On Monday (September 30th), in the morning session of the Asian market, international oil prices fluctuated and slightly fell, with US crude oil currently trading around $68.28 per barrel. Oil prices closed slightly higher last Friday, but fell more than 3% on the weekly chart as investors assessed expectations of increased global supply and new stimulus measures from Asia's largest crude oil importing country.

Brent crude oil futures closed up $0.38, or 0.53%, last Friday, settling at $71.89 per barrel. US crude oil futures closed up $0.51, or 0.75%, last Friday, with a settlement price of $68.18.

Last week, Brent crude oil futures fell by about 3%, and US crude oil futures fell by about 5%.

On the one hand, OPEC+plans to increase production starting in December, which has a particularly significant impact on oil prices and was the main bearish factor for the oil market last week.

On the other hand, the withdrawal of multiple stimulus policies by major powers, the expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East still provide some support for oil prices.

Two sources said last Thursday that the OPEC+alliance, consisting of OPEC and its allies including Russia, will continue to implement its plan to increase production by 180000 barrels per day per month starting from December.

A report in the Financial Times last Wednesday stated that the reason for the planned increase in production is Saudi Arabia's decision to abandon its $100 oil price target in order to gain market share.

However, an OPEC+source said about the production increase in December, 'When the compensation plans and production figures for these countries in September become clear, we can increase production because the impact of the increase can be ignored.'.

In the United States, after Hurricane Helen made landfall in Florida on Thursday evening, some operators have begun to resume operations along the Gulf Coast, including Chevron CVX On Friday, N redeployed personnel and resumed production on the company's operational platform.

The central banks of major Asian countries lowered reserve requirement ratios and interest rates last Friday, as their governments are launching their final stimulus offensive to bring economic growth back to their target of around 5% for this year.

After showing a greater sense of urgency towards the increasing economic resistance, the market expects Asian powers to announce more fiscal measures before the National Day holiday starting on October 1st.

Despite active stimulus measures taken by major Asian countries, concerns about oversupply caused by OPEC's plan to increase production have driven down oil prices, "said Aegis Hedging analysts in a report

The growth rate of consumer spending in the United States in August was slightly lower than expected, but this has hardly changed people's expectations for continued steady economic growth in the third quarter. At the same time, the year-on-year increase in prices has dropped to the smallest level in over three and a half years.

Israel claimed to have bombed Houthi targets in Yemen on Sunday (September 29) and continued airstrikes on Lebanon, expanding its confrontation with Iran's allies in the region two days after killing Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

Israel stated that the airstrike on the port of Hodeidah in Yemen was a response to the recent missile attacks launched by Houthi militants against Israel. The outside world is concerned that the Middle East conflict may spiral out of control and pull Iran and Israel's main ally, the United States, into the fray.

The health department controlled by the Houthi armed forces said that at least four people have died and 29 have been injured.

At the same time as the attack, Israel is also attacking more targets within Lebanon. Over the past two weeks, Israel's indiscriminate bombing of Lebanon has resulted in the deaths of several senior leaders of Hezbollah and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people.

The Lebanese Ministry of Health stated that Israel's attack on Sunday resulted in at least 105 deaths, with 14 healthcare workers killed in airstrikes over the past two days.

Israel vowed on Sunday to continue launching attacks. We need to continue to inflict heavy damage on Hezbollah, "said Herzi Halevi, Chief of Staff of the Israeli Defense Forces.

The death of Nasrallah dealt a particularly significant blow to Hezbollah, which he had led for 32 years, and subsequently launched rockets into Israel. Iran has stated that it will seek revenge for the death of Nasrallah.

The United States urges a diplomatic resolution to the conflict in Lebanon, but also authorizes the US military to increase its troops in the region.

When asked if a full-scale war can be avoided in the Middle East, US President Biden said, "It must be avoided." He stated that he will hold talks with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

US Senator Mark Kelly said that the bomb used by Israel to kill Nasrallah was a 2000 pound (900 kilogram) American made guided weapon.

According to sources, after Nasrallah's murder, Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was transferred to a safe location.

The Israeli military claimed to have attacked dozens of targets within Lebanon, including launchers and weapons depots, and intercepted eight projectiles from the Lebanese direction and one from the Red Sea direction. The Israeli military also claimed that dozens of Israeli planes attacked power plants, Ras Isa Port, and Hodeidah Port in Yemen, accusing the Houthis of cooperating with Iraqi militias under Iranian command in their operations.

Our message is clear - for us, no place is too far away, "said Israeli Defense Minister Galant

Analysts pointed out that after the continuous decline in oil prices, although Saudi Arabia tends to increase production slightly in the future, there are also market expectations that production may be suspended, and the market is waiting for Saudi Arabia's subsequent production reduction agreement. It is expected that the recent disturbances in the Middle East situation will not affect the rise of oil prices, but will remain volatile. This is because the market's sensitivity to geopolitical factors has decreased, and there is a large amount of idle production capacity in the Middle East. Therefore, the market is more concerned about economic downturns and weakened demand. The rebound in oil prices is average, and the market will continue to consolidate in the future, paying attention to the pressure around $70/barrel of US crude oil.

Continuous daily chart of US crude oil