瑞郎大幅升值引发瑞士大幅降息呼声fxcue.com

瑞郎升至近10年来最高水准，令今年主要央行首次大幅降息的前景升温。尽管经济学家预测瑞士央行将在9月26日的下次会议上再次降息25个基点，但降息50个基点的可能性一直在稳步上升。目前的市场定价暗示，这种可能性约为三分之一，而仅仅一个月前还是零。瑞郎的走强正在限制出口，压低进口价格，而目前的通胀水平已经完全在瑞士央行的目标之内，而且接近三年来的低点。三菱日联银行(MUFG Bank)、瑞银集团(UBS Group AG)和美国银行(Bank of America Corp.)的外汇策略师说，为了阻止瑞郎进一步升值，政策制定者应该采取更有力的行动。三菱日联银行外汇研究主管德里克·哈尔潘尼(Derek Halpenny)表示:“他们不怕给市场带来意外。要撼动外汇市场，这可能是我们所需要的。”瑞士央行将在美联储9月会议一周后制定政策。尽管市场认为美联储降息50个基点的可能性约为20%，但这种可能性一直在下降。自7月初以来，瑞郎兑美元已升值约6%。周三，瑞郎兑美元上涨0.4%，至1美元兑0.8434瑞郎。与此同时，流行的套息交易(通过借入低收益货币融资)开始步履蹒跚，流入避险资产的资金增加。上个月，瑞郎兑欧元汇率触及2015年以来的最高水平。在这种背景下，瑞士出口商敦促瑞士央行“迅速采取行动”，阻止瑞郎升值。他们说，瑞郎升值威胁到海外销售的复苏。今年头三个月，瑞士央行基本上没有干预外汇市场。4月至6月的季度干预数据将于9月底公布。"瑞士央行将很难对抗市场。"瑞银外汇策略师伊万·贝尔图克斯（Yvan Berthoux）表示。他看到了降息50个基点的风险，尽管该行的经济学家预计降息幅度会更小。并非所有人都相信政策制定者需要大幅降息。野村国际(Nomura International Plc) 10国集团外汇策略主管多米尼克·邦宁（Dominic Bunning）表示，定期降息25个基点，再加上直接干预汇市，"可能足以"阻止瑞郎进一步走强。他认为进一步降息的可能性很低。瑞士央行比全球其他央行更早启动了货币宽松政策，并在今年的两次决策中都下调了利率，使其政策利率降至1.25%。一年多来，通胀一直在该央行0%至2%的目标范围内，8月份为1.1%。美国银行10国集团（G10）外汇策略主管阿塔纳西奥斯·瓦姆瓦基迪斯（Athanasios Vamvakidis）称，"他们的通胀率太低，他们需要本币走软。我认为他们应该下调50个基点。”

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Crude oil, focus on resistance at $70.6-71.5 above and support at $69.3-68.5 below.

Today, the rebound in gold trading is mainly driven by short selling, supplemented by buying during a pullback. The short-term focus is on the resistance line of 2620-2625 above, and the short-term focus is on the support line of 2600-2598 below.

Buy more directly near the current gold price of 2617, with targets of 2642, 2650, and 2664; If three points of 2642, 2650, and 2664 are given for the first time, short selling is allowed; If you buy more in batches around three o'clock on 2614, 2611, and 2605;

Today's gold trading strategy: Short selling near 2630-2628, stop loss at 2636, target at 2620-2610. Suggest buying long at 2610-2612, stop loss at 2505, target at 2620-2625;

Gold first fell close to 2602 or 2594 and bought long, then rose close to 2624 or yesterday's high and sold short. Crude oil still tends to fluctuate mainly today, buying long below 68.8 or yesterday's low, and selling short above yesterday's high or 70.7.

Today, gold is mainly focused on rebound short selling, with a short-term focus on the resistance line of 2628-2633. If it does not break through, short selling can be done. The short-term focus below is on the first-line support of 2600-2595, and it is advisable to buy more lightly.

Short term focus on the resistance line of 70.5-71.0 above crude oil, and short-term focus on the support line of 68.4-67.9 below.

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瑞郎大幅升值引发瑞士大幅降息呼声

﻿苹果公司在爱尔兰130亿欧元税单的欧盟法庭之战中败诉

中国需求下跌拖累贵州茅台在秋季假期前的交易

为巴菲特掌管保险业务近40年的阿吉特·贾恩 出售了所持一半以上的伯克希尔股份

OpenAI推出了一系列具有“推理”能力的新人工智能模型

惠誉称：美联储将选择缓慢放松政策 因为在通胀问题上“仍有工作要做”

甲骨文公司大股东拉里·埃里森一度超过杰夫·贝佐斯成为世界第二富有的人

瑞郎大幅升值引发瑞士大幅降息呼声

富国银行：美国股市短期内不会创出新高 三大不利因素将限制股指涨幅

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Trader

Crude oil, focus on resistance at $70.6-71.5 above and support at $69.3-68.5 below.

Today, the rebound in gold trading is mainly driven by short selling, supplemented by buying during a pullback. The short-term focus is on the resistance line of 2620-2625 above, and the short-term focus is on the support line of 2600-2598 below.

Buy more directly near the current gold price of 2617, with targets of 2642, 2650, and 2664; If three points of 2642, 2650, and 2664 are given for the first time, short selling is allowed; If you buy more in batches around three o'clock on 2614, 2611, and 2605;

Today's gold trading strategy: Short selling near 2630-2628, stop loss at 2636, target at 2620-2610. Suggest buying long at 2610-2612, stop loss at 2505, target at 2620-2625;

Gold first fell close to 2602 or 2594 and bought long, then rose close to 2624 or yesterday's high and sold short. Crude oil still tends to fluctuate mainly today, buying long below 68.8 or yesterday's low, and selling short above yesterday's high or 70.7.

Today, gold is mainly focused on rebound short selling, with a short-term focus on the resistance line of 2628-2633. If it does not break through, short selling can be done. The short-term focus below is on the first-line support of 2600-2595, and it is advisable to buy more lightly.

Short term focus on the resistance line of 70.5-71.0 above crude oil, and short-term focus on the support line of 68.4-67.9 below.

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苹果公司在爱尔兰130亿欧元税单的欧盟法庭之战中败诉

为巴菲特掌管保险业务近40年的阿吉特·贾恩出售了所持一半以上的伯克希尔股份

惠誉称：美联储将选择缓慢放松政策因为在通胀问题上“仍有工作要做”

富国银行：美国股市短期内不会创出新高三大不利因素将限制股指涨幅