At the beginning of the Asian market on Wednesday (September 25th), international oil prices fluctuated narrowly, with US crude oil currently trading around $71.50 per barrel. Oil prices rose about 2% on Tuesday, hitting a three week high, as the world's largest crude oil importer, Asia's major powers, will take monetary stimulus measures, and people are concerned that the escalating conflict in the Middle East may affect the region's supply. In addition, OPEC has raised its medium - to long-term global oil demand forecast

However, the oil market gave up some of its earlier gains at the end of Monday, as it became increasingly clear that hurricanes threatening the US Gulf Coast could avoid most offshore oil and gas producing areas and hit Florida. The oil and natural gas production in this region accounts for 15% and 2% of the total production in the United States, respectively.

Brent crude oil futures rose $1.27, or 1.7%, on Tuesday, settling at $75.17 per barrel; US crude oil futures rose $1.19, or 1.7%, on Tuesday, settling at $71.56. Brent crude oil reached its highest closing level since September 2nd.

Claudio Galimberti, global market analysis director of Rystad Energy, said in a report: "The largest economic stimulus plan since the COVID-19 epidemic was announced by major Asian governments, coupled with the sudden rise of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East... has hit the bearish sentiment that dominated the oil market in the past three weeks."

The central banks of major Asian countries offered the strongest stimulus measures since the COVID-19 epidemic to pull the economy out of the deflationary predicament and achieve the government's growth goals again. However, analysts warned that more financial support is essential to achieve these goals.

To boost the economy and stabilize the market, the financial regulatory authorities of major Asian countries announced a series of stimulus measures on Tuesday. The central banks of major Asian countries have sent out a "big gift package" of reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and interest rate reductions for existing housing loans, and have unified the minimum down payment ratio for first-time and second home mortgages.

In terms of the stock market, the central banks of major Asian countries will create monetary policy tools to support the stock market for the first time, while the China Securities Regulatory Commission will release documents to promote the entry of long-term funds into the market and encourage mergers and acquisitions.

In the important oil producing region of the Middle East, Israel's airstrike on Beirut killed a senior Hezbollah commander, and cross-border rocket attacks from both sides have heightened concerns about a full-scale war in the region.

According to Israeli military sources, Ibrahim Qubaisi, the head of the Hezbollah missile unit in Lebanon, was killed in an Israeli airstrike on the capital Beirut on the 24th. Earlier that day, the Israeli Defense Forces announced that Israeli fighter jets had launched "targeted" airstrikes on the Lebanese capital Beirut. The Lebanese Ministry of Public Health reported that the attack on the southern suburbs of Beirut has resulted in 6 deaths and 15 injuries

At around 18:00 local time on the 24th, the Israeli Defense Forces announced that the Israeli Air Force is conducting a new round of "large-scale" airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, marking the fourth round of airstrikes launched by the Israeli military on Lebanese territory within a day. The information released by the Israeli military shows that the main targets of the previous three rounds of attacks were Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley.

On the 24th local time, Hezbollah in Lebanon announced the use of the Fadi 3 missile to attack the Israeli Samson base. This is the first time that Hezbollah has used this type of missile. Hezbollah in Lebanon previously announced that it had launched attacks on Israeli targets using Fadi 1 and Fadi 2 missiles in the early hours of the 24th.

According to Al Jazeera, Hezbollah in Lebanon said in a telegram that it fired 50 missiles at the Israeli military base in Dado near the city of Caiffat. It is said that the base is the operational headquarters of the Israeli Army's Northern Command. The Israeli military has not yet commented on the attack, but an hour ago, the Israeli military stated that it would launch a "large-scale" strike on Lebanese territory.

Two Israeli officials and a Western diplomat told Axios that as the fighting between the Lebanese extremist group Hezbollah and the Israeli military escalated sharply, Hezbollah recently urged Iran to launch attacks on Israel, but Iran has so far maintained restraint. Iran's direct attack on Israel will greatly further destabilize the region and may involve the United States in the conflict.

Two Israeli officials said that Iranian officials told Hezbollah officials that the timing of launching an attack on Israel was "inappropriate" as Iranian President Pezekiah is currently attending the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Pezehiziyan told reporters in New York on Monday that Israel is seeking a broader war in the region and emphasized that Iran does not want to fall into this' trap '.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has raised its global medium - to long-term oil demand forecast in an annual outlook report, citing an increase in oil demand in India, Africa, and the Middle East, and a slowdown in the transition to electric vehicles and clean fuels.

As concerns about the labor market intensify, the US consumer confidence index in September hit its largest decline in three years, which also suppressed the rise in oil prices. However, the US dollar index also recorded its largest single day decline in nearly a month on Tuesday, providing support for oil prices.

The latest API data shows that both crude oil and gasoline inventories in the United States decreased significantly last week, which is expected to provide further upward momentum for oil prices. Investors need to pay attention to further news on US EIA crude oil inventories and geopolitical situation.

Specific data shows that API crude oil inventories decreased by 4.33 million barrels, with market expectations for a decrease of 1.2 million barrels; API gasoline inventory decreased by 3.438 million barrels, with market expectations for an increase of 230000 barrels.

(Continuous daily chart of US crude oil)

OPEC raises medium - to long-term global oil demand forecast to ensure demand does not peak by 2050

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has raised its global medium - to long-term oil demand forecast in an annual outlook report, citing an increase in oil demand in India, Africa, and the Middle East, and a slowdown in the transition to electric vehicles and clean fuels.

In its 2024 World Oil Outlook report released on Tuesday, OPEC predicts that the growth in oil demand will take longer than the expectations of forecasting agencies such as BP and the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The sustained increase in oil consumption for a longer period of time will have a boosting effect on OPEC, whose 12 member countries heavily rely on oil revenue for their economies. In order to support its viewpoint, OPEC expects that the "ambitious" clean energy targets will face more resistance and mentions several global automakers planning to lower their electrification targets.

OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais wrote in the preface of the report released in Brazil: "Oil demand will not peak during the forecast period." Brazil is not a member of OPEC and the organization is seeking to establish closer relations with Brazil.

In the past year, people have further realized that only when new energy is truly ready can the world gradually use them on a large scale

OPEC predicts that by 2045, world oil demand will reach 118.9 million barrels per day, which is about 2.9 million barrels per day higher than the forecast in last year's report. The report extends the forecast period to 2050, when oil demand is expected to reach 120.1 million barrels per day.

This is much higher than the demand forecast of other institutions in the industry for 2050. BP predicts that oil consumption will peak in 2025 and drop to 75 million barrels per day by 2050. ExxonMobil expects oil demand to remain above 100 million barrels per day by 2050, similar to current levels.

OPEC has been calling for increased investment in the oil industry and has stated that the industry will require $17.4 trillion in investment by 2050, compared to an estimated $14 trillion needed by 2045 last year.

All policy makers and stakeholders need to work together to ensure a long-term investment friendly environment, "wrote Geiss.

OPEC has also raised its medium-term demand forecast, citing a stronger economic backdrop than last year as inflationary pressures weaken and central banks around the world begin to cut interest rates.

OPEC predicts that global oil demand will reach 111 million barrels per day in 2028, an increase of 800000 barrels per day from last year's forecast. It is expected to reach 112.3 million barrels per day by 2029.

OPEC's demand forecast for 2029 is over 6 million barrels per day higher than IEA's forecast, which stated in June that oil demand for 2029 will remain stable at 105.6 million barrels per day. This gap exceeds the total production of OPEC member countries Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.

OPEC predicts that by 2050, there will be 2.9 billion cars on the roads, an increase of 1.2 billion from 2023. The report states that although electric vehicles will continue to grow, by 2050, vehicles powered by internal combustion engines will account for over 70% of the global car fleet.

The report states, "Electric vehicles are expected to gain a larger market share, but obstacles still exist, such as the power grid, battery manufacturing capabilities, and access to key minerals

The OPEC+alliance of oil producing countries, consisting of allies such as OPEC and Russia, is cutting supply to support the market. The report suggests that as US production reaches its peak in 2030, non OPEC+oil producing countries' production will also peak in the early 2030s, and OPEC+countries' share of the oil market will increase from 49% in 2023 to 52% in 2050.

Survey: US crude oil and oil product inventories are expected to decline last week

A Reuters survey released on Tuesday showed that US crude oil and oil inventories are expected to decline last week.

On average, 10 analysts surveyed by Reuters estimated that US crude oil inventories fell by about 1.4 million barrels in the week ending September 20th.

This survey was conducted prior to the release of inventory reports by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday at 22:30.

EIA reported last Wednesday (September 18) that US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels to 417.5 million barrels in the week ending September 13, while analysts expected a decrease of 500000 barrels.

According to analysts' estimates, gasoline inventories decreased by 20000 barrels last week, while distillate fuel inventories, including diesel and heating oil, decreased by approximately 1.6 million barrels.

The survey shows that the estimated capacity utilization rate of refineries has decreased by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous week's 92.1%.