, September 11th at 9:00 Beijing time, US presidential candidates Harris and Trump will have a debate. TradingView reported that both sides are expected to criticize each other on issues such as economic performance, breach of commitments, and policy failures, with both sides demanding that the other take responsibility for various challenges.

Polls show Trump narrowly leading Harris

The polls show that the support rates of both sides are evenly matched, and this debate may shift the balance towards one side or the other. Trump ran for office with a narrow margin, partly due to his solid public speaking skills. On the other hand, Harris' goal may be to make Trump feel emotionally uneasy - a strategy that, if successful, could replicate the situation in 2020 when initial expectations of Trump's victory were overturned by the final outcome.

On September 8th, it was reported that a new national poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College showed that Republican candidate Trump's approval rating was one percentage point ahead of Vice President Harris.

A survey of 1695 registered voters conducted from September 3rd to 6th showed that Trump's approval rating was 48%, Harris's was 47%, with an error margin of within 3 percentage points. According to a poll, 56% of registered voters believe that Trump will handle economic issues better, while 51% of voters believe that the current economic situation is very poor. The survey found that 28% of potential voters feel it is necessary to learn more about Harris. Democrats have a slight advantage in terms of voting enthusiasm, with 91% of respondents stating that they are enthusiastic about voting, compared to 85% of Republicans.

Possible market reactions

As for who is elected to be more advantageous for the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq index, it is still difficult to say. Both sides have the best economic plans and warn that a victory for the opposition party could lead to economic instability.

In fact, no matter who takes over the White House, the market has its own rules. What drives them is the broader economic situation and global geopolitical situation, neither of which looks too good.

The latest data shows that there were 7.673 million job vacancies for JOLTs in the United States in July, the lowest level since January 2021, which has once again raised concerns about a possible "hard landing" for the US economy. These concerns led to the Nasdaq index experiencing its largest weekly decline since January 2022, with a drop of over 5% in the first week of September. The S&P 500 index and Dow Jones index also suffered significant losses.

As for the second factor affecting the market, although concerns about major conflicts in the Middle East have eased, it has not completely disappeared and remains a potential threat.

If Trump gets a second term, it may significantly change the current geopolitical landscape and focus more on Asia.

Harris is relatively conservative in this regard, but some of her economic policies may still raise market concerns. For example, the proposal to raise the corporate tax rate to 28% may result in a 5% reduction in corporate profits. This, in turn, may reduce the scale of future repurchases, which could potentially affect the S&P 500 index.

Previously, it was reported that Ben Lucock, the global head of oil at Trafigura, stated at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) that if Trump becomes the President of the United States, the global oil market may become more volatile due to concerns about US foreign policy. Lucock said that it is well known that Trump does not like Iran.

He said that the weak oil demand in major Asian countries is causing concern in the market. Some market participants believe that Asian powers may have retained more stimulus plans, depending on the outcome of the US election.

Daily chart of S&P 500 index