At the beginning of the Asian market on Tuesday (August 28th), international oil prices fluctuated narrowly, with US crude oil trading around $68.75 per barrel. Oil prices rose about 1% on Monday due to market concerns that the hurricane expected to hit Louisiana on Wednesday will disrupt oil production and refining along the US Gulf Coast.

Brent crude oil futures rose 78 cents, or 1.1%, on Monday to close at $71.84 per barrel; US crude oil rose $1.04, or 1.5%, on Monday to close at $68.71.

Last Friday, Brent crude oil and US diesel futures both closed at their lowest levels since December 2021. US crude oil closed at its lowest level since June 2023, while US gasoline futures RBc1 closed at its lowest level since February 2021.

In the United States, oil and gas producers along the Gulf Coast have begun evacuating employees and reducing drilling in preparation for Tropical Storm Francine to ravage the Gulf of Mexico.

The National Hurricane Center predicts that Hurricane Francine will strengthen into a hurricane on Tuesday and then hit the Louisiana coast. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the refining capacity along the Gulf Coast of Mexico accounts for approximately 50% of the country's refining capacity.

PVM analyst John Evans said, "Prices are recovering slightly... encouraged by hurricane warnings that could threaten the US Gulf Coast, but the broader topic is still where demand will come from and what OPEC+can do

ANZ analysts cited NHC data in a report saying, "At least 125000 barrels per day of oil production capacity is at risk of interruption

In OPEC member Libya, the national oil company announced force majeure on several batches of crude oil cargo loaded from the Es Sider port, as the country's oil production was restricted due to political confrontations over central bank and oil revenue issues.

The OPEC+alliance of oil producing countries has agreed to postpone the plan to increase daily production by 180000 barrels in October for two months due to the sharp drop in crude oil prices.

Morgan Stanley lowered its Brent crude oil price forecast for the next few quarters on Monday and stated that the global oil market is facing a period of weak demand similar to an economic recession.

Morgan Stanley stated that the increase in fuel inventories, decrease in refining profits, and the price difference between current and future prices all correspond to previous periods of recession or other periods of weak demand.

The bank pointed out that after summer, seasonal demand usually weakens, and supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non OPEC countries may accelerate again in the fourth quarter and 2025, leading to changes in the supply-demand balance.

Morgan Stanley predicts that the oil market will remain tight in the third quarter, and will be closer to equilibrium in the fourth quarter, with a surplus of about 1 million barrels per day by 2025.

Morgan Stanley has lowered its Brent oil price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2024 by $5 per barrel to $75 per barrel. Previously, the bank predicted that Brent oil prices would average $78 in the first quarter of 2025, steadily decline throughout the year, and drop to $75 in the fourth quarter of next year.

The bank believes that by the fourth quarter of 2025, the price of US crude oil will be around $70 per barrel.

Although the increase in OPEC production is a key factor in our forecast of oversupply in 2025, it is difficult to say that this is the reason for the recent price decline, "the company said, adding that the market seems slightly oversold in the short term.

Morgan Stanley added that unless demand further weakens, Brent oil prices may continue to remain around $75.

On this trading day, the OPEC crude oil market monthly report and EIA crude oil market monthly report will be released. Investors need to pay close attention to the API crude oil inventory series report.

In addition, investors need to continue to pay attention to relevant news on the geopolitical situation.

According to reports, Israel launched an airstrike on a tent camp in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip on Monday, causing several Palestinian casualties

According to Palestinian media reports on the 10th, the Israeli army's attack on Khan Younis in the Gaza Strip has resulted in at least 40 deaths and 60 injuries.

According to Iranian media reports, regarding the killing of Hamas leader Haniya in the Iranian capital Tehran on July 31, the Commander in Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hussein Salami, reiterated on September 8 that "Iran will make Israel punished for its wrongdoing." He reiterated that Iran's retaliatory measures will be "different.

Israel's attacks on Syria from the night of September 8th to the early morning of September 9th resulted in 14 deaths and 43 injuries. Faisal, the director of the Masyaf National Hospital in northwestern Syria? Haider stated that there are still 6 people in critical condition and the death toll may further increase.

According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Energy, the Russian military has attacked energy facilities in seven regions in the past day.

The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the Russian military has seized Memryk in eastern Ukraine.