On Wednesday morning (September 11th) in the Asian market, international oil prices remained weak, hovering around a year low. US crude oil is currently trading around $66.19 per barrel, and Brent crude is currently trading around $69.57 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures closed at their lowest level since December 2021 on Tuesday, after OPEC+lowered its demand forecasts for this year and 2025, overshadowing supply concerns caused by Tropical Storm Francine.

Brent crude oil futures closed down $2.65, or 3.69%, on Tuesday, settling at $69.19 per barrel. US crude oil futures closed down $2.96, or 4.31%, on Tuesday, settling at $65.75 per barrel.

After both rising by about 1% on Monday, the two major indicators of oil prices fell more than $3 on Tuesday, and US crude oil futures fell more than 5% at one point, reaching their lowest level since May 2023.

On Tuesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 to reflect data received so far this year, and also lowered its expectations for next year, marking the second consecutive time the organization has lowered its forecast.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stated in a monthly report that world oil demand will increase by 2.03 million barrels per day in 2024, lower than last month's forecast of an increase of 2.11 million barrels per day.

The downward revision further highlights the challenges faced by OPEC+, consisting of OPEC and oil producing allies led by Russia, in balancing the market. After oil prices hit their lowest point in 2024, OPEC+postponed plans to start increasing production last week.

OPEC has lowered its forecast for oil demand growth in major Asian countries in 2024 from 700000 barrels per day to 650000 barrels per day, with Asian countries being the main reason for the downward adjustment of global estimates. OPEC states that the world's second-largest economy is facing economic challenges and resistance from shifting towards clean fuels in its oil usage.

Looking ahead, the economic growth of major Asian countries is expected to continue to receive good support, "OPEC said in the report." However, unfavorable factors in the real estate industry and the increasing penetration of liquefied natural gas trucks and electric vehicles may drag down future demand for diesel and gasoline

The divergence among forecasters regarding the growth rate of oil demand in 2024 is greater than usual, partly due to differences in estimates for major Asian countries, and more broadly due to differing opinions on the pace of global transition to clean fuels. This downward adjustment still puts OPEC at the highest level of industry forecasts.

OPEC has also lowered its global demand growth forecast for 2025 from 1.78 million barrels per day to 1.74 million barrels per day.

However, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated on Tuesday that global oil demand will reach a new record high this year, but production growth will be lower than previously predicted.

According to EIA, it is expected that the average global oil demand this year will be around 103.1 million barrels per day, which is about 200000 barrels per day higher than the previously predicted 102.9 million barrels per day.

The institution stated that the average spot price of Brent crude oil on September 6th was $73 per barrel. On Tuesday, futures contracts linked to global benchmark crude oil fell below $70 for the first time since December 2021.

According to EIA, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) delays its production increase plan, the global average production is now expected to be 102.2 million barrels per day, lower than the previously predicted 102.4 million barrels per day.

OPEC+, consisting of OPEC and its allies, originally planned to increase production from October, but due to the global economic downturn and declining crude oil prices, they postponed this plan last week and will start increasing production from December.

OPEC lowered its demand growth forecast for this year to around 2 million barrels per day on Tuesday, still double the current EIA forecast of 1 million barrels per day.

EIA's forecast suggests that global oil demand will exceed production by approximately 900000 barrels per day this year, compared to the previous forecast of 500000 barrels per day.

EIA stated that despite growing concerns in the market about economic and oil demand growth, especially in major Asian countries, leading to a decline in oil prices, OPEC+production cuts mean that global oil production is lower than consumption.

Oil prices remain under pressure after the release of EIA forecasts, continuing to weigh on concerns among major Asian countries.

The data released on Tuesday showed that the export growth rate of major Asian countries in August was the fastest in nearly a year and a half, but imports were disappointing due to sluggish domestic demand.

Phil Flynn, Senior Analyst at Price Futures Group, stated that investors increasingly believe that the global economy will slow down.

Meanwhile, the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) announced on Tuesday that Tropical Storm Francine swept across the Gulf of Mexico, causing operators to shut down about a quarter of coastal crude oil production capacity.

A survey released by Reuters on Tuesday showed that US crude and distillate inventories are expected to increase last week, while gasoline inventories may decrease.

On average, 11 analysts surveyed by Reuters estimated that crude oil inventories increased by about 1 million barrels in the week ending September 6th.

According to analysts' estimates, gasoline inventories decreased by about 100000 barrels last week, while distillate inventories including diesel and heating oil are expected to increase by 300000 barrels.

The survey shows that the estimated utilization rate of refinery capacity has decreased by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous week's 93.3%.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its inventory report at 22:30 on Wednesday.

The latest API data shows that as of the week ending September 6th, US crude oil inventories decreased by 2.793 million barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 513000 barrels, while distillate inventory increased by 191000 barrels.

In terms of geopolitical situation, Russia stated on Tuesday that despite Ukraine's invasion of western Russia, the Russian military advanced 1000 square kilometers (390 square miles) in eastern Ukraine in August and September, and ruled out the possibility of any ceasefire negotiations with Kiev.

Sergei Shoigu, Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, said that Ukraine's invasion of the Kursk region of Russia on August 6 was aimed at enhancing Kiev's negotiating position and relocating Russian troops from the Donbass front in eastern Ukraine.

But Shoigu said that the Russian army is accelerating its offensive in Donbass, seizing nearly 1000 square kilometers of land in the first eight days of August and September.

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on Tuesday that it has occupied four villages on the eastern front line, but Ukraine's claims about the front line have been questioned.

Ukrainian President Zelensky did not provide detailed information about the ground combat, but praised the troops for holding their positions in the two most difficult areas in the east - Pokrovsk and Kulakhov.

Zelensky is almost daily calling on Western allies to provide more weapons and allow Ukraine to use these weapons to strike targets deep within Russia. US President Biden stated on Tuesday that the US government is "addressing this issue".

Public data and battlefield reports show that the Russian military's advance in Donbass in August was the fastest in about two years.

Shoigu said on Russian state television that as long as the Ukrainian military is still on Russian sovereign territory, Russia will not negotiate with Ukraine, which is also the position of President Putin.

The Russian military has already occupied about one-fifth of Ukraine's territory and is currently attempting to occupy the entire Donbass region.

In terms of the US presidential election, Republican presidential candidate Trump and Democratic Vice President Harris will have their first and possibly only debate on Tuesday evening local time, which could become a key factor in their race for the White House.

The debate hosted by ABC News will be held at 09:00 Beijing time on Wednesday, with only eight weeks left until the election on November 5th. The competition between the two candidates is very fierce, and the outcome is unpredictable. A few days after the debate, some states will begin early voting.

This confrontation is particularly important for Harris, as polls show that over a quarter of potential voters believe that they do not know Harris well enough compared to the well-known Trump.

This nationally broadcasted debate will be the first meeting between the two candidates, following weeks of personal attacks by Trump and his allies against Harris, including insults of racism and gender discrimination.

Trump's advisers and Republican colleagues urged him to focus on issues of voter concern such as illegal immigration and high prices on Tuesday, and portrayed Harris as too liberal for the country.

Harris said in a radio interview broadcasted on Monday, "He has no bottom line, we should be prepared

The audience will pay attention to her stance on various issues. But equally important, they will also pay attention to how she responds to Trump.

This 90 minute debate will be held at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia. According to the agreement of the campaign team, there will be no audience at the debate venue, and the microphone will be muted when the candidate does not speak.

Continuous daily chart of US crude oil