On Wednesday (September 11th), during the Asian market session, the US dollar index maintained its intraday decline trend and is currently around 101.36; Spot gold continues to rise, currently trading around $2521 per ounce. On this trading day, investors will focus on the US CPI data, which is expected to trigger significant market trends. The Kshitij Consultancy Service recently published an article on Monday, providing a forward-looking analysis of the future trends of the US dollar index, EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, and GBP/USD.

The Kshitij consulting service team wrote in the article that the US dollar index has fallen from its high of 101.76, but may soon rise to 102. Of note are today's US CPI data and tomorrow's European Central Bank policy meeting.

At 20:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for the United States will be released. This will be the "last piece of the puzzle" before the Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting, and whether the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points or not depends on it.

Federal Reserve policy makers have made it clear that the time has come to cut interest rates appropriately. But the biggest debate on Wall Street currently is whether the Federal Reserve will lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points from the current target range of 5.25% -5.50% or by a significant 50 basis points.

According to authoritative media surveys, the year-on-year growth rate of the US CPI in August is expected to decrease from 2.9% to 2.6%, while the year-on-year growth rate of the core CPI is expected to remain at 3.2%.

In addition, the US August CPI and core CPI are expected to rise by 0.2% month on month, with the same increase as before.

Analyst Eren Sengezer pointed out that if the core CPI rose 0.4% or more month on month, the yield of US treasury bond bonds might rebound, causing gold to lose its foothold. On the other hand, if the data is equal to or lower than market expectations, it may make it difficult for the US dollar to attract investors, thereby helping gold rise.

Peter A. Grant, Vice President and Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals, predicts that gold prices will reach a historic high. The spot gold price hit a historic high of $2531.60 per ounce on August 20th

Kinesis Money market analyst Carlo Alberto De Casa said, "If inflation data falls far below expectations and raises hopes of a 50 basis point rate cut, then gold prices may hit a historic high

The Federal Reserve will hold a meeting on September 17-18, and CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" tool shows that the market currently expects a 67% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 33% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at the meeting.

Seeking Alpha analyst Damir Tokic said, "Unless the core CPI is much higher than expected, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. If the core CPI growth rate is lower than expected by 0.1% month on month, it may increase the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut

Seeking Alpha writer Chris Lau said that unless CPI falls significantly below expectations, the market should not expect the Federal Reserve to respond positively and choose to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.

The Kshitij consulting service team has written an article on the trends of major currency pairs, and the following are the main points of the article:

US dollar index

The US dollar index has fallen from yesterday's high of 101.76. For now, we still believe that the US dollar index will rise to 102 in the coming trading days. Pay attention to the US CPI data scheduled to be released today. In the near future, the US dollar index may remain within the short-term range of 100.50-102.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD is approaching 1.10 downwards. Today's US CPI and tomorrow's European Central Bank policy meeting will be very important, as they will determine whether the currency pair will rebound from 1.10 or continue its downward trend to 1.0950 in the coming trading days. Although the market expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates tomorrow, it may also keep rates unchanged. EUR/USD may remain volatile in the coming trading days.

USD/JPY and EUR/JPY

The USD/JPY reached a high of 143.71 at one point, followed by a decline. On the other hand, EUR/JPY failed to break through 159, but instead reversed from 158.64. If the downward trend continues, these two currency pairs may continue to decline to 140 and 156 in the short term.

AUD/USD

If it is confirmed to fall below 0.6650, AUD/USD may fall towards 0.66 in the short term.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD needs to remain above 1.3085 in order to rise towards 1.31 and higher levels; Otherwise, the exchange rate may soon become easy to test at 1.30-1.2950.