The USD/JPY is at a high level, and the JPY cross market has seen greater gains

2024-06-26 2347

The USD/JPY is at a high level but still below 160, with a greater increase in the JPY cross market;

① The USD/JPY is at a high level in Asian trading, currently trading around 159.79, with resistance levels still above 160.00.

② Speculators are interested in stop loss orders above 160.00, but there are Japanese exporters and option related sales.

③ A large number of options expired at 160.00 this week, with a total of 628 million US dollars today. On Thursday, there was $901 million, and on Friday, there was $2.1 billion - which will help curb foreign exchange.

④ However, there were also a large number of options expiring below Wednesday, with a total of $2.7 billion around 159.00, providing support for the exchange rate. However, the yield on US Treasury bonds has weakened and does not support the exchange rate. The two-year yield on US Treasury bonds is 4.718%, and the 10-year yield is 4.263%.

⑤ Traders expect the intervention threat to decrease today, but if it breaks through 160.00, there will be fluctuations.

⑥ There is a large stop loss order above 160.00, which may cause a significant increase in the USD/JPY. Consider the possibility of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in July, but the probability is still relatively low.

⑦ Tokyo's risk appetite has increased, with the Nikkei Index rising 1.4% to 39726 points, the highest level in two months.

⑧ Some yen crosses even saw greater gains than the US dollar/yen, with strong arbitrage demand. The Australian dollar/yen was at 105.92-106.76, the highest point since July November 2007

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