The weakening of the Japanese yen drives the Japanese stock market index up, beware of Israel's targeted ground attack

2024-10-01 1255

On October 1st, Asian stock markets performed flat at the beginning of the fourth quarter, while the weakening of the yen pushed the Japanese stock market index up.

The Nikkei 225 index rose by as much as 1.9%, while the benchmark index fell almost 5% the day before after the ruling party's leadership election. After rising in the morning session, the Asian stock market index remained almost unchanged, while the Australian stock market fell. China's A-share market and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index are closed due to holidays. US stock index futures fluctuate between ups and downs.

In the United States, the S&P 500 index has risen for the fourth consecutive quarter - the longest streak since 2021. The Nasdaq 100 index, dominated by technology stocks, has also achieved similar performance.

The bull market has already passed its weakest third quarter in history and is likely to last at least until the end of the year, as profits remain strong, interest rates are falling, and consumers are still spending, "said Emily Bowersock Hill of Bowersock Capital Partners.

We expect the fourth quarter to be similar to the third quarter - with still high volatility but a strong ending, "she added.

On Tuesday, the USD/JPY slightly weakened after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the Fed would lower interest rates "over time" and reiterated that the overall economy remained robust. Shigeru Ishiba is expected to be confirmed as the new Prime Minister of Japan on Tuesday, catching investors off guard as they had previously bet that his opponents would launch more monetary stimulus measures.

David Chao, a strategist at Invesco Asset Management, said, "I still believe that global risk assets will perform well by the end of the year because the macroeconomic background and growth are more resilient than previously expected. Therefore, the recent market narrative has shifted from questioning the slowdown in the US economy to focusing on the magnitude and speed of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the remaining time

The market is also preparing for the potential impact of Israel's "targeted ground attack" in Lebanon. When investors assess the risk of the escalation of the Middle East conflict, oil prices remain stable.

In Australia, retail sales grew more than expected in August, with tax breaks and warmer weather driving up household spending. Boosted by this data, the Australian dollar performed better than other major currencies. Australian iron ore miners' stocks fell as iron ore prices slightly fell after reaching their highest point since early July on Monday.

In Japan, trading company stocks continue to rise as Berkshire Hathaway hires banks for potential yen bond issuances.

After achieving the largest increase in 16 years on Monday, the Chinese market entered a one week holiday. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, the MSCI China Index outperformed the emerging market index excluding Chinese stocks in September by nearly 22 percentage points, the largest performance gap since June 1999.

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